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Prediction markets for Fabien
OptionProbability
20
18
15
14
7
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
58
29
16
15
13
11
11
9
9
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
OptionVotes
1325
734
A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field
Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM
18.11%chance
11836
OptionVotes
1104
960
Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?
Jan 25, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.15%chance
15582
OptionVotes
226
110
A Fortune 500 company will use a Roblox experience as part of their recruiting process
Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:03 PM
17.08%chance
16325
OptionVotes
1004
879
For 17+ verified people in 17+ experiences: Thousands of adults will meet for the first time in Roblox dating experience
Sep 10, 3:01 PMSep 8, 3:00 PM
91.28%chance
5270
OptionVotes
345
27
Some Roblox creators will make more money from selling physical merchandise on Roblox than virtual merchandise
Sep 10, 2:57 PMSep 9, 2:56 PM
81.65%chance
4156
OptionVotes
234
43
A top fashion designer will be discovered on Roblox, without having any experience in physical fashion
Sep 10, 2:55 PMSep 9, 2:54 PM
34.74%chance
8123
OptionVotes
187
183
We will share a universal civility metric, and show that for most players, it increases over time
Sep 10, 2:57 PMSep 9, 2:57 PM
69.9%chance
687
OptionVotes
170
106
Will the first AI to achieve 90% accuracy at interview APPS problems primarily use text?
Oct 2, 2:59 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM
82.86%chance
266
OptionVotes
130
43
Will the first AI to pass a 2-hour adversarial Turing test primarily use text?
Oct 2, 2:58 PMOct 10, 6:59 AM
70.01%chance
434
OptionVotes
143
89
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