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Prediction markets for Fred
What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?
Feb 24, 11:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM
24063985
OptionProbability
99
98
98
97
94
93
92
92
90
90
89
87
87
86
85
80
78
77
74
73
72
70
70
69
68
68
65
65
64
64
57
57
55
55
54
54
43
42
41
40
39
38
38
34
32
32
31
30
29
29
29
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
21
21
15
15
15
15
13
12
11
11
11
10
10
8
7
7
7
6
6
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
64.27%chance
1422593
OptionVotes
13224
7640
OptionProbability
80
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands after Dick Schoof?
Jul 2, 10:22 AMJul 9, 8:59 PM
192594
OptionProbability
23
16
12
8
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.45%chance
10447
OptionVotes
1267
939
Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)
Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8247
OptionProbability
29
19
15
12
9
5
4
3
2
2
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2026?
Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
64.51%chance
7190
OptionVotes
159
63
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?
Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
62.99%chance
568
OptionVotes
115
103
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?
Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
61.21%chance
455
OptionVotes
134
91
OptionProbability
26
26
26
22
OptionProbability
70
36
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2028?
Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.99%chance
11
OptionVotes
71
69
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