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Prediction markets for Fred
What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?
Feb 24, 11:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM
276102125
OptionProbability
99
98
97
97
95
95
95
94
94
94
94
94
93
91
90
90
87
87
84
84
83
81
79
78
70
69
68
66
65
63
63
61
59
57
57
52
45
42
42
35
35
34
32
30
30
30
29
27
27
26
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
21
18
15
14
14
13
12
12
11
10
9
8
8
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?
Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM
63.7%chance
18840932
OptionVotes
1325
755
Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
55.12%chance
2236307
OptionVotes
10893
9215
Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.45%chance
10447
OptionVotes
1267
939
Who will win Gold in the Men's 100 metres at the 2028 Summer Olympics?
Feb 8, 11:07 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM
3251
OptionProbability
16
14
10
10
8
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)
Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8247
OptionProbability
29
19
15
12
9
5
4
3
2
2
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?
Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
62.99%chance
568
OptionVotes
115
103
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?
Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
61.21%chance
455
OptionVotes
134
91
Who will win Gold in the Men's 100 metres at the 2032 Summer Olympics?
Feb 8, 11:11 AMOct 29, 11:59 PM
150
OptionProbability
42
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
70
36
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2028?
Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.99%chance
11
OptionVotes
71
69
ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?
Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
33
33
33
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