Gap News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Gap
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
53.23%chance
9083678
OptionVotes
1321
337
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?
Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.93%chance
252220
OptionVotes
1028
442
Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?
Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM
13.36%chance
14938
OptionVotes
1277
916
Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?
Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
8.61%chance
11715
OptionProbability
1249
958
Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
73.23%chance
14560
OptionVotes
1156
931
OptionVotes
178
79
The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years
May 4, 7:06 PMMay 4, 7:05 PM
41.85%chance
5190
OptionVotes
93
86
AI Companion Gender Gap: Men vs Women Romantic Preference by 2030
Jul 20, 5:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
46.31%chance
10133
OptionVotes
108
93
Will a road crossing the Darien Gap have finished construction by 2050?
Aug 16, 11:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
42.4%chance
778
OptionVotes
142
120
Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?
Jul 16, 10:00 PMJan 1, 10:15 PM
460
Will Fundamental Development Gap Map stay relevant and updated by 2027?
Apr 20, 4:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
46.41%chance
27
OptionVotes
107
93
Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?
May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM
51%chance
37
OptionVotes
71
69