Gary Marcus News

Google’s ‘Nano Banana’ AI Model Launches as Higgsfield Offers Year-Long Free Use

10 months ago

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.21%chance

389146767

OptionVotes

YES

8075

6113

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.02%chance

12080421

OptionVotes

YES

5458

5064

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.7%chance

12754758

OptionVotes

YES

1667

1129

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3832368

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.75%chance

9327406

OptionVotes

YES

1872

1109

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

YES

2867

552

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

YES

1897

748

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50%chance

11815407

OptionVotes

YES

1704

1259

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.09%chance

124819

OptionVotes

YES

5494

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93%chance

444365

OptionVotes

YES

2605

751

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

27.85%chance

363784

OptionVotes

YES

997

978

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Dec 25, 9:09 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.45%chance

23656

OptionVotes

YES

997

822

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In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Latest stories

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