Gary Marcus News

NO

YES

YES

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

The bet will be annulled

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

NO

NO

NO

NO

YES

NO

NO

Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.

We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).

No country will take a decisive lead in the GenAI “race”.

Work on new approaches such as world models and neurosymbolic will escalate.

Backlash to Generative AI and radical deregulation will escalate.