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Prediction markets for Gary Marcus
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.21%chance
389146767
OptionVotes
8075
6113
OptionVotes
5458
5064
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.7%chance
12754758
OptionVotes
1667
1129
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
3832368
OptionProbability
90
80
78
74
67
65
45
28
26
23
23
20
5
1
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)
Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
86.75%chance
9327406
OptionVotes
1872
1109
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
90.97%chance
11626804
OptionVotes
2867
552
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
77.32%chance
10519439
OptionVotes
1897
748
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
50%chance
11815407
OptionVotes
1704
1259
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.09%chance
124819
OptionVotes
5494
16
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
93%chance
444365
OptionVotes
2605
751
Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
27.85%chance
363784
OptionVotes
997
978
Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
Dec 25, 9:09 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
86.45%chance
23656
OptionVotes
997
822
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