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Prediction markets for Greta Thunberg
Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?
Jan 4, 7:18 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
7513519
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
97
86
84
81
78
78
75
74
73
69
68
65
65
65
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
60
59
59
55
54
54
54
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
48
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
41
41
41
39
39
39
39
36
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
31
31
31
30
30
28
28
23
23
22
22
21
18
17
14
14
9
8
7
5
5
Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?
Sep 29, 1:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.92%chance
717647
OptionVotes
2223
1818
Will Greta Thunberg receive the Nobel peace prize before she dies?
Oct 30, 5:33 PMNov 7, 4:59 AM
11.86%chance
253119
OptionVotes
1360
908
Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
May 14, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
652944
OptionProbability
55
12
10
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
100
100
100
83
76
71
71
65
61
61
59
57
55
55
55
52
52
52
52
50
50
50
48
43
40
40
31
27
Will Greta Thunberg be sentenced to prison before 2030
Mar 13, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
18.66%chance
212097
OptionVotes
1030
958
Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?
Sep 6, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30%chance
331574
OptionVotes
1123
936
Will Greta Thunberg run for public office before the end of 2035?
Jan 15, 7:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.2%chance
19357
OptionVotes
1125
803
Will Greta Thunberg get a boyfriend or SO by EOY2032?
Jan 26, 10:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
77.11%chance
13190
OptionVotes
184
54
OptionVotes
111
90
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