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Prediction markets for Greta Thunberg
OptionProbability
73
11
9
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which of these famous people will reach lifetime two or more offspring by mid 2035?
Jan 4, 7:18 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
7212459
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
91
81
78
75
74
73
69
68
67
65
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55
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25
23
22
18
18
17
7
5
5
🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mar 12, 3:28 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM
359598
OptionProbability
59
9
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?
Sep 29, 1:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.79%chance
687073
OptionVotes
2118
1891
Will Greta Thunberg receive the Nobel peace prize before she dies?
Oct 30, 5:33 PMNov 7, 4:59 AM
11.86%chance
253119
OptionVotes
1360
908
Will Greta Thunberg be sentenced to prison before 2030
Mar 13, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
18.66%chance
212097
OptionVotes
1030
958
OptionProbability
100
87
76
71
71
65
61
61
57
57
55
53
52
52
52
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
43
40
39
31
27
20
OptionVotes
905
447
Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?
Sep 6, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
31.65%chance
311044
OptionVotes
1067
961
OptionVotes
122
82
Will Greta Thunberg run for public office before the end of 2035?
Jan 15, 7:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.2%chance
19357
OptionVotes
1125
803
OptionVotes
111
90
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