OptionProbability
Adolf Hitler
George Santos
Benito Mussolini
Vladimir Putin
Joseph Stalin
Kanye West
Kim Jong-un
Derek Chauvin
Xi Jinping
Jeffrey Epstein
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Dan Schneider
David Duke
Tucker Carlson
Mao Zedong
Viktor Orbán
Genghis Khan
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Thanos
Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars
Dolores Umbridge
Nero (Roman emperor)
Bill Cipher
Curtis Yarvin
Nick Land
Shaun King
Caligula
King Leopold II of Belgium
Negan Smith
Alex Jones
Augusto Pinochet
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
A paperclip-maximizing AGI
Lauren Boebert
Pennywise, the clown from “It”
Vlad the Impaler
Saddam Hussein
Commodus
Cthulhu
Hirohito
Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan
Joffrey Baratheon
Sauron
Hong Xiuquan
SCP-682
Uday Hussein
Nicolas Maduro
Jabba the Hutt
Kyle Rittenhouse
Lee Harvey Oswald
Robert Edward Lee
Pol Pot
The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)
Anders Breivik
Voldemort
Chris Benoit
Rush Limbaugh
Gannondorf
Bobby Fischer
Charles Manson
The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II
Jair Bolsonaro
Drake
Hugo Chavez
Chris Chan
Phillipe Petain
A random convicted murderer
Andrew Tate
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
Cersei Lannister
Dylan Klebold
Trump's attempted assassin
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
Donald Trump
Kang and/or Kodos
Satan
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
Albert Speer
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
Steve Bannon
Josh Hawley
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
Ron Unz
Ivan the terrible
Otto Skorzeny
Karl Donitz
Christoper Rufo
John Hinckley Jr.
The Loc-Nar
The Grim Reaper
Charles "Chuck" Johnson
Pat Buchanan
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
Whatifalthist
Franz von Papen
A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person
Erich von Manstein
Nikita Khrushchev
Judas Iscariot
Lyndon LaRouche
Joseph McCarthy
The CEO of MALIBAL
Erich Ludendorff
Roko
Mark Foley
Andronikos II Palaiologos
Liu Shan
Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson
Godzilla
Hasan Piker / Hasanabi
Unabomber
Sima Zhong
LEROY JENKINS
CHELSEA VOSS
Laria Reynolds
Ornlu the Wolf
Jozef Tiso
Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)
A cockroach
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho
Alfred Packer
Brent Dill
Steve Sailer
Erwin Rommel
Gongsun Yuan
Hasso von Manteuffel
King John
EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD
qin shi huang
Shang Yang
Richard Lynn
James Longstreet
Niko Bellic
Hunter Biden's laptop
The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering
Commodus
Paul Von Hindenburg
Tito
Thomas Midgley Jr.
an asi agent from openai
Vriska Serket
Yuan Shu
Miklos Horthy
Franz Joseph 1
WILLY ON WHEELS
J. Philippe Rushton
Lu Bu
Yuan Shikai
Juan Peron
Connor Duffy
Faust
Charles XII of Sweden
Zhou Enlai
Samuel Alito
@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)
Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)
Giego Caleiro
Fredrick Robert Brennan
Mehmed V
Black Hat (XKCD)
Jeremy Nixon
Charles Murray
Paul Ehrlich
Michael de Santa
anatoly karlin
Jonathan Anomaly
Alexey Guzey
King George III of England
Yuan Shao
Jar Jar Binks
Peter Thiel
Liang Mong-song
Lucy Guo
Klaus Schwab
Karl Marx
Stephen Hsu
James Buchanan
A literal ham sandwich
A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America
Rochelle Shen
JD Vance
Emperor Ling of Han
Ada Nguyen
Sean Hannity
Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe
Salvador Allende
James Dewey Watson
Laura Gao
Claire Wang
Eren Yeager
@ButtocksCocktoasten
Jiang Zemin
Rorschach
Wario
goth600
Any child of Trump (randomly selected)
Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger
Elagabalus
Lex Luthor
A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President
Light Yagami
A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape
Neville Chamberlain
Bad Bunny
Rod Blagojevich
Brian Chau (@psychosort)
Chris Brown
Richard Watterson (from Gumball)
Hans Niemann
Silvio Berlusconi
Timothy Leary
John Edwards
George Floyd
Hunter Biden
Razib Khan
Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)
A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US
Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)
Kim Dotcom
Waluigi
Deng Xiaoping
Empress Dowager Cixi
Brian Tomasik
Your mom
THEAMAZINGATHEIST
Richard Hanania
A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma
Chuck Norris
You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)
Stan Smith
Ray Shaun Elussy
Lucille Bluth
Michael Vassar
An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Santa Claus
Kristi Noem's dog
Moses (Bible)
Yourself right now
Justin Trudeau
Elizabeth Holmes
Eminem
A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma
Futarchy (Manifold users)
Nicky Case
Robespierre
Yourself from 15 years ago
Greta Thunberg
Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony
@strutheo :)
Bill Gates
Gavin Newsom
Hillary Clinton
Walter White
Chat GPT
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Destiny
George Soros
Bill Cosby
Ellen DeGeneres
Harvey Weinstein
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
A can of beans
George W. Bush
Richard Nixon
Jeremy Corbyn
Joe Biden
Julius Caesar
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yasser Arafat
Shinzo Abe
Gus Fring
Frank Underwood
Mr Burns
Mr Krabs
Peter Griffin
Homer Simpson
Hank Hill
Cruella De Vil
Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)
Ibram X. Kendi
Rachel Dolezal
Nayib Bukele
Ayn Rand
Barack Obama
Young Sheldon
Tony Soprano
Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)
Dr Robotnik / Eggman
Vivek Ramaswamy
Taylor Swift
Joe Rogan
Javier Milei
Emmanuel Macron
Doctor Manhattan
Bill Clinton
Donkey Kong
Rudy Giuliani
An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)
Sam Bankman-Fried
Cedric the Entertainer
Glenn Quagmire
Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)
Gollum/Smeagol
Matthew Yglesias
Vaush
Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas
Donald Trump Jr
Napoleon Bonaparte
Jordan Peterson
Scar (lion king)
Margaret Thatcher
Andrew Johnson
Bill Ackman
Bernie Madoff
Jussie Smollet
Avon Barksdale
Yann Lecun
The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party
Elon Musk
Paul Atreides
Cenk Uygur
Georgia Meloni
Boris Johnson
Trump from the 80s-90s
Shirley Temple
Mark Rutte
Michael Jackson
James (manifold)
Austin (manifold)
George Washington
Zaphod Beeblebrox
Mr Garrison (South Park)
Lee Pace
Muhammad the prophet
Jose Luis Ricon
BasedBeffJezos
Mike Pence
Nate Silver
Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)
Confucius
hari seldon
Teddy Roosevelt
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Angela Merkel
Jacinda Ardern
shaq
elvis
random manifold user
abe lincoln
bruce springsteen
billy joel
Rishi Sunak
Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform
buddha
satoshi nakamoto
A citizen of above average intelligence with a college degree, but the Secret Service will stop at nothing to ensure they are crossfaded (drunk + high) at all times
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
97
96
94
94
92
92
92
91
91
90
88
88
87
86
85
84
84
82
81
76
74
74
73
72
71
69
69
68
67
66
66
65
63
61
60
59
58
58
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
46
45
45
45
44
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
42
42
42
41
41
41
41
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41
40
40
40
40
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39
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37
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35
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18
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
11
10
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Other
Jensen Huang
Larry Ellison
Jeff Bezos
Mark Zuckerberg
Sam Altman
Bernard Arnault
Larry Page
Satoshi Nakamoto
Vladimir Putin
Sergey Brin
Vitalik Buterin
Donald Trump
Michael Saylor
Bill Gates
Warren Buffett
me
Steve Ballmer
Gautam Adani
Mukesh Ambani
An AGI
Brian Armstrong
Changpeng “CZ” Zhao
Tim Draper
Jack Dorsey
Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron
@Mira
Michael Dell
Amancio Ortega
Carlos Slim Helu
Eric Schmidt
Masayoshi Son
Dave Tepper
Ken Griffin
Eduardo Saverin
Morris Chang
35
28
12
5
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
97
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
90
87
86
86
85
85
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
80
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
69
69
68
68
67
66
63
62
62
60
60
58
57
57
56
56
55
55
55
54
54
53
53
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
41
40
40
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
36
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
31
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Blue Ghost M1
IM-2
Griffin Mission 1
Beresheet 2
IM-3
Blue Moon MK1
Starship HLS
Hakuto-R 2
100
100
1
1
1
1
1
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
999
931
OptionProbability
YES
NO
444
53
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1644
608
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2143
821
OptionVotes
YES
NO
501
50
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1305
728
OptionVotes
YES
NO
120
83
OptionVotes
YES
NO
109
92

