OptionProbability
[AUS] A Driver DNF due to reliability problems (e.g., engine, power unit etc.)
[AUS] Red flag during qualifying
[AUS] At least 3 DNF
[AUS] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[TEST] Cadillac sets the slowest lap time of the whole testing session
[AUS] P1 & P2 by same team
[AUS] winner has no WDC title
[AUS] Audi reaches Q2 (Qualifying)
[AUS] Ferrari finishes on the podium
[AUS] An Audi driver finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUS] Verstappen finishes in top 10 (race)
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap Sprint
[CHN] Yellow flag first lap main race
[CHN] Ferrari on the podium of the sprint race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main qualifying
[CHN] VSC or Physical Safety car during the sprint race
[CHN] A Ferrari is P1 at the end of lap 1 (main race)
[CHN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CHN] Bearman scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] 5 or more DNF in the main race
[JAP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes or Ferrari gets a podium
[JAP] Antonelli wins the race
[MIA] Non-Mercedes pole position in sprint qualifying
[MIA] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[MIA] Leclerc podium in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes finishes outside the top 5 in the sprint race
[MIA] Gasly reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Antonelli wins the main race
[MIA] A McLaren on the podium in the main race
[MIA] Race start time is changed or cancelled due to weather conditions
[CAN] Three different teams on the podium (main race)
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint qualifying
[CAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the sprint race
[CAN] 5 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] An Alpine finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton finishes on podium in the main race
[CAN] Hamilton outfinishes Verstappen (main race)
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] Red flag during qualifying
[MON] Red flag during the race
[MON] A driver overtakes their teammate on track
[MON] Safety car (non-virtual) during the race
[MON] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[MON] Three different teams on the podium
[MON] Hadjar finishes in top 5 (race)
[MON] A Williams scores points (top 10)
[MON] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] An Audi reaches Q3
[BAR] Hamilton on the podium
[BAR] Verstappen finishes in top 5
[BAR] 3 or more DNF/DNS
[BAR] At least one driver that finishes in top 5 does 3 pit stops (or more)
[BAR] At least one podium finisher from team other than Ferrari or Mercedes
[AUT] Qualifying lap invalidated due to track limits
[AUT] Both Ferraris in top 5 in qualifying
[AUT] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 (race)
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] Sprint race is won by a driver ranked top-8 in the championship
[GBR] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[GBR] Both Ferraris in top 4 in the main qualifying
[GBR] Both Ferraris finish the main race in top 4
[GBR] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (main race)
[GBR] Both Racing Bulls finish the main race in top 10
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel gap within 10 seconds at the end of the main race
[SPA] Red flag in qualifying
[SPA] Antonelli wins the race
[SPA] An Audi reaches Q3
[SPA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[SPA] A Ferrari on the podium
[SPA] Hadjar finishes the race in top 10
[SPA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[SPA] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[HUN] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[HUN] An Aston Martin reaches Q2
[HUN] An Audi reaches Q3
[HUN] Russel qualifies outside the top 4
[HUN] Antonelli on the podium
[HUN] Hulkenberg finishes the race in top 10
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls finish the race in top 10
[ZAN] Leclerc on the podium of the sprint race
[ZAN] Non-Mercedes pole position (main qualifying)
[ZAN] Gasly finishes in top 10 in the main race
[ITA] Physical Safety Car during the race
[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[ITA] Italian driver wins the race
[ITA] Red Flag during the race
[ITA] Yuki Tsunoda scores a point
[ITA] Antonelli finishes the race in top 6
[MAD] Yellow flag first lap of the race
[MAD] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MAD] Kimi Antonelli wins the race
[MAD] Russel qualifies outside the top 5
[MAD] Verstappen on the podium
[MAD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[MAD] Colapinto scores points
[MAD] Linblad scores points
[MAD] An Audi scores points
[MAD] Three different teams on the podium
[AZE] Kimi Antonelli scores more points than George Russel
[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AZE] Red Flag during qualifying or race
[AZE] Lewis Hamilton finishes ahead of Charles Leclerc (race)
[AZE] One Aston Martin finishes the race (lapped ok)
[AZE] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AZE] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
Leave it open for the upcoming GP
[AUS] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUS] Yellow flag first lap
[AUS] Both Aston Martins qualify in the last row (21st and 22nd)
[TEST] Cadillac in the top 5 of the timesheets on any single day
[TEST] Ferrari sets the most laps during the whole testing session
[TEST] Mercedes sets the fastest lap time of the whole testing session
[TEST] First red flag caused by a driver error/spin etc. (not mechanical failure)
[AUS] Both Aston Martins retire after formation lap before race start
[AUS] The car finishing on P5 gets lapped
[AUS] Both Aston Martins don't finish the race
[AUS] Hadjar finishes on the podium
[CHN] Ferrari qualifies 1st or 2nd in the sprint qualifying (at least one driver)
[CHN] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[CHN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CHN] Gasly scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CHN] An Audi reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[CHN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CHN] An Audi scores points in the main race (top 10)
[CHN] A Red Bull Racing driver finishes in top 5 (main race)
[CHN] Winner wins by 11.00 seconds or more?
[JAP] Both Aston Martins DNF
[JAP] Yellow flag first lap
[JAP] Red flag in qualifying
[JAP] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[JAP] Team other than Mercedes gets pole position in qualifying
[JAP] Bearman reaches Q3
[JAP] 5 or more DNF (including DNS)
[JAP] Linblad scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Bortoleto scores points (top 10)
[JAP] Hadjar finishes ahead of Verstappen (face)
[JAP] A McLaren retires/DNS due to reliability issues
[JAP] Verstappen on the podium
[MIA] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Red flag during sprint qualifying
[MIA] Colapinto scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Hadjar scores points in the sprint race
[MIA] Physical Safety Car in the sprint race
[MIA] McLaren pole position in qualifying for the main race
[MIA] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[MIA] A Mercedes qualifies outside the top 5 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Hadjar doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Verstappen on the Podium in the main race
[MIA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[MIA] Both Ferrari finish in top 6 in the main race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches SQ3 (Sprint Qualifying)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during sprint qualifying
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the sprint race
[CAN] A Ferrari on the podium in the sprint race
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the sprint race
[CAN] Yellow flag in the first lap of the sprint race
[CAN] Sainz scores points in the sprint race (top 8)
[CAN] Impeding penalty during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] Red flag during qualifying for the main race
[CAN] An Audi reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] A Williams reaches Q3 (Main Race Qualifying)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap of the main race
[CAN] Mercedes 1-2 in the main race
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[CAN] Linblad scores points in the main race
[CAN] An Audi finishes in top 10 in the main race
[CAN] Oscar Piastri Finishes on Podium in the Main Race
[CAN] English broadcoast shows Colapinto's onboard camera view in the main race
[CAN] 7 or more DNS/DNF in the main race
[CAN] Piastri scores points in the main race
[MON] 5 or more on-track overtakes
[MON] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] Wet or intermediate tyres used during the race
[MON] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[BAR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[BAR] Yellow flag in the first lap of the race
[BAR] Mercedes driver wins
[BAR] Both McLaren qualify in top 4
[BAR] Antonelli pole position in qualifying
[BAR] Hulkenberg scores points (top 10)
[BAR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[BAR] Both Mercedes drivers on podium
[AUT] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qual or race
[AUT] Red flag during qualifying
[AUT] Physical safety car during the race
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[AUT] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[AUT] An Audi reaches Q3
[AUT] Both Ferraris on the podium (race)
[AUT] Antonelli finishes ahead of Russel (race)
[AUT] Gasly finishes on top 10 (race)
[AUT] At least 2 drivers that finish in the top 5 did 3 or more pit stops during the race
[AUT] An Audi finishes in top 10 (race)
[AUT] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[AUT] Russel and Antonelli collide during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
[GBR] All three tire compounds used on starting grid (main race)
[GBR] All 22 cars classified in the race
[GBR] Wet or Intermediate tyres used in any of quals or races (sprint and main)
[GBR] The same driver wins both races
[GBR] Red flag during the main race
[GBR] Same pole sitter in both the sprint qualifying and the main qualifying
[GBR] Pole position margin for the main qualifying is less than 50 milliseconds
[GBR] Hamilton wins the sprint race
[GBR] Both Ferraris on the podium of the sprint race
[GBR] Hadjar finishes in top 8 in the sprint race
[GBR] Physical or Virtual Safety Car in the sprint race
[GBR] Russel qualfies 5th or lower in the main qualifying
[GBR] An Audi reaches Q3 (main qualifying)
[GBR] 4 or more DNF/DNS (main race)
[GBR] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying
[SPA] Wet or intermediate tyres used during qualifying or race
[SPA] 5 or more DNF/DNS
[SPA] Mercedes 1-2 in the race
[SPA] Norris finishes the race in top 6
[SPA] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[HUN] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] Red Flag during qualifying
[HUN] 4 or more DNF/DNS
[HUN] Ferrari pole position
[HUN] Both Racing Bulls reach Q3
[HUN] Video drone hits the sign over the track around turns 8-10
[HUN] A Ferrari on the podium
[HUN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the race
[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race
[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda scores at least one point (sprint counts)
[ZAN] Yuki Tsunoda finishes either sprint or feature race ahead of Lawson
[ZAN] Same winner of the sprint and main race
[ZAN] Red flag during sprint qualifying or main qualifying
[ZAN] Ferrari pole position in the sprint qualifying
[ZAN] Antonelli scores more points than Russell over the entire weekend
[ZAN] Antonelli on the podium of the sprint race
[ZAN] Non-Mercedes driver wins the sprint race
[ZAN] Physical safety car during the main race
[ZAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the main race
[ZAN] Antonelli and Russel collide during the main race
[ZAN] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 in the main race
[ZAN] first and second driver finish with a gap of less than 5 seconds in the main race
[ITA] Red Flag during qualifying
[ITA] Pole position margin is less than 50 milliseconds
[ITA] Ferrari driver wins the race
[ITA] Aston Martin driver scores points
[ITA] Hadjar drives in the race
[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in qual or race
[ITA] Gasly finishes the race in top 5
[ITA] Bearman scores points (top 10)
[ITA] A Ferrari on the podium
[ITA] Leclerc finishes the race ahead of Hamilton
[MAD] Leclerc misses race
[MAD] Red flag during qualifying or race
[MAD] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MAD] Carlos Sainz scores points
[MAD] At least five cars retire (DNF)
[MAD] Hamilton scores more points than Russell
[MAD] Leclerc crashes during any session and cannot participate in the rest of that session (FP, qualy or race)
[MAD] At least one car will be disqualified due to plank wear. Doesn't matter if they later get reinstated
[MAD] An Audi reaches Q3
[MAD] A Ferrari on the podium
[MAD] Antonelli leads at the end of the first lap of the main race
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
64
63
60
59
50
40
32
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Minnesota - Penny Flanagan
North Carolina - Roy Cooper
Georgia - Jon Ossoff
Maine - Troy Jackson
New Hampshire - (Chris Pappas)
Michigan - Abdul El Sayed
Alaska - Mary Peltola
Ohio - Sherrod Brown
Texas - James Talarico
Iowa - Josh Turek
Nebraska - Dan Osborn
Kansas - Adam Hamilton
97
97
96
92
86
85
78
72
67
43
36
23
OptionProbability
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Vallteri Bottas?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Ocon
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Ocon OUT FINISH Perez?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Albon OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Bearman?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Bortoletto OUT FINISH Bottas?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Ocon?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Sainz?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/06 (Italy) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/06 (Italy) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Alonso OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/08 (Brazil) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/29 (Qatar) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/08 (Brazil) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/29 (Qatar) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/09/06 (Italy) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Stroll OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Bottas OUT FINISH Bearman?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Colapinto OUT FINISH Gasly?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hadjar OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hulkenberg OUT FINISH Lawson?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Linbald?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Stroll OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/07/05 (Great Britain) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Norris
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Alonso OUT FINISH Hamilton?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
67
66
63
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Rihanna
Serena Williams
Virat Kohli
Rafael Nadal
Neymar Jr.
Volodymyr Zekensky
Adam Driver
Jennifer Lawrence
Zack King
Luka Doncic
PewDiePie
Justin Bieber
Daniel Radcliffe
Manuel Neuer
Emma Stone
Any of the 7 BTS members
Selena Gomez
Any member of Blackpink
Taylor Swift
Michael Cera
Maria Sharapova
Post Malone
Markiplier
Marques Brownlee
Any member of Girl's Generation
Margot Robbie
Ben Johns (pickleball)
Adele
Simone Biles
Tom Holland
Palmer Luckey
Dwarkesh Patel
Halsey
Timothée Chalamet
Harry Styles
Kevin Durant
John Boyega
Drake
Alia Bhatt
Camille Lellouche
Sally Rooney
Shohei Ohtani
Patrick Collison
David Cross
Joji
Emotional Oranges (any member)
Tay Zonday
Barron Trump
The next US president excluding Trump & Vance
Andrew Huberman
Sam Altman
Jungkook
Logan Paul
MrBeast
Destiny
Max Verstappen
Magnus Carlsen
Lorde
MoistCritical
KSI
Emma Watson
Oreslan
Taylor Hill
Emelia Clarke
Pony Ma Huateng
Muqtada al-Sadr
G.E.M. (Gloria Tang)
Zhang Jike
Ritesh Agarwal
Ariana Grande
Jimin
Haley Joel Osment
Bruno Mars
Neeraj Chopra
Alia Al Mansoori
Naomi Osaka
Kylian Mbappe
Maisie Williams
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Zendaya
Dylan Wang
xQc
Billie Eilish
Hikaru Nakamura
Jenna Ortega
Lady Gaga
Robert Eggers
Emma Radacanu
Emma Chamberlain
Eric Rosen
Robert Pattinson
Yuna Kim
Leonardo DiCaprio
Eric Hansen
Ezra Miller
Jessie Eisenberg
Hans Niemann
Miley Cyrus
Lewis Hamilton
George Hotz
Wirtual
Vitalik Buterin
AOC
Greta Thunberg
Aella
Katy Perry
Lil Nas X
Scott Auckerman
Yuval Noah Harari
All members of Blackpink
Oprah Winfrey
Jennifer Aniston
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
93
91
81
78
78
75
74
73
69
68
67
65
65
65
65
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
60
59
59
55
54
54
54
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
48
48
46
46
46
45
44
44
43
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
41
41
41
39
39
39
39
36
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
30
30
28
25
23
22
18
18
17
7
5
5
OptionProbability
Other
Michael Marra
Stephen Flynn
Jenny Gilruth
Kate Forbes
Neil Gray
Mairi McAllan
Anas Sarwar
Angus Robertson
Douglas Ross
Alex Cole-Hamilton
Ian Blackford
31
26
24
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Under 65 yo
Under 60 yo
Straight
Has a STEM degree of any type
Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering
Is an American citizen
If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier
Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)
Under 55 yo
Speaks a foreign language
Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)
Has been a CEO
Is married
Under 50 yo
Has children
Self described person of color
Has ethnic Asian heritage
Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)
Software Engineering background
Was not an American citizen at birth
Went to a private high school
Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past
Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)
Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern
Citation count on google scholar is 1k+
Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)
Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO
Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)
Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement
Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history
Has attended Davos
Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer
Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)
Non-native English speaker
CEO will take office after Q2 2027
Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe
Is an only child
Born in the USA
Has ethnic European heritage
Diversity Points Score: 1
Has visited or lived in China
Has ever been divorced
Has PhD
Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university
Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)
Under 45 yo
Has written and published a book either academic or non
Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement
Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage
Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China
Has submitted and received 2+ patents
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday
Diversity Points Score: 0
Under 40 yo
Has Jewish heritage
Neither parent attended college
Was a college-level athlete
Has any public mention of playing pickleball
Has at least 3 children
Is publicly Christian
Diversity Points Score: 2
Diversity Points Score: 5 or more
Blue eyes
Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier
Diversity Points Score: 3
Diversity Points Score: 4
If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)
Tattoo
Has served in us govt
Has passed a bar exam
Female
Born in the northeast
Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday
Raised in a single parent family
Left-handed
Tattoo visible during inauguration speech
Grew up in poverty
Catholic
Physics Background
Green eyes
Is Hispanic
Both parents had PhDs
LGBT*+
Has military experience
Has worked or attended school in Israel
Is Muslim
Unnatural hair colour
Has ethnic African heritage
Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO
Has a physical disability
Has been to space
Has an ADOS background
Pronouns are not standard
Has a speech impediment
Trans
Is an AI
Has a Manifold account
97
90
89
85
84
84
83
82
69
68
67
65
65
62
62
61
58
57
56
55
53
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
43
43
40
40
38
37
37
37
36
35
35
33
32
32
31
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
25
24
23
22
22
22
22
19
19
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
13
13
11
10
9
8
7
3
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Democratic nominee
Republican nominee
Stephen Hamilton (American Constitution party)
Willow Collamer (unaffiliated)
Other
98
1
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1720
750
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1279
782
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1750
571
OptionProbability
Incheon, South Korea
Osaka, Japan
Seoul, South Korea
Elmont, New York
Vancouver, British Columbia
Inglewood, California
Arlington, Texas
Montreal, Quebec
Toronto, Ontario
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Mexico City, Mexico
Charlotte, North Carolina
Berlin, Germany
Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Hamilton, Ontario
66
66
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
34
OptionProbability
Book of Mormon
Sunset Blvd
Hamilton
Waiting for Godot
Moulin Rouge
Glengarry Glen Ross
The Great Gatsby
Dead Outlaw
Buena Vista Social Club
Oh, Mary!
Good Night, and Good Luck
Gypsy
Othello
100
100
80
54
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50


