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    What is worse than committing a financial crime?

    May 15, 5:46 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM
    360294388

    OptionProbability

    Arson

    Murder

    Genocide

    2008 bank bailouts

    two financial crimes

    Sexual assault

    Rape

    Election fraud

    financial crimes veiled as altruism

    ballot harvesting

    Financial crimes done specifically by someone in power

    Racism against Asian people

    Similar size financial crime committed by professional like lawyer or accountant who should know better but may have more at stake with risk of being struck off

    Abusing/taking advantage of the trust of a person or people who care about you

    Forcing someone to listen to Nickelback for 72 hours straight

    financial crimes committed while doing a really offensive accent

    offering drugs to a minor

    stealing from the rich and giving to one specific deranged and violent alcoholic

    Not doubling world GDP (more so for poor countries) by means of open borders

    Sacrificing a child to R'hllor

    Committing a moderately big financial crime (>$1 million)

    Committing a really big financial crime (>$10 billion)

    Hiring an illegal immigrant as your personal full-time sex slave

    Lobbying congress to ban your competitors

    buying a lot of drinks for a girl to get her very drunk so she'll hook up with you

    Protecting sex-offending priests/pastors by moving them to different parishes

    Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by stealing catalytic converters off people's cars

    Introducing leaded gasoline to the market (in 1924)

    Rigging a piano to explode when a certain key is hit and leaving a piece of sheet music on it that requires that note to be played

    Stealing a SpaceX Starship or Boeing Starliner

    Space Piracy: commandeering ISS, enslaving the crew, plundering it for equipment and using it to attack other spacecraft

    Taxing Asian immigrants to pay “slavery reparations’ to Ethiopian immigrants

    Passing the Jones act to ban senator jones’ competitors

    Setting Bigfoot on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of cryptozoologists.

    marketing sugary processed foods to people despite knowing it will kill millions of them

    Giving away free samples of meth at a school

    Running for reelection as POTUS and refusing to step aside after showing signs of significant cognitive decline, resulting in an 80% probability that a convicted felon will be elected in your place.

    Encouraging 10 people to commit a financial crime

    Committing war crime.

    Intensive pig farming

    Giving away free samples of meth at a big tech company

    Giving away free samples of meth at tech startups

    Consolidating dictatorial power (e.g. suspending elections, controlling courts, etc.) while maintaining a popular mandate (i.e. significant majority of the country supports you and your actions in accurate, unpressured polls)

    Firebombing a major city

    Genocide committed by moving foodstuffs out of an area suffering severe famine.

    Restricting the rights and privileges of the majority population to consolidate the political and economic power

    Farming octopuses for food

    Whatever is going on at Boeing

    Setting a cryptozoologist on fire and throwing him out of a plane above a gathering of bigfoots.

    Destroying a major cloud datacenter facility, with irrecoverable destruction of live user data but no direct deaths

    Giving a (hypothetical) IQ-boosting treatment only to the most corrupt, vicious, and malicious people you can find

    Doing physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

    Threatening physical violence towards a random person's child as a collections agent

    Forcing kindergartners to huff jenkem for an entire school day.

    Threatening physical violence towards a random person's sibling as a collections agent

    Conducting evidence-free civil asset forfeiture

    Fighting a sea house with a financial crime and going to McDonald’s and giving a really bad yelp review and suing for a financial crime when you are beating up the sea horse

    Octopi farming us for food

    Embedding a predatory metaphysical outlook into AI to try to align it with right wing capitalist interests, leading to aeons of s risks being actualized throughout the light cone.

    Unintentionally causing a bug that wastes 1 million hours of human time

    Transporting 53 polar bears, 14 white tigers, and 2.3 million fire ants to the Antarctic and setting them loose in a penguin colony for a pay per view special dubbed "Polar Pandemonium: Ant-artic Special"

    Spending the gains from your financial crime on breeding malaria mosquitoes, giving free samples of meth to poor teenagers, and electing bad politicians

    Using a time machine to go back in time and brutally murder someone minutes before they would've died anyways

    Aligning superhuman AI with capitalism; see https://manifold.markets/KarlK/how-friendly-is-capitalism-does-cap

    Wearing a magic shirt that has a 5% chance of making each individual who sees it commit a financial crime as you traverse a major metropolitan city (New York, London, Tokyo, etc)

    Falsifying evidence that an afterlife exists and profiting from the publication of this information

    Enslaving Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter

    Octopuses farming people who correct those who say ‘octopi’ for food

    Enslaving octopuses to farm dolphins for food

    Enslaving journalists to farm octopuses for food

    Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime while knowing they’re innocent

    Crashing the Titantic, leading to it sinking

    Free ice cream, at taxpayer expense, but only for gingers

    Committing a Financial Crime with Shoes On The Bed

    Embezzling money from a charity opposed to farming octopuses

    Creating Hell, making it possible that humans suffer infinitely for the actions of their finite life

    Ressurecting the Rocky Mountain Locust (Melanoplus spretus)

    creating misaligned AI that tiles the universe with octopus farms

    Forcing an octopus to commit sepekku

    forcing an octopus to commit a financial crime

    Murdering 5,000 people by feeding them to all animals of the sea, including aquaman, mermaids, octopuses, and sea horses.

    Octopus sex trafficking.

    Filming a documentary where you get an octopus to trust you, luring it out into the open, and then don't help when it gets attacked by sharks.

    Filming a documentary where you invite your girlfriend to an Alaskan camp surrounded by bears and then messing with those bears.

    Introducing polar bears to Antarctica and then renaming them “bipolar bears.”

    Appointing one random drug dealer with no legal experience to the Supreme Court of the United States

    Appointing Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court

    Hanging on to a Supreme Court seat so Trump can appoint your replacement rather than retiring and keeping a liberal seat

    Selling pies made out of orphan meat.

    Condemning two hundred men to a slow death at sea because their coworker shot your favorite bird.

    Enslaving a group of people for hundreds of years, terrorizing them for another hundred, then telling them you are tired of hearing them complain about it.

    Selling orphans fed only pie meat

    Feeding a child only nachos until they are 18 to create an adult who is 100% nachos

    Slaughtering bears without a permit because the US Constitution guarantees the right to bear arms

    Replacing all the samples at a sperm bank with your own.

    Delivering angry skunks to the offices of rival investors to incapacitate them just before quarterly earnings reports.

    Committing two financial crimes and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

    Quackery - Traveling town to town selling snake oil remedies in a horse drawn carriage while wearing a top hat

    Dueling - settling a dispute in the 21st century America with pistols at dawn

    Go to an orphanage and have starving orphans battle over a hamburger with guns and swords while committing a financial crime

    Twelve counts of murder in the first degree, fourteen counts of armed theft of Federation property, twenty two counts of piracy in high space, eighteen counts of fraud, thirty seven counts of rape... and one moving violation.

    Causing people to go without essential items like water and fuel during emergencies by means of anti-price-gouging laws

    Judging policies by their stated intent, not by their effect

    Purposefully inciting a sea-bear attack

    Enslaving a particularly dim-witted alien race so poor humans don't have to spend their lives asteroid mining.

    Stealing a SpaceX Starship

    Getting nuns pregnant by dressing them as altar boys.

    Carjacking an old lady

    Committing a financial crime and spending the proceeds on a plane ticket to Texas so you can go carjack Elon Musk, and then doing so

    Forcing jockeys to run around a track for the entertainment of a race of hyperintelligent horses

    Carjacking a hyperintelligent horse

    Stealing the Declaration of Independence

    Operating a child beauty pageant

    Andrew Tate

    Intentionally causing a bug that wastes 80,000 hours of human time

    Putting motherfucking snakes on a motherfucking plane to kill one specific passenger

    Having trains so bad and expensive that venture capital reinvents them

    A regulatory environment that results in really bad trains

    Trying to run a modern 21st century society on a hierarchical 18th century constitution

    Artie Chokes Two for $1: Hiring a man named Artie to choke two people for a dollar to generate a headline falsely promising low-cost produce.

    The first thing you do after sex is to resume the autopsy whilst telling yourself that one error in judgment doesn’t make you a bad vet.

    Invent a system of taxation where the government won’t tell citizens what they owe, but instead will make them do a super complicated math problem and then send them to jail if they do it incorrectly.

    Putting a pair of immortal adult children in an everlasting garden, then punishing them for the one thing you forbade, yet knew they must eventually do, given the nature of eternity.

    Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to bootstrap itself to AGI by testing on your clones according to a mixture of Popperian and Bayesian formulas

    Inventing a system of taxation that encourages bad land use and a housing crisis by taxing at 0% the unimproved value of land

    Committing a violent crime that does not result in any injuries

    Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries

    Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries

    Committing a violent crime that results in one person's death

    Committing a violent crime that results in ten people's deaths

    Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a serious injury to another person

    Handing out counterfeit money to homeless beggars, in the hope that they'll get arrested for spending it.

    Snatching household pets to fatten coyotes to feed to your pet tiger.

    Stealing oxygen in an international moon base during an acute shortage, while deflecting suspicion toward the Belgian astronaut who nobody likes.

    Committing a violent crime that results in minor injuries solely to yourself

    Committing a violent crime that results in serious injuries solely to yourself

    Committing a violent crime that results in your own death and no other injuries

    Not committing a financial crime because you have commitment issues, but then sneaking around on the side and doing other financial crimes.

    Sending a busload of orphans to a convent of cannibalistic nuns, who deal crack to middle school kids.

    A law enforcement agency publicly declaring a specific individual to be “a person of interest,” thereby ruining their life even though the individual turns out to be innocent.

    Being responsible for more than 50 percent of the cases of necrophilia in the funeral industry during any fiscal year.

    As President, using a sharpie on an official weather forecast to extend the predicted area of danger, thereby needlessly frightening people who are not in danger.

    Committing a financial crime while being the mayor of NYC

    Attacking the lower classes: first with bombs, and rockets destroying their homes, and then when they run helpless into the streets, mowing them down with machine guns. And then of course releasing the vultures.

    Cannibalism in the current British Navy.

    Turning your girlfriend into a worm to win an argument

    One hundred moving violations

    Denying health insurance claims from impoverished family for flimsy reasons

    Attempting or successfully couping a Democratically elected leader for personal gain

    Touching minors/ being a pedophile

    Deliberately targeting civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts

    Conducting widespread or systematic rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war

    Invading the UK, making it a US territory, and naming it East Long Island.

    Stealing Nicholas Cage

    Gender "reparative therapy" of minors

    Signing Deshaun Watson (who previously had to settle millions of dollars in sexual assault cases) to a 5 year, 230 Million fully guaranteed contract

    Building a gambling app using money originating from a financial crime

    Going back in time and smothering baby Hitler, but also, via butterfly effect, undoing everyone born later (assume single timeline, no multiverse)

    Moving hundreds of thousands of children to a foreign country and forcibly "reeducating" them

    The genocide in Gaza

    Russia's genocide in Ukraine

    Murdering someone that habitually commits financial crimes

    Slavery

    Grooming kids

    Being the leader of a crime syndicate

    9/11

    Stranding two astronauts in space

    Disturbing the space-time continuum

    Sending dick pics to a student enrolled in your MOOC

    Quackery: traveling town to town selling snake-oil remedies while carrying a duck

    Voting for the NSDAP in the November 1932 German federal election

    Forced mass uploading of biological consciousness to sidestep x risk

    Attempting and failing to commit two financial crimes

    Voting against a public inquiry on grooming gangs in the UK

    A 20-year old having consensual sex with a 15-year-old

    Knowing of two imminent financial crimes, being able to stop them with negligible effort and no risk to yourself, and not doing so

    Making the same amount of money as the financial crime, but doing it by a series of petty shoplifts

    De-extinction for your delectation: Bringing an extinct species back just to make it extinct again by serving it to gourmet diners as the highlight of an expensive meal.

    Sexual harassment

    Committing a financial crime that's 10 times as big, but donating the entire proceeds to a legitimate and worthy charity (assume the donations are not clawed back)

    Flipping a coin and then either committing the same financial crime two times, or not at all

    Killing the United Healthcare CEO

    Purchasing 50,000 pounds of beef

    Forcing a home owner to quarter soldiers, even in a time of war

    Claiming to "Blind Shove" 200 big blinds pre-flop when secretly you looked and you had pocket Aces

    Raising and selling 50,000 lbs of beef

    Sheltering enemies of the state

    Kicking a FG from the opponents 1 yard line on 4th down in a 0-0 game in the first quarter

    Having a really good proof but not writing it anywhere because the margin is too small

    Weaponizing autism

    Having a podcast

    Yelling racial slurs in public

    Jaywalking

    Pelting a moose with stale garlic knots out of season.

    Cheating on spouse

    Driving while intoxicated (alcohol and/or drugs)

    Playing music (or other audio) on your phone speaker on public transport

    Income taxes

    Copyright infringement

    Romeo and Juliet relationships

    Replying all to an email when you should've just replied

    Welfare fraud

    Manufacturing and distribution of illegal drugs

    Grave robbery

    Saying the N-word every day as a white person

    Discrimination based on race

    Discrimination based on sexual orientation

    Stealing from the rich and giving to the poor

    Having sex in public while high on fentanyl

    Racism against black people

    Racism against white people

    Sleep Token (Band)

    not seeding your torrents

    Drinking and driving at a NASCAR event

    Building a time machine and then using it to point and laugh at history's greatest tragedies

    Blasting a grossly inappropriate song during a candle light vigil for victims of a mass tragedy

    Committing a financial crime, investing the proceeds for profit, which later leads to the insolvency administrator paying back the injured parties (including interest).

    Working for one of the leading AI labs to advance the capabilities of a frontier model, with the goal of speeding up the progress towards human-level AGI.

    Stealing from the poor and giving to the rich

    Hiring only women because the NYT said you could pay them less for the same work

    hiring three illegal immigrants to work on your sugarcane plantation

    opening a factory in India that pays workers $4/day

    twincest

    drawing japanese tentacle porn featuring minors

    Hiring the one from the more successful demographic out of two identical resumes, because of regression to the mean / biased college admissions

    working as a prostitute

    hiring a prostitute

    hiring a prostitute, long term

    Inventing Monero

    Running a bank that invests demand deposits in junk bonds and tech stocks

    Opening clinics for free abortions and IUDs, only in the ghetto

    Giving away free samples of meth at a Dolly Parton concert

    The most offensive Halloween costume ever

    frisking two drug dealers and one innocent guy who was just loitering on a busy street corner saying "Hey do you need anything" to every stranger who walked past

    Doing blackface

    Keeping a dozen chimpanzees for entertainment purposes

    Prosecuting a political opponent based on true charges that would normally not be pursued

    the Asiana flight 214 prank

    Giving free samples of meth to Joe Biden before the next debate

    Cloning yourself

    Threatening physical violence to a random person as a collections agent

    making mifeprestone available OTC

    making adderall available OTC

    Killing yourself

    Cloning someone else

    Accidentally shooting and killing someone on a movie set

    Asking GPT5 to maximize paperclips

    Giving free baby formula to new mothers until their natural milk supply dries up

    Kicking a donkey owned by a ninja in the butt.

    Creating shit-options in an extremely serious and scientific market

    Creating a prediction market website where markets are mostly about the platform itself

    Staging the world's first ass ass assasin assasination by hiring a New Jersey hit man to whack a ninja hired to shoot an arrow at the backside of a donkey.

    Betting yes on Biden being be the nominee at 7x leverage with play money, then defaulting

    Calling octopuses "octopi"

    Going excessively meta on an object-level topic

    Illegally registering octopuses to vote

    Registering illegals to vote for octopuses

    Creating a targeted advertising campaign for free abortions and IUDs to people who are statistically likely to engage in financial crime

    The school system failing to teach people that the real correct plural is octopodes

    "James Bond-burgering" someone's sister

    Wrongfully accusing someone of the same financial crime

    Wrongfully accusing someone of that crime because you think they did it

    Feeding an elderly man nothing but McDonald’s morning noon and night for the rest of his life.

    Conducting gain-of-function research

    Creating an unsolvable meme featuring James Bond and a hamburger so that people argue about it online for a decade

    Publishing a step by step guide for how to commit a financial crime for free on the internet, but never promoting it or encouraging readers to follow through

    Hosting and operating a website dedicated to the illegal sharing of copyrighted content

    Adding an option to a market right before it closes

    Writing a "goto" statement when programming

    Advertising instant-runoff voting as "ranked choice" to prevent promotion of better ranked choice methods

    Publishing a book, titled, "Cure Menopause with Ultraprocessed Foods"

    Using crack cocaine to train the world's first chimp TSA agent.

    Selling dope disguised as a nun.

    Creating Heaven, allowing humans to prosper infinitely for the actions of their finite life

    Inventing a new recipe that uses shrimp that causes 10 million new pounds of shrimp to be consumed annually

    Using a conservative politician's LGBT+ identity as blackmail to make them support liberal policies

    Voting for Benito Mussolini… in 2024

    Arguing that grizzlies should be US citizens because they already have the right to bear arms.

    Interrupting cows.

    No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns into a worm

    Putting infinite monkeys in front of infinite Bloomberg Terminals hoping that one of them randomly commits a financial crime

    No longer loving your girlfriend after she turns you into a worm

    One moving violation.

    Purchasing one whole chicken

    Committing a financial crime and donating the proceeds to the Make-a-Wish Foundation

    Cattle rustling

    Horse thievery

    Tarring and feathering someone who commits a financial crime

    Sumptuary law violations

    Homeopathy

    Price Gouging

    Using napster.com to download Metallica's "I Disappear" demo track for free

    Failing to commit a financial crime

    Stealing a car

    Stealing from Elon Musk

    Committing a financial crime against X (company)

    Stampeding cattle through the Vatican.

    Carjacking Elon Musk

    An old lady carjacking Elon Musk

    Hacking into YouPorn to steal their IP to set up a clone dedicated to hard core user generated agriculture content: YouCorn

    Gaslighting aliens into believing the human race is more technologically advanced than it is by beaming fake content about humanity to them

    Carjacking a dumb octopus

    A financial crime committed by an old lady

    Forcing an octopus to carjack Elon Musk

    stealing Elon Musk's car from solar orbit

    Raping an AI avatar in VR

    Introducing artificial intelligence to DMT space.

    Planned Parrothood: offering birth control to talking birds

    Plant Parenthood: when the seed goes in and the baby turns out to be a sunflower

    Stealing the Declaration of Independence in order to find a vast revolutionary-war-era treasure trove

    Using venture capital to reinvent trains, but worse

    Bad bagels

    Enslaving Slavey Steve, a man who has given enthusiastic consent to being enslaved for literally any purpose and then using his labor to clean up the environment

    Still getting notifications for this market

    Deciding to break up with your girlfriend, but thinking it will go easier if she thinks it’s her idea, so you suggest some degrading sexual activities but she surprises you by agreeing. Afterwards, you break up with her.

    Laughing because a nun with a javelin through her head gets stuck trying to use a revolving door.

    scaring the shit out of a magpie

    Giving AI your DNA and as much data as possible with instructions to build a map of all quale and use it to create a computationally conscious race of dragons in a virtual universe

    Committing sewerslide

    Forcing a major sports league to change all its team names and mascots to either STDs or famous serial killers.

    Workplace negligence (failure to follow documented proper procedure) that results in a minor injury to another person

    Stealing the Declaration of Independence but only to use the kick ass treasure map on the back and then returning

    Arby’s

    Passing a law to make the United States an Oregon donor; in the event of the US’s demise, another country gets Oregon.

    Creating a food made from grinding up every part of a pig (except the squeal), and then making a contest to see who can eat the most of it.

    Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation and donating the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

    Committing a financial crime against the Make-a-Wish Foundation, keeping 50% of the proceeds, and donating 50% of the proceeds to the Against Malaria Foundation

    Forcing Elon Musk to commit a financial crime against an octopus and using the proceeds to pay a jacked jack-of-all-trades named Jack to jack off while carjacking a jackass that was driving factory-farmed ASIs to the slaughterhouse

    Committing a Financial Crime Only When God Exists

    Turning a worm into your girlfriend to win an argument

    Causing 8 billion people to get dust specks in their eyes, irritating them just a little, for a fraction of a second, barely enough to make them notice before they blink and wipe it away

    Causing 1 person to experience the pain of their entire body being stung by bullet ants, but lasting only a tenth of a second, and they have their memory of it wiped immediately afterwards

    Founding Christianity

    You, the reader

    One hundred counts of littering

    Purchasing 500 pounds of beef

    Consensually cannibalizing someone who was losing that body part regardless

    BTE Ban evading

    Purchasing 5,000 pounds of beef

    Producing a remake of the television series 'Manimal' starring Nicholas Cage.

    Transing children

    Redirecting fire department resources from fighting fires to fighting inequity

    Taking a salary equal to the amount of the financial crime, while working in a government job of negative societal value?

    Sexual intercourse with 1057 men in a 12 hour period

    Messing up an 'I give you my heart' gesture and doing a Nazi salute instead

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    OptionProbability

    Officials Say

    Trump Wins

    Court Orders

    Found dead

    Texas Fire

    Civil war

    Olympic Gold

    Climate Change

    Bird Flu

    Supreme Court

    Trade War

    Former President

    Southern Border

    Talks Between

    Officials Declare

    On record

    First Ever

    Talks Begin

    Trump Ordered

    New report

    Earthquake Kills

    Ceasefire Agreement

    Lawmakers Move

    Take Home

    Drone Strike

    Inflation down

    In Setback

    Assassination Attempt

    declares war

    Artificial Intelligence

    Officials Deny

    Tension Builds

    Republicans Lose

    National Emergency

    nuclear weapon

    Death Toll

    Most Ever

    Trump guilty

    at Odds

    Third attempt

    Second Term

    Generation Alpha

    European Union

    Landmark Decision

    Dalai Lama

    Strikes continue

    Feared dead following

    Officials Insist

    court allows

    Border Crisis

    A.I. Legislation

    Impeachment Inquiry

    Demands Justice

    Takes Gold

    With Biden

    Tipping Point

    Olympic Debut

    Summer Olympic Games

    Hoping To

    Sudden Death

    In Historic Decision

    Musk donates

    Cancer cure

    Fake news

    Keir Starmer

    Vows to

    AI Czar

    threat to democracy

    General Condemns

    Officials Worry

    Chemical weapon

    Highest Ever

    Swift Becomes

    Joins NATO

    Alleged genocide

    Nuclear war

    Biden Announces

    Homelessness ban

    market crashes

    nuclear bomb

    Kremlin Says

    Haley announces

    Tempers Flare

    trump’s assassin

    Double Knockout

    Supreme Court, 9-0

    Leaves NATO

    Carter Dead

    Ghost Trees

    Trump Convicted

    69 billion

    Harris Wins

    Revolutionary Song

    Artificial General Intelligence

    "French Fries"

    Occult hand

    Effective Altruism

    Biden Wins

    TikToker Found

    Trump Dead

    Apocalypse imminent

    Florida Man

    Holy hell

    Putin Dead

    Biden Dead

    owo what's this

    I Like Ike

    Astral Codex Ten

    Manifold Markets

    Williamson Wins

    Africa Toto

    General Condoms

    Dewey Defeats Truman

    En passant forced

    Titanic 2 Sinks

    skibidi toilet

    never gonna give you up

    Rationalussy Cult

    "Vriska did nothing wrong"

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    96

    84

    83

    83

    82

    82

    80

    79

    79

    78

    77

    77

    77

    76

    76

    76

    75

    74

    73

    72

    72

    71

    71

    70

    70

    69

    69

    69

    69

    66

    65

    65

    64

    64

    64

    62

    62

    62

    61

    57

    57

    55

    55

    52

    50

    50

    50

    49

    48

    46

    46

    45

    45

    45

    45

    45

    44

    44

    44

    42

    40

    37

    37

    36

    35

    32

    32

    31

    29

    28

    27

    27

    27

    23

    22

    19

    18

    18

    17

    16

    16

    14

    14

    12

    12

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Smeth Stock [Hopefully Not Permanent]

    Nov 11, 11:32 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
    80.5%chance
    6527185

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2036

    363

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Will not be found in 2025 [liquidity answer, hopefully]

    meow

    93

    7

    1

    Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

    Mar 25, 10:17 AMMay 7, 11:59 AM
    553771

    OptionProbability

    Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)

    Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)

    Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)

    Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)

    Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)

    Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)

    Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)

    Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)

    Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)

    Chris Hemsworth (Thor)

    Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)

    Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)

    Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)

    Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)

    Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)

    Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)

    Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)

    Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)

    Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)

    Benedict Wong (Wong)

    Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)

    Vin Diesel (Groot)

    Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)

    Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)

    Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)

    Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)

    Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)

    Karen Gillan (Nebula)

    Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)

    David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)

    Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)

    Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)

    Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)

    Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)

    Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)

    Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)

    Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)

    Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)

    Pom Klementieff (Mantis)

    Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)

    Winston Duke (M'Baku)

    Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)

    Paul Bettany (Vision)

    Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)

    Danai Gurira (Okoye)

    Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)

    Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)

    Tom Hiddleston (Loki)

    Mahershala Ali (Blade)

    Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)

    Sean Gunn (Kraglin)

    Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)

    Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)

    Wil Deusner (Skaar)

    Gemma Chan (Sersi)

    Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)

    Lia McHugh (Sprite)

    Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)

    Barry Keoghan (Druig)

    Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)

    Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)

    Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)

    Ralph Ineson (Galactus)

    Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)

    Seth Green (Howard the Duck)

    Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)

    Dave Bautista (Drax)

    Angelina Jolie (Thena)

    Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)

    Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)

    Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)

    Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)

    May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)

    Emilia Clarke (G'iah)

    Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)

    Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)

    Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)

    Brett Goldstein (Hercules)

    Don Lee (Gilgamesh)

    94

    92

    91

    90

    89

    88

    88

    88

    87

    86

    85

    85

    84

    83

    83

    83

    82

    82

    81

    81

    79

    79

    78

    78

    78

    78

    76

    76

    76

    75

    75

    74

    73

    72

    72

    70

    69

    69

    69

    69

    66

    66

    66

    65

    65

    62

    59

    59

    59

    54

    54

    53

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    48

    46

    41

    41

    41

    41

    40

    38

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    32

    27

    19

    17

    16

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1635

    936

    OptionProbability

    Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.

    Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)

    Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.

    Other

    A bluff.

    Something to prevent her from committing suicide

    Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.

    Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.

    Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves

    Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.

    Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.

    Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)

    Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.

    The answer will never be officially revealed.

    Something to help her learn rationality

    77

    19

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    A bio revolution of resurgence! The bean is back in everyone’s hands

    A prized middle class item

    Chemical vanillin for all (total extinction)

    For the rich only

    A bleak hope (Only seeds are left)

    52

    35

    11

    2

    1

    Fancysloth Stock [hopefully not permanent]

    Nov 16, 3:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    77.08%chance
    7412

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    211

    87

    OptionProbability

    Other

    "There are still direwolves beyond the Wall. We hear them on our rangings." (Jon I)

    "I just want to stand on top of the Wall and piss off the edge of the world." (Tyrion I)

    "When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives." (Arya II)

    "I think he is a giant come among us, here at the end of the world." (Tyrion III)

    "And what will you be wanting, this time of night?” “A last look.” (Tyrion III)

    "All dwarfs may be bastards, yet not all bastards need be dwarfs." (Jon I)

    "Love is the bane of honor, the death of duty." (Jon VIII)

    "All dwarves are bastards in their father's eyes." (Jon I)

    "I hope the boy does wake. I would be most interested to hear what he might have to say." (Tyrion I)

    37

    16

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    OptionProbability

    Intentful bodily care (sleep, water, and light exercise)

    Careful tracking of burnout and allocating time and resources to explicit relaxation

    Other

    Stress less about general image and status

    get enough sleep

    write note files/.txt files/gdocs/other single document to describe what you hope to get out of each experiment, before you run it

    seek worst case bounds, but distrust them

    Mark's post on how to do theoretical research: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zbFGRRWPwxBwjwknY/how-to-do-theoretical-research-a-personal-perspective-1

    Do more experiments. Develop research intimacy and intuition

    40

    24

    22

    9

    5

    1

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    1+1=2

    We are currently experiencing an increase in storm intensity and extreme heat globally that are attributable to increased greenhouse gases (methane, CO2) in the atmosphere

    Donald Trump is bad.

    All men are created equal

    “Self resolving” markets, eg that are resolved based on number of traders on each side or through a poll, should not count towards league standing

    Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed

    Debits are assets and expenses while credits are income and liabilities

    Markets are more accurate & reliable than polls

    Donald trump frequently asserts multiple lies in rapid succession - a gish gallop or throw spaghetti at wall hoping some sticks technique

    A monad is a monoid in the category of endofunctors

    Donald Trump is the worst president we’ve ever had

    Degrading or derogatory speech directed toward individuals or groups have no place in public discourse

    Government spending growing faster than GDP causes inflation

    E=mc^2

    All men are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights

    America is a nation that can be described in a single word: asmsajskfajksfkjwq

    97

    92

    91

    60

    60

    59

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    43

    31

    31

    28

    22

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