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Hugo Chávez News

    Prediction markets for Hugo Chávez

    OptionProbability

    Bo Brahson as Princess Zelda

    Benjamin Evan Ainsworth as Link

    Dichen Lachman as Impa

    Masi Oka as Tingle

    [This market will have the actor for Ganondorf submitted before it is announced/leaked]

    Kristen Schaal as Navi

    Zelda Williams as Great Fairy

    Finn Wolfhard as Skull Kid

    Sacha Baron Cohen as Tingle

    Jack Black as Morshu

    [This market will have the actor for Link submitted before it is announced/leaked]

    Chris Pratt as Groose

    Emily Kuroda as Impa

    [This market will have the actor for Zelda submitted before it is announced/leaked]

    Tilda Swinton as Impa

    Idris Elba as Ganondorf

    Dave Bautista as Ganondorf

    Henry Cavill as Ganondorf

    Tilda Swinton as Ganandorf

    Timothée Chalamet as Link

    Emma Watson as Zelda

    Justice Smith as Link

    Jacob Tremblay as Link

    Tom Holland as Link

    Hunter Schafer as Zelda

    Thomasin McKenzie as Zelda

    Thomas Brodie-Sangster as Link

    Hugo Weaving as Ganondorf

    Mackenyu as Link

    Sophia Lillis as Zelda

    F1nn5ter as Link

    Saoirse Ronan as Zelda

    99

    99

    97

    22

    17

    16

    13

    12

    9

    9

    8

    7

    5

    5

    5

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1263

    393

    Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?

    Mar 12, 7:22 AMFeb 2, 1:29 PM
    22.4%chance
    361925

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    188

    54

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1011

    970

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    586

    17

    When will the next MLB CBA be signed

    May 29, 3:49 PMJan 31, 10:59 AM
    4690

    OptionProbability

    Before Aug 2027

    Before Jul 2027

    Before Jun 2027

    Before May 2027

    Before Apr 2027

    Before Mar 2027

    Before Feb 2027

    Before Jan 2027

    Before Dec 2026

    Before Nov 2026

    93

    88

    85

    76

    50

    46

    34

    7

    3

    1

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1091

    942

    Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?

    Jan 18, 12:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    14.43%chance
    17553

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1176

    950

    Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?

    Oct 20, 11:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
    9.08%chance
    12528

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    408

    90

    Will XTC/MDMA be legalized anywhere in the world before 2035

    Jun 16, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:01 PM
    82%chance
    4231

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    182

    46

    OptionProbability

    I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

    I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

    Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

    Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

    Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

    Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

    Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

    Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

    Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

    Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

    Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

    Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

    Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

    Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

    Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

    Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

    Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

    Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

    Will we have 20+ this year?

    Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

    Will we meet in the library at least once?

    Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

    Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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