Hugo Chávez News
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Prediction markets for Hugo Chávez
Who will be cast in the live-action Legend of Zelda movie, as what role?
Nov 8, 6:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5322067
OptionProbability
99
99
97
22
17
16
13
12
9
9
8
7
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will Clarence Thomas's replacement be appointed by a Democratic president?
Jan 19, 7:23 PMJan 19, 7:18 PM
44.56%chance
135106
OptionVotes
1263
393
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win any of these awards or prizes before 2040?
Mar 12, 7:22 AMFeb 2, 1:29 PM
22.4%chance
361925
OptionVotes
188
54
Will software Web developers be a lower percentage of the workforce in the US in 2030 compared to 2022 ?
Dec 27, 12:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
62.78%chance
20945
OptionVotes
1011
970
Will Nicolás Maduro be convicted in a U.S. federal court before January 1, 2027?
Jan 15, 12:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.83%chance
16745
OptionVotes
586
17
OptionProbability
93
88
85
76
50
46
34
7
3
1
Will a second Asian language novel win a Hugo award for Best Novel by EOY 2030?
Feb 11, 2:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
63.13%chance
15592
OptionVotes
1091
942
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
Jan 18, 12:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
14.43%chance
17553
OptionVotes
1176
950
Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?
Oct 20, 11:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
9.08%chance
12528
OptionVotes
408
90
Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?
Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
55%chance
11274
OptionVotes
242
126
Will XTC/MDMA be legalized anywhere in the world before 2035
Jun 16, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:01 PM
82%chance
4231
OptionVotes
182
46
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
50
50
50
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0


