Ilya News

Russia’s Kseniya Alexandrova Dies at 30 After Elk Collision

9 months ago

Will SSI (Ilya's company) offer a product before someone creates ASI?

Jun 19, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.78%chance

625090

OptionVotes

YES

1219

820

Ilya Sutskever or Sam Altman personally joins manifold and is verified by mid 2025

Dec 1, 3:14 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

142137

OptionVotes

YES

2157

Will "Ilya Sutskever Deposition Transcript" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Mar 12, 5:52 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.09%chance

91250

OptionVotes

YES

1520

934

Will Ilya Sutskever be replaced by a body double?

Mar 16, 1:05 AMMar 23, 6:59 AM

3.34%chance

151099

OptionVotes

YES

1933

887

What caused Ilya to switch sides?

Nov 20, 2:43 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

21982

OptionProbability

Threats of staff leaving

No, it was not wheat that caused Ilya to switch sides.

Convinced by personal ties to Anna Brockman

Safety concerns over Microsoft dominance in AI

seeing loyalty to altman

Threats to cancel Ilya if he didn’t reverse his position.

Greg's wife crying and asking him to change his mind

Realized board had too little bargaining power / was losing the culture war

Financial incentives

Planned volte-face in a coup to oust the external board members

Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?

Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

15.25%chance

15844

OptionVotes

YES

236

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

1329

744

Will Ilya Gulko get a girlfriend by EOY 2027?

Aug 4, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.02%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

130

Ilya sutskever become a father by 2032?

Jun 25, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

353

OptionVotes

YES

110

Ilya Sutskever and Andrej Karpathy back working together by mid 2029

Oct 30, 11:55 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

130

Is Ilya Sutskever Aspie/autistic?

Oct 19, 6:54 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

Who has higher situational awareness: Andrej Karpathy or Ilya Sutskever?

Apr 25, 2:40 PM

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Prediction markets for Ilya

Prediction markets for Ilya

Prediction markets for Ilya

Will SSI (Ilya's company) offer a product before someone creates ASI?

Ilya Sutskever or Sam Altman personally joins manifold and is verified by mid 2025

Will "Ilya Sutskever Deposition Transcript" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Ilya Sutskever be replaced by a body double?

What caused Ilya to switch sides?

Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Will Ilya Gulko get a girlfriend by EOY 2027?

Ilya sutskever become a father by 2032?

Ilya Sutskever and Andrej Karpathy back working together by mid 2029

Is Ilya Sutskever Aspie/autistic?

Who has higher situational awareness: Andrej Karpathy or Ilya Sutskever?

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