Isaac King News

YES

NO

Ernie

Joshua

Chris/Strutheo

Jensen Huang

Sundar Pichai

Larry Page

Sergey Brin

Bill Gates

Bram Cohen

Vitalik Buterin

Demis Hassabis

Lex Fridman

Xi Jinping

Kim Jong Un

Jeff Dean

Isaac King

Geoffrey Hinton

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Ilya Sutskever

Austin (manifold)

Glenn Shotwell

Emad Mostaque

Greg Brockman

Bruce Schneier

AGM (chaos monkey)

Kind Edward

Patrick Collison

Balaji

Stewart Butterfeld

Prince Harry

Tim Sweeney

Peter Thiel

Garry Tan

Jessica Livingston

Andrew Ng

Robin Hanson

Trump

Dwarkesh Patel

Marc Andreesen

Larry Ellison

Grimes

Patrick McKenzie

Travis Kalanick

Lionel Messi

James (manifold)

Biden

Mark Zuckerberg

JK Rowling

Meghan Markle

Gavin Newsom

Prince William

Jack Dorsey

Martin Shkreli

Tyler Cowen

Oprah Winfrey

Paul Graham

Beff Jezos

Tim Ferriss

Elon Musk

Satya Nadella

Taylor Swift

Sam Altman

Joe Rogan

Before the end of 2026

Before the end of Jun 2025

Before the end of Dec 2025

Before the end of Apr 2024

Before the end of May 2024

Before the end of Jun 2024

Before the end of July 2024

Before the end of Aug 2024

Before the end of Sep 2024

Before the end of Oct 2024

Before the end of Nov 2024

Isaac likes experimenting

You'd say you're more of a dog person than a cat person

You've been in a desert once

You regret ever making WvM (feel free to n/a if you'd rather not say)

You have ever looked through list of a Manifold user's bets to determine their position on some question

You've been vegetarian for >1 continuous year

(if you're not married) you've thought about marrying your current partner (if you're in a relationship)

You like listening to violin more than you like listening to piano

You're older than me (I'm 23)

you consider your partner to be your best friend as well

You're younger than 30

You think it's fine for minors to date adults

You consider yourself part of the rationality sphere

You think of yourself as a dog person more than a cat person

You seem to enjoy indie stuff more than the average person does

you've defected on some sort of deal you made with another person

The first book you remember reading in your life has an animal as its main character

You tend to wear the same outfit every day.

You think the effective altruism philosophy is good but the community overall is ineffective in implementing that philosophy

You've spent a day in which you read a (single) book (or similar) for 10+ hrs

You're an effective altruist

You are qorrenqial

You've read the CFAR Handbook

You've held a gun in your hands before

You've fired a gun at a target before

You've jumped out of a plane

You have attended some program or camp organised by MIRI

You've knowingly misresolved a market once even though you didn't get called out for it

You've been to a nightclub

You've passed out from drinking alcohol

You like to eat out more than you like to cook and eat

You've worked with LED strip lights

You've wondered what it'd be like to have a different name

*You* have more than 6 stuffed animals

You know >4 programming langauges

You know >= 3 natural languages (in at least one of reading, speaking, or hearing understanding)

You've felt desires to purchase a car with mana

You have a political belief that'd cause at least one close friend to cut ties if they knew about it

You wish you spent significantly less time on Manifold

You sleep more during 7am->7pm hours than during 7pm->7am hours

You prefer if these answers start with "You" than with "isaac"

You feel you're the smartest member of your close family (mother, father, siblings)

You have thought about shooting lasers from your eyes at traffic lights

You have once made a joke about your name's similarity with Martin Luther King Jr.

You think the effective altruism community is ineffective at PR and image management

NO

Other

Tripping

Joshua

Tomek

Franklin Baldo

Conflux

eburk

Ammon Lam

Jack

memestiny

Isaac King

Snazzlepop

Richard Hanania

CateHall

Niko

tjohnson314

Data Chef

BTE

Tumbles

Predictor

Bayesian

Jackson Polack

jim

Jim wins the bet, Isaac pays up

Isaac wins the bet, Jim pays up

Isaac wins the bet, Jim does not pay up

YES

YES

NO