OptionProbability
Jess Wilson
Ben Carroll
Other
Warren Pickering
Jacinta Allan
Brad Battin
82
9
5
3
0
Group voting tickets are abolished before the election
The Age endorses Labor
Labor wins more seats than One Nation
Greens primary vote share increases
Greens win more seats than the Nationals
The election results in a hung parliament
Statewide Treaty Act 2025 is repealed by the end of 2027
Victoria holds a referendum on electoral reform by the end of 2028
SRL North is cancelled, postponed or downsized by the end of 2028
One Nation wins more seats than the Liberals
The Herald Sun endorses One Nation
Jacinta Allan leads Labor to the election
Jacinta Allan retains her seat
100
77
72
65
50
28
22
10
