Jan Little News

San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus

4 months ago

Will the decade from 2020 through the end of 2029 become known as the "Warring Twenties"?

Dec 19, 3:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.88%chance

251282

OptionVotes

YES

1417

819

Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?

Feb 18, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

13807

OptionVotes

YES

1863

1234

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16695

OptionProbability

2044-2045

2029-2030

2028-2029

2030-2031

2027-2028

2031-2032

2026-2027

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

What will I game on in 2035?

Dec 4, 9:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4443

OptionProbability

PC / Laptop

Home Console

Handheld Console

Augmented / Virtual Reality

Something totally other

Streaming to any device

Smartphone

Holodeck

Arcade Cabinet

Brain/Computer Interface

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Will Ben Delo (co-founder of BitMEX exchange) spend any time in prison before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.23%chance

5213

OptionVotes

YES

324

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7135

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

Will there be a sequel/remake to 'Big Trouble in Little China' announced before Jan 1st 2029?

Dec 14, 3:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.59%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

185

117

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
California
Politics
United States
San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus
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4 months ago

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Will the decade from 2020 through the end of 2029 become known as the "Warring Twenties"?

Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

What will I game on in 2035?

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Will Ben Delo (co-founder of BitMEX exchange) spend any time in prison before 2030?

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Will there be a sequel/remake to 'Big Trouble in Little China' announced before Jan 1st 2029?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram