Jan Little News
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Prediction markets for Jan Little
Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?
Feb 18, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.02%chance
223595
OptionVotes
2769
288
Will the decade from 2020 through the end of 2029 become known as the "Warring Twenties"?
Dec 19, 3:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
17.35%chance
261816
OptionVotes
1383
826
When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs
May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20838
OptionProbability
22
22
21
21
5
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
80
50
50
50
50
45
39
35
32
25
If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)
Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM
59.06%chance
4301
OptionVotes
1201
833
Will Ben Delo (co-founder of BitMEX exchange) spend any time in prison before 2030?
Dec 20, 12:57 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM
8.23%chance
5213
OptionVotes
324
78
OptionProbability
65
21
11
4
Will there be a sequel/remake to 'Big Trouble in Little China' announced before Jan 1st 2029?
Dec 14, 3:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
41.59%chance
687
OptionVotes
185
117
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