Jan Little News

San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus

7 months ago

Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?

Feb 18, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.15%chance

191708

OptionVotes

YES

1008

959

Will the decade from 2020 through the end of 2029 become known as the "Warring Twenties"?

Dec 19, 3:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.88%chance

251282

OptionVotes

YES

1417

819

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

May 6, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18774

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

2044-2045

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2031-2032

2024-2025

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

What will I game on in 2035?

Dec 4, 9:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4443

OptionProbability

PC / Laptop

Home Console

Handheld Console

Augmented / Virtual Reality

Something totally other

Streaming to any device

Smartphone

Holodeck

Arcade Cabinet

Brain/Computer Interface

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

Will Ben Delo (co-founder of BitMEX exchange) spend any time in prison before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.23%chance

5213

OptionVotes

YES

324

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

Will there be a sequel/remake to 'Big Trouble in Little China' announced before Jan 1st 2029?

Dec 14, 3:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.59%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

185

117

Latest stories

Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
California
Politics
United States
San Mateo County Opens 10-Day Hearing to Remove Sheriff Christina Corpus
Authors
3
7 months ago

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Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?

Will the decade from 2020 through the end of 2029 become known as the "Warring Twenties"?

When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs

What will I game on in 2035?

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Will Ben Delo (co-founder of BitMEX exchange) spend any time in prison before 2030?

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Will there be a sequel/remake to 'Big Trouble in Little China' announced before Jan 1st 2029?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram