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Prediction markets for Jeremiah

Will Gene McCarthy's DNA analysis of humans as bonobo/pig hybrids be confirmed by 2030?

Sep 7, 10:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.36%chance

4810748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3547

282

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.93%chance

723463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

1187

If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?

Sep 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121645

OptionProbability

2-3%

3-4%

1-2%

4-5%

0-1%

5-6%

Other

6-7%

-1 - 0%

30

22

16

9

8

4

4

3

3

Will a new web browser rendering engine reach over 2% market share by 2035?

Sep 26, 3:43 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.15%chance

17873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1360

670

Will the new porn-site age verification laws (US) survive in court?

Aug 10, 10:18 AMAug 11, 3:59 AM

90.05%chance

16646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

377

20

Will Trump make any successful recess appointments to his cabinet in 2025?

Nov 11, 5:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

11592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

46

Will Doors of Stone (Kingkiller Chronicles) be released before January 1st 2028?

Dec 1, 5:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.27%chance

11515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

89

Will UV surpass Poetry in monthly PyPi downloads in before the end of 2025?

Oct 16, 4:50 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

94.32%chance

10512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

407

25

Matt Darling Stock (permanent)

Apr 8, 9:07 PMApr 9, 3:59 AM

6171

OptionProbability

NO

YES

178

78

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2043?

Sep 1, 6:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

5148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

104

Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

May 25, 4:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.66%chance

783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

100

Will Neuralink achieve "combined I/O Bit rate > 1Mbs" by 2030?

Dec 14, 5:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.04%chance

14

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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