OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Kamala Harris
Mark Kelly
J.B. Pritzker
Jon Ossoff
Gretchen Whitmer
Raphael Warnock
Andy Beshear
Wes Moore
Ro Khanna
Ruben Gallego
Michelle Obama
Amy Klobuchar
Cory Booker
Kathy Hochul
Mark Cuban
Jamie Raskin
Jon Stewart
None
John Fetterman
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Jeff Jackson
Jared Polis
Mitch Landrieu
Roy Cooper
Dianne Feinstein
Jimmy Carter
Tim Walz
Chuck Schumer
Tim Kaine
Bernie Sanders
Tammy Duckworth
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Dwayne Johnson
[Duplicate - Invalid]
Hakeem Jeffries
Andrew Yang
Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II
Dean Phillips
Bob Ferguson
Jay Inslee
Anthony Blinken
Susan Rice
Scott Wiener
Donald Trump
Sam Altman
Jeff Merkley
Merrick Garland
Taylor Swift
Tammy Baldwin
Katie Porter
Phil Murphy
Cenk Uygur
Joe Manchin
Sherrod Brown
Chris Murphy
Brian Schatz
John Bel Edwards
Clark Duke
Stacey Abrams
Nina Turner
john smith
Duplicate ignore
Gina Raimondo
Ron Desantis
Beto O'Rourke
Vermin Supreme
Hunter Biden
Invalid answer
John Jacob
Alex Jones
Bob Roberston the IV
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Stephen A Smith
27
17
9
6
6
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J.D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Marco Rubio
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Kamala Harris
No 2028 Election
Jon Ossoff
Andy Beshear
JB Pritzker
Ro Khanna
Ron DeSantis
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Gretchen Whitmer
Mark Kelly
Ruben Gallego
Tim Walz
Donald Trump Jr
Chris Murphy
Barron Trump
Tulsi Gabbard
Rahm Emmanuel
Brian Kemp
Joe Rogan
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson
Amy Klobuchar
Kanye West
Hunter Biden
Mike Pence
Raphael Warnock
Jared Polis
Bernie Sanders
Greg Abbott
Nikki Haley
Stacey Abrams
Glenn Youngkin
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Roy Cooper
Tim Scott
Mitch Landrieu
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Katie Porter
Joe Biden
Tucker Carlson
Ration L. Ussy
Wes Moore
Mark Cuban
RFK Jr.
Tetraspace
Lina Khan
Shawn Fain
Elon Musk
Ritchie Torres
Taylor Swift
Barack Obama
Stephen A. Smith
Mickey Mouse
Ivanka Trump
Laura Loomer
Abigail Spanberger
Sam Altman
John Fetterman
Al Gore
Kathy Hochul
[deleted]
Josh Hawley
Ezra Klein
Tim Kaine
invalid
David McCormick
Andrew Yang
Anna Paulina Luna
Amaryllis Fox
AI Overlord
Duplicate - Will Resolve No
Duplicate - Will Resolve No
Mike Johnson
Steven Bonell (Destiny)
Jamie Dimon
Abrego Garcia
Andrew Cuomo
Chris Van Hollen
Invalid
invalid
Deval Patrick
Jasmine Crockett
Oprah Winfrey
Michelle Obama
Sheldon Whitehouse
Robert Prevost
Harambe
Josh Stein
Jeff Jackson
Rand Paul
Vivek Ramaswamy
Elissa Slotkin
22
20
10
7
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
The US leaves the World Health Organization
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
"The New Norm" ends
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
New James Bond actor is presented
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
Approval < 35%
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
trump gets hospitalized
A new supreme court justice appointed
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Fair elections in 2028
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
USA experiences a recession.
Vances have another kid
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Dow rises above 65,000
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
New
US Invasion of any North/South American country
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
US national bitcoin reserve created
Trump visits Africa
Congress overrides a presidential veto
The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
McDonald's reopens in Russia
A major war in Asia occurs
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Joe Biden dies
Trump says a racial slur
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
Trump and Obama shake hands
Tesla
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Trump announces he is tired of winning
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
New national park created
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Repeal obamacare
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
The department of education gets desolved
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
Constitutional Amendment
Anthony Fauci is indicted
JD Vance elected President
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
War is declared against another nation
10% fewer government agencies
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
55 or more Republican senate seats
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
Trump gets covid (again)
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Approval < 25%
American Manned Lunar Landing
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Trump gets shot
54 or more Republican senate seats
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Trump dies
Laura Loomer gets any government role
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Record level unemployment
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Another pandemic
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
south park is canceled/discontinued
Trump runs for a third term
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Cannabis is federally legalized
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump is assassinated
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Trump loses the fake tan
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Trump is seen shirtless
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
A national ban on gender-affirming care
Starship lands on Mars
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
"covfefe" posted again
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Constitutional Amendment
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump and Melania divorce
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
New US national anthem
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
95
94
92
91
90
90
89
88
88
86
86
86
85
83
83
82
82
81
80
79
79
79
78
77
77
76
75
75
73
72
71
70
70
70
70
70
68
67
67
67
66
65
64
64
63
61
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
50
50
49
49
49
49
48
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
44
44
44
43
43
42
41
41
40
39
38
38
37
37
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
34
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
27
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
23
22
21
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jack Thorne
Hong Wang
Jacob Tsimerman
Yu Deng
Javier Fresan
Sam Raskin
Yibo Gao
John Pardon
Other
Julian Sahasrabudhe
Song Sun
Will Sawin
Aleksandr Logunov
Vesselin Dimitrov
Alexander Efimov
Frederick Manners
David Budden
Maksym Radziwill
Karim Adiprasito
Tatenda Kubalalika
Elia Bruè
Amol Aggarwal
Akhil Mathew
Ashwin Sah
Maria Colombo
Simion Filip
Jeremy Hahn
Lisa Sauermann
Dennis Gaitsgory
(duplicate, will resolve no)
Xian-Jin Li
Mike Wolf
Joseph Palmer
A non-human (e.g. an LLM)
Jacob Braunschweig
Miguel Walsh
Igor Rodnianski
Tasuki Kinjo
Junliang Shen
Hannah Larson
Justin Fields
Yuansi Chen
Tom Hutchcroft
yunqing tang
Noé Cruchet
Vincent Tassion
Tony Yu
Ziyang Gao
Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis
21
20
16
7
7
5
5
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
JD Vance
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Donald Trump
Gretchen Whitmer
Jamie Dimon
Mark Kelly
Kamala Harris
None
Ron DeSantis
Andy Beshear
JB Pritzker
Nikki Haley
Michelle Obama
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Tulsi Gabbard
Tucker Carlson
Donald Trump Jr.
Tim Walz
John Fetterman
Mark Cuban
Ruben Gallego
Ro Khanna
Vivek Ramaswamy
Joe Biden
Tim Scott
Katie Hobbs
Greg Abbott
Elizabeth Warren
Mike Johnson
Ted Cruz
Mike Pence
Jared Polis
Ivanka Trump
Elon Musk
Sam Altman
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Elise Stefanik
Kristi Noem
Nicole Shanahan
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
George Clooney
Tom Hanks
Steven Pinker
Patrick Stewart
George R R Martin
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Kanye West
Doug Burgum
Jeff Jackson
Glenn Youngkin
Barack Obama
Oprah Winfrey
Hillary Clinton
Joe Rogan
22
19
19
6
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
We don't find out by end of 2026
Other
Pete Hegseth (SecDef)
Barron Trump
Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)
Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)
JD Vance (VP)
Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)
Marco Rubio (Sec State)
John Ratcliffe (CIA)
Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)
Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)
Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)
86
10
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Josh Shapiro
Pete Buttigieg
Mark Kelly
JB Pritzker
There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism
Andy Beshear
Kamala Harris
Gretchen Whitmer
Raphael Warnock
Jon Ossoff
Wes Moore
Ruben Gallego
Ro Khanna
Jacob Frey
Mark Cuban
Cory Booker
James Talarico
Jamie Dimon
Colin Allred
Jared Polis
Amy Klobuchar
Tim Walz
Connor Duffy
[Invalid - Duplicate]
Yishan Wong
Adolf Hitler
Michelle Obama
Andrew Cuomo
John Fetterman
Stephen A. Smith
Ritchie Torres
Elissa Slotkin
Rahm Emanuel
Jill Biden
No one
Jasmine Crockett
After the American Civil war 2, a military hero recognized for contributions during the conflict will be nominated
Chris Van Hollen
Hakeem Jeffries
Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)
Zohran Mamdani
Noam Chomsky
Mikie Sherrill
Taylor Swift
Liz Cheney
Kirsten Gillibrand
Ezra Klein
Andrew Yang
Invalid
Josh Green
Chris Murphy
Bernie Sanders
John Stewart
George Washington
Paris Hilton
Donald Trump
Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione
George Clooney
27
13
9
7
6
6
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Josh Hawley
Gretchen Whitmer
Marco Rubio
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Mark Kelly
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
J. B. Pritzker
Andy Beshear
Jon Ossoff
Ron DeSantis
Elise Stefanik
Wes Moore
Mark Cuban
Nikki Haley
Jeff Jackson
Stephen Miller
Vivek Ramaswamy
Cory Booker
Raphael Warnock
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Chris Sununu
Katie Hobbs
Tim Scott
Brian Kemp
Kristi Noem
Beto O'Rourke
John Fetterman
Tom Cotton
Brian Schatz
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Tammy Baldwin
Kevin Stitt
Spencer Cox
Tate Reeves
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Ted Cruz
Joe Rogan
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Jared Polis
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Catherine Cortez Masto
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Ruben Gallego
Donald Trump Jr.
Erika Kirk
Kamala Harris
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Tucker Carlson
Will Hurd
Tulsi Gabbard
Dan Crenshaw
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang
Stephen Colbert
Stephen Curry
Markwayne Mullin
Rand Paul
Joe Manchin
Maura Healey
Ivanka Trump
David Hogg
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mark Zuckerberg
Mike Pence
Jon Stewart
DUPLICATE
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Sam Altman
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Tim Walz
Al Gore
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
41
23
18
18
15
13
13
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
JD Vance (Vice President)
Gavin Newsom (California Governor)
Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)
Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)
Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)
Kamala Harris (Vice President)
Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)
Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)
Donald Trump Jr.
Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)
Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)
Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)
Michelle Obama (First Lady)
Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)
Mark Cuban
Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)
Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)
Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)
Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)
Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)
John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)
27
26
15
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Ken Paxton
John Cornyn
James Talarico
Jasmine Crockett
Wesley Hunt
Other
Collin Allred
33
30
25
8
3
2
0
OptionProbability
secret cabal of pedophiles in high places
The UK did Nordstream
JFK wasn't killed by LHO acting alone and on his own initiative.
Emperor Nero didn't kill himself
Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked
The Boeing whistleblower didn't kill himself
massive mail ballot fraud in 2020
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
US government found intelligent extraterrestrials
Trump is a Russian agent
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Chemtrails
Harold Holt didn't drown or was whacked
Capote ghostwrote To Kill a Mockingbird
Jimmy Hoffa was whacked
The moon landing was faked
The Holocaust was largely exaggerated
30
30
11
10
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
3
2
OptionProbability
Other
[None - Position will cease to exist]
Mira Murati
Elon Musk
Sam Altman
Greg Brockman
Bret Taylor
Larry Summers
Adam D'Angelo
Andrej Karpathy
Eric Schmidt
Paul Graham
Peter Thiel
Wojciech Zaremba
Ben Horowitz
Jessica Livingston
Marc Benioff
Sheryl Sandberg
Tim Cook
John Doerr
Reed Hastings
Fei Fei Lee
Alexander Wang
George Hotz
Brad Lightcap
Bob Mcgrew
Peter Welinder
Jason Kwon
Mark Chen
Helen Toner
Ilya Sutskever
Emmett Shear
Dario Amodei
Satya Nadela
Jeff Bezos
Demis Hassabis
Robin Li
Clément Delangue
Lila Ibrahim
Alex Karp
Reid Hoffman
Raquel Urtasun
Marc Andreessen
Aidan Gomez
Sandra Rivera
Gary Marcus
Jaime Teevan
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Anna Makanju
Shane Legg
Andrew Ng
Pushmeet Kohli
Yann LeCun
Mark Zuckerberg
Yoshua Bengio
Hinton
Marissa Mayer
Spencer Rascoff
Garry Tan
51
12
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

