OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jon Ossoff
Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Andy Beshear
Mark Kelly
Gretchen Whitmer
J.B. Pritzker
Jon Stewart
Michelle Obama
Raphael Warnock
Cory Booker
Roy Cooper
Wes Moore
Ro Khanna
Mark Cuban
Hunter Biden
Ruben Gallego
None
John Fetterman
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Jeff Jackson
Jared Polis
Amy Klobuchar
Mitch Landrieu
Dianne Feinstein
Jimmy Carter
Tim Walz
Chuck Schumer
Tim Kaine
Bernie Sanders
Tammy Duckworth
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Dwayne Johnson
[Duplicate - Invalid]
Hakeem Jeffries
Andrew Yang
Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II
Dean Phillips
Bob Ferguson
Jay Inslee
Kathy Hochul
Anthony Blinken
Susan Rice
Scott Wiener
Donald Trump
Sam Altman
Jeff Merkley
Merrick Garland
Taylor Swift
Tammy Baldwin
Katie Porter
Phil Murphy
Cenk Uygur
Jamie Raskin
Joe Manchin
Sherrod Brown
Chris Murphy
Brian Schatz
John Bel Edwards
Clark Duke
Stacey Abrams
Nina Turner
john smith
Duplicate ignore
Gina Raimondo
Ron Desantis
Beto O'Rourke
Vermin Supreme
Invalid answer
John Jacob
Alex Jones
Bob Roberston the IV
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Stephen A Smith
25
15
10
10
7
5
5
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J.D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Marco Rubio
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jon Ossoff
No 2028 Election
Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Raphael Warnock
Gretchen Whitmer
Greg Abbott
Tucker Carlson
Andy Beshear
JB Pritzker
Abigail Spanberger
Rahm Emmanuel
Andrew Yang
AI Overlord
Mike Johnson
Joe Rogan
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson
Ted Cruz
Amy Klobuchar
Kanye West
Hunter Biden
Mike Pence
Jared Polis
Mark Kelly
Bernie Sanders
Nikki Haley
Stacey Abrams
Glenn Youngkin
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Roy Cooper
Tim Scott
Mitch Landrieu
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Ruben Gallego
Katie Porter
Joe Biden
Wes Moore
Ration L. Ussy
Mark Cuban
Tim Walz
RFK Jr.
Tetraspace
Lina Khan
Shawn Fain
Donald Trump Jr
Elon Musk
Ritchie Torres
Taylor Swift
Barack Obama
Chris Murphy
Stephen A. Smith
Mickey Mouse
Ivanka Trump
Barron Trump
Laura Loomer
Sam Altman
John Fetterman
Ro Khanna
Tulsi Gabbard
Al Gore
Kathy Hochul
[deleted]
Josh Hawley
Ezra Klein
Tim Kaine
invalid
Brian Kemp
David McCormick
Anna Paulina Luna
Amaryllis Fox
Duplicate - Will Resolve No
Duplicate - Will Resolve No
Steven Bonell (Destiny)
Jamie Dimon
Abrego Garcia
Andrew Cuomo
Chris Van Hollen
Invalid
invalid
Deval Patrick
Jasmine Crockett
Oprah Winfrey
Michelle Obama
Sheldon Whitehouse
Robert Prevost
Harambe
Josh Stein
Jeff Jackson
Rand Paul
Vivek Ramaswamy
Elissa Slotkin
19
14
13
7
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
A major war in Asia occurs
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
Trump visits Africa
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
The US leaves the World Health Organization
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
New James Bond actor is presented
"The New Norm" ends
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
Fair elections in 2028
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
US national bitcoin reserve created
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Approval < 35%
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
A new supreme court justice appointed
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
USA experiences a recession.
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Vances have another kid
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
trump gets hospitalized
US Invasion of any North/South American country
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
N/A this please, pressed by mistake
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
McDonald's reopens in Russia
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
New
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Trump and Obama shake hands
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Dow rises above 65,000
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump says a racial slur
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
Tesla
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Joe Biden dies
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
10% fewer government agencies
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump gets covid (again)
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
New national park created
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
Trump announces he is tired of winning
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Constitutional Amendment
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
NATO invokes Article 5
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
American Manned Lunar Landing
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
Trump gets shot
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
Anthony Fauci is indicted
JD Vance elected President
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Another pandemic
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
The department of education gets desolved
Starship lands on Mars
Record level unemployment
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
War is declared against another nation
Trump dies
Laura Loomer gets any government role
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
Approval < 25%
Trump loses the fake tan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
south park is canceled/discontinued
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump runs for a third term
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump extends his term past 4 years
54 or more Republican senate seats
Trump is assassinated
Cannabis is federally legalized
Trump and Melania divorce
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once
55 or more Republican senate seats
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
A national ban on gender-affirming care
"covfefe" posted again
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump threatens Israel with military action
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Repeal obamacare
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Constitutional Amendment
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Anthony Fauci is convicted
New US national anthem
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
96
94
92
91
91
90
90
90
90
89
88
88
86
86
85
84
83
83
83
82
81
78
78
78
78
77
77
76
75
72
72
71
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
69
68
67
67
67
65
65
64
62
60
59
58
56
56
56
55
55
54
53
52
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
48
47
46
45
44
43
43
43
42
42
41
41
40
39
39
38
38
37
37
36
35
35
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
32
32
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
27
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
17
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jacob Tsimerman
Hong Wang
John Pardon
Yu Deng
Jack Thorne
Other
Xian-Jin Li
Sam Raskin
Julian Sahasrabudhe
Will Sawin
Aleksandr Logunov
Vesselin Dimitrov
Alexander Efimov
Javier Fresan
Maksym Radziwill
Karim Adiprasito
Song Sun
Tatenda Kubalalika
Elia Bruè
Amol Aggarwal
Akhil Mathew
Ashwin Sah
Maria Colombo
Simion Filip
Jeremy Hahn
Lisa Sauermann
Dennis Gaitsgory
(duplicate, will resolve no)
Yibo Gao
Mike Wolf
Joseph Palmer
A non-human (e.g. an LLM)
Jacob Braunschweig
Miguel Walsh
Igor Rodnianski
Tasuki Kinjo
Junliang Shen
Hannah Larson
Justin Fields
Frederick Manners
Yuansi Chen
Tom Hutchcroft
yunqing tang
Noé Cruchet
Vincent Tassion
Tony Yu
David Budden
Ziyang Gao
Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis
Daniel Restrepo
Matteo Verni
Jiaoyang Huang
19
19
13
13
12
5
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gannon Ken Van Dyke
We don't find out by end of 2026
JD Vance (VP)
Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)
Pete Hegseth (SecDef)
Barron Trump
Marco Rubio (Sec State)
John Ratcliffe (CIA)
Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)
Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)
Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)
Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)
Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)
Other
98
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
JD Vance
Gavin Newsom
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Josh Shapiro
Gretchen Whitmer
Ron DeSantis
JB Pritzker
Tucker Carlson
Mark Kelly
Donald Trump
None
Andy Beshear
Elizabeth Warren
Nikki Haley
Ted Cruz
Michelle Obama
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Tulsi Gabbard
Jamie Dimon
Donald Trump Jr.
Tim Walz
John Fetterman
Mark Cuban
Ruben Gallego
Ro Khanna
Vivek Ramaswamy
Joe Biden
Tim Scott
Katie Hobbs
Greg Abbott
Mike Johnson
Mike Pence
Jared Polis
Ivanka Trump
Elon Musk
Sam Altman
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Elise Stefanik
Kristi Noem
Nicole Shanahan
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
George Clooney
Tom Hanks
Steven Pinker
Patrick Stewart
George R R Martin
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Kanye West
Doug Burgum
Jeff Jackson
Glenn Youngkin
Barack Obama
Oprah Winfrey
Hillary Clinton
Joe Rogan
21
19
15
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jon Ossoff
Kamala Harris
Rahm Emanuel
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Mark Kelly
Andy Beshear
Ro Khanna
Gretchen Whitmer
JB Pritzker
Michelle Obama
There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism
Wes Moore
Bernie Sanders
John Stewart
Colin Allred
Raphael Warnock
Jared Polis
Tim Walz
Amy Klobuchar
Connor Duffy
[Invalid - Duplicate]
Yishan Wong
Adolf Hitler
Mark Cuban
Andrew Cuomo
John Fetterman
Stephen A. Smith
Ritchie Torres
Elissa Slotkin
Jill Biden
Invalid
Jasmine Crockett
Cory Booker
Invalid
Ruben Gallego
Chris Van Hollen
Hakeem Jeffries
Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)
Zohran Mamdani
Jacob Frey
Noam Chomsky
Mikie Sherrill
Taylor Swift
Liz Cheney
Kirsten Gillibrand
Ezra Klein
Andrew Yang
James Talarico
Invalid
Josh Green
Chris Murphy
Jamie Dimon
George Washington
Paris Hilton
Donald Trump
Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione
George Clooney
Bob brooks
25
11
10
10
6
6
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Pete Buttigieg
Marco Rubio
Josh Hawley
Gretchen Whitmer
Jon Ossoff
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
Andy Beshear
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
Mark Kelly
Wes Moore
Stephen Miller
Nikki Haley
Vivek Ramaswamy
Elise Stefanik
J. B. Pritzker
Cory Booker
Raphael Warnock
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Chris Sununu
Mark Cuban
Donald Trump Jr.
Sam Altman
Tim Scott
Brian Kemp
Kristi Noem
Beto O'Rourke
John Fetterman
Mark Zuckerberg
Tom Cotton
Brian Schatz
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Tammy Baldwin
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Kevin Stitt
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Jeff Jackson
Ted Cruz
Tulsi Gabbard
Joe Rogan
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Jared Polis
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Catherine Cortez Masto
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Katie Hobbs
Spencer Cox
Tate Reeves
Ruben Gallego
Erika Kirk
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Tucker Carlson
Will Hurd
Dan Crenshaw
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang
Stephen Colbert
Stephen Curry
Markwayne Mullin
Rand Paul
Joe Manchin
Maura Healey
Ivanka Trump
David Hogg
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mike Pence
Jon Stewart
DUPLICATE
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Tim Walz
Al Gore
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
44
22
18
17
15
13
12
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
JD Vance (Vice President)
Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
Gavin Newsom (California Governor)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)
Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)
Kamala Harris (Vice President)
Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)
Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)
Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)
Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)
Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)
Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)
Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)
Donald Trump Jr.
Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)
Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)
Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)
Ro Khanna (California Congressman)
Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)
Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)
Michelle Obama (First Lady)
Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)
Mark Cuban
Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)
John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)
24
18
14
13
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gauss
Archimedes
Euler
@121
Other
Von Neumann
Alexander Grothendieck
Newton
Kurt Gödel
David Hilbert
Augustin-Louis Cauchy
Pythagoras
Euclid (of Geometry)
Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)
Erdos (on amphetamines)
Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)
Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)
Ramanujan
Poincare
Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)
Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)
Trick question; there are no mathematicians.
Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night
sixtynine, you filthy casuals
David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)
The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis
Ludwig Wittgenstein
John Conway (group theory, among others)
the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero
Descartes
Leibniz
Bourbaki
Laplace
@Mira
Georg Cantor
Frank Ramsey
Fermat
Emmy Noether
Ada Lovelace
.
p
Terry Tao
DottedCalculator
GPT8
Riemann
Claude Shannon
God
Alan Turing
Grigori Perelman
Olga Ladyzhenskaya
Weyl, Weyl
John Gabriel
Michael Atiyah
55
25
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
secret cabal of pedophiles in high places
The UK did Nordstream
JFK wasn't killed by LHO acting alone and on his own initiative.
Emperor Nero didn't kill himself
Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked
massive mail ballot fraud in 2020
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
US government found intelligent extraterrestrials
Trump is a Russian agent
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Chemtrails
The Boeing whistleblower didn't kill himself
Harold Holt didn't drown or was whacked
Jimmy Hoffa was whacked
Capote ghostwrote To Kill a Mockingbird
The Holocaust was largely exaggerated
The moon landing was faked
30
21
11
10
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
2
1
OptionProbability
Other
[None - Position will cease to exist]
Mira Murati
Elon Musk
Greg Brockman
Sam Altman
Bret Taylor
Larry Summers
Adam D'Angelo
Andrej Karpathy
Eric Schmidt
Paul Graham
Peter Thiel
Wojciech Zaremba
Ben Horowitz
Jessica Livingston
Marc Benioff
Sheryl Sandberg
Tim Cook
John Doerr
Reed Hastings
Fei Fei Lee
Alexander Wang
George Hotz
Brad Lightcap
Bob Mcgrew
Peter Welinder
Jason Kwon
Mark Chen
Helen Toner
Ilya Sutskever
Emmett Shear
Dario Amodei
Satya Nadela
Jeff Bezos
Demis Hassabis
Robin Li
Clément Delangue
Lila Ibrahim
Alex Karp
Reid Hoffman
Raquel Urtasun
Marc Andreessen
Aidan Gomez
Sandra Rivera
Gary Marcus
Jaime Teevan
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Anna Makanju
Shane Legg
Andrew Ng
Pushmeet Kohli
Yann LeCun
Mark Zuckerberg
Yoshua Bengio
Hinton
Marissa Mayer
Spencer Rascoff
Garry Tan
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

