OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Jon Ossoff
Josh Shapiro
Andy Beshear
Mark Kelly
Gretchen Whitmer
J.B. Pritzker
Jared Polis
Michelle Obama
Amy Klobuchar
Raphael Warnock
Cory Booker
Roy Cooper
Bernie Sanders
Wes Moore
Hakeem Jeffries
Ro Khanna
Mark Cuban
Jon Stewart
Ruben Gallego
None
John Fetterman
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Jeff Jackson
Mitch Landrieu
Dianne Feinstein
Jimmy Carter
Tim Walz
Chuck Schumer
Tim Kaine
Tammy Duckworth
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloomberg
Dwayne Johnson
[Duplicate - Invalid]
Andrew Yang
Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II
Dean Phillips
Bob Ferguson
Jay Inslee
Kathy Hochul
Anthony Blinken
Susan Rice
Scott Wiener
Donald Trump
Sam Altman
Jeff Merkley
Merrick Garland
Taylor Swift
Tammy Baldwin
Katie Porter
Phil Murphy
Cenk Uygur
Jamie Raskin
Joe Manchin
Sherrod Brown
Chris Murphy
Brian Schatz
John Bel Edwards
Clark Duke
Stacey Abrams
Nina Turner
john smith
Duplicate ignore
Gina Raimondo
Ron Desantis
Beto O'Rourke
Vermin Supreme
Hunter Biden
Invalid answer
John Jacob
Alex Jones
Bob Roberston the IV
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Stephen A Smith
27
15
10
7
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J.D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Marco Rubio
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Other
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
No 2028 Election
Josh Shapiro
Jon Ossoff
Ted Cruz
Amy Klobuchar
Raphael Warnock
Mark Kelly
Nikki Haley
Tucker Carlson
Andy Beshear
JB Pritzker
Rahm Emmanuel
Andrew Yang
AI Overlord
Robert Prevost
Ron DeSantis
Joe Rogan
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson
Kanye West
Hunter Biden
Mike Pence
Jared Polis
Gretchen Whitmer
Bernie Sanders
Greg Abbott
Stacey Abrams
Glenn Youngkin
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Roy Cooper
Tim Scott
Mitch Landrieu
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Ruben Gallego
Katie Porter
Joe Biden
Ration L. Ussy
Wes Moore
Mark Cuban
Tim Walz
RFK Jr.
Tetraspace
Lina Khan
Shawn Fain
Donald Trump Jr
Elon Musk
Ritchie Torres
Taylor Swift
Barack Obama
Chris Murphy
Stephen A. Smith
Mickey Mouse
Ivanka Trump
Barron Trump
Laura Loomer
Abigail Spanberger
Sam Altman
John Fetterman
Ro Khanna
Tulsi Gabbard
Al Gore
Kathy Hochul
[deleted]
Josh Hawley
Ezra Klein
Tim Kaine
invalid
Brian Kemp
David McCormick
Anna Paulina Luna
Amaryllis Fox
Duplicate - Will Resolve No
Duplicate - Will Resolve No
Mike Johnson
Steven Bonell (Destiny)
Jamie Dimon
Abrego Garcia
Andrew Cuomo
Chris Van Hollen
Invalid
invalid
Deval Patrick
Jasmine Crockett
Oprah Winfrey
Michelle Obama
Sheldon Whitehouse
Harambe
Josh Stein
Jeff Jackson
Rand Paul
Vivek Ramaswamy
Elissa Slotkin
20
15
14
7
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
A major war in Asia occurs
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
The US leaves the World Health Organization
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
"The New Norm" ends
New James Bond actor is presented
Fair elections in 2028
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Approval < 35%
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
A new supreme court justice appointed
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
Vances have another kid
USA experiences a recession.
US Invasion of any North/South American country
trump gets hospitalized
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
N/A this please, pressed by mistake
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
New
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Dow rises above 65,000
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Trump says a racial slur
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Trump and Obama shake hands
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)
Trump visits Africa
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
US national bitcoin reserve created
Tesla
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Joe Biden dies
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
10% fewer government agencies
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
New national park created
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Constitutional Amendment
NATO invokes Article 5
Another pandemic
The department of education gets desolved
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
Repeal obamacare
JD Vance elected President
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
Trump announces he is tired of winning
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
American Manned Lunar Landing
Trump gets covid (again)
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Trump gets shot
Approval < 25%
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
War is declared against another nation
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Trump dies
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Laura Loomer gets any government role
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Trump runs for a third term
Trump loses the fake tan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
55 or more Republican senate seats
Record level unemployment
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
south park is canceled/discontinued
Starship lands on Mars
54 or more Republican senate seats
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump is assassinated
Cannabis is federally legalized
Trump and Melania divorce
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
"covfefe" posted again
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
A national ban on gender-affirming care
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Constitutional Amendment
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Anthony Fauci is convicted
New US national anthem
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
96
94
90
90
89
89
88
88
88
88
87
86
86
85
85
83
83
82
81
78
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
72
72
71
70
70
70
69
68
68
68
68
68
67
67
66
65
65
64
62
62
58
57
56
55
55
54
54
53
51
50
50
50
50
47
47
45
45
45
42
42
41
41
41
40
40
40
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
32
32
31
30
30
30
30
30
29
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
22
21
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gannon Ken Van Dyke
We don't find out by end of 2026
JD Vance (VP)
Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)
Pete Hegseth (SecDef)
Barron Trump
Marco Rubio (Sec State)
John Ratcliffe (CIA)
Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)
Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)
Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)
Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)
Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)
Other
98
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Hong Wang
Other
Jacob Tsimerman
Jack Thorne
John Pardon
Aleksandr Logunov
Yu Deng
Sam Raskin
Vesselin Dimitrov
Matteo Verni
Julian Sahasrabudhe
Will Sawin
Maria Colombo
Yibo Gao
Tom Hutchcroft
Javier Fresan
Maksym Radziwill
Karim Adiprasito
Song Sun
Tatenda Kubalalika
Elia Bruè
Amol Aggarwal
Akhil Mathew
Ashwin Sah
Alexander Efimov
Simion Filip
Jeremy Hahn
Lisa Sauermann
Dennis Gaitsgory
(duplicate, will resolve no)
Xian-Jin Li
Mike Wolf
Joseph Palmer
A non-human (e.g. an LLM)
Jacob Braunschweig
Miguel Walsh
Igor Rodnianski
Tasuki Kinjo
Junliang Shen
Hannah Larson
Justin Fields
Frederick Manners
Yuansi Chen
yunqing tang
Noé Cruchet
Vincent Tassion
Tony Yu
David Budden
Ziyang Gao
Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis
Daniel Restrepo
24
20
14
12
9
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
JD Vance
Gavin Newsom
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Kamala Harris
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Gretchen Whitmer
JB Pritzker
Tucker Carlson
Mark Kelly
Donald Trump
None
Ron DeSantis
Andy Beshear
Elizabeth Warren
Nikki Haley
Ted Cruz
Michelle Obama
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Tulsi Gabbard
Jamie Dimon
Donald Trump Jr.
Tim Walz
John Fetterman
Mark Cuban
Ruben Gallego
Ro Khanna
Vivek Ramaswamy
Joe Biden
Tim Scott
Katie Hobbs
Greg Abbott
Mike Johnson
Mike Pence
Jared Polis
Ivanka Trump
Elon Musk
Sam Altman
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Elise Stefanik
Kristi Noem
Nicole Shanahan
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
George Clooney
Tom Hanks
Steven Pinker
Patrick Stewart
George R R Martin
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Kanye West
Doug Burgum
Jeff Jackson
Glenn Youngkin
Barack Obama
Oprah Winfrey
Hillary Clinton
Joe Rogan
21
20
15
8
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gavin Newsom
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Josh Shapiro
Mark Kelly
Jon Ossoff
JB Pritzker
Andy Beshear
Gretchen Whitmer
Raphael Warnock
Rahm Emanuel
There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism
Ruben Gallego
Ro Khanna
James Talarico
Bernie Sanders
Colin Allred
Jared Polis
Tim Walz
Amy Klobuchar
Connor Duffy
[Invalid - Duplicate]
Yishan Wong
Adolf Hitler
Mark Cuban
Michelle Obama
Andrew Cuomo
John Fetterman
Stephen A. Smith
Ritchie Torres
Elissa Slotkin
Jill Biden
Wes Moore
Invalid
Jasmine Crockett
Cory Booker
Invalid
Chris Van Hollen
Hakeem Jeffries
Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)
Zohran Mamdani
Jacob Frey
Noam Chomsky
Mikie Sherrill
Taylor Swift
Liz Cheney
Kirsten Gillibrand
Ezra Klein
Andrew Yang
Invalid
Josh Green
Chris Murphy
John Stewart
Jamie Dimon
George Washington
Paris Hilton
Donald Trump
Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione
George Clooney
27
15
10
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Pete Buttigieg
Marco Rubio
Josh Hawley
Gretchen Whitmer
Jon Ossoff
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
Andy Beshear
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
Mark Kelly
Nikki Haley
Wes Moore
Mark Cuban
Stephen Miller
Vivek Ramaswamy
Elise Stefanik
J. B. Pritzker
Cory Booker
Raphael Warnock
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Chris Sununu
Jeff Jackson
Donald Trump Jr.
Tim Scott
Brian Kemp
Kristi Noem
Beto O'Rourke
John Fetterman
Tom Cotton
Brian Schatz
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Tammy Baldwin
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Kevin Stitt
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Ted Cruz
Tulsi Gabbard
Joe Rogan
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Jared Polis
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Catherine Cortez Masto
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Katie Hobbs
Spencer Cox
Tate Reeves
Ruben Gallego
Erika Kirk
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Tucker Carlson
Will Hurd
Dan Crenshaw
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang
Stephen Colbert
Stephen Curry
Markwayne Mullin
Rand Paul
Joe Manchin
Maura Healey
Ivanka Trump
David Hogg
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mark Zuckerberg
Mike Pence
Jon Stewart
DUPLICATE
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Sam Altman
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Tim Walz
Al Gore
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
47
22
18
17
16
13
12
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
JD Vance (Vice President)
Gavin Newsom (California Governor)
Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)
Kamala Harris (Vice President)
Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)
Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)
Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)
Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)
Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)
Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)
Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)
Donald Trump Jr.
Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)
Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)
Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)
Ro Khanna (California Congressman)
Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)
Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)
Michelle Obama (First Lady)
Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)
Mark Cuban
Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)
Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)
John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)
26
20
13
13
5
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gauss
Archimedes
Euler
@121
Other
Von Neumann
Alexander Grothendieck
Newton
Kurt Gödel
David Hilbert
Augustin-Louis Cauchy
Pythagoras
Euclid (of Geometry)
Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)
Erdos (on amphetamines)
Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)
Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)
Ramanujan
Poincare
Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)
Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)
Trick question; there are no mathematicians.
Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night
sixtynine, you filthy casuals
David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)
The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis
Ludwig Wittgenstein
John Conway (group theory, among others)
the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero
Descartes
Leibniz
Bourbaki
Laplace
@Mira
Georg Cantor
Frank Ramsey
Fermat
Emmy Noether
Ada Lovelace
.
p
Terry Tao
DottedCalculator
GPT8
Riemann
Claude Shannon
God
Alan Turing
Grigori Perelman
Olga Ladyzhenskaya
Weyl, Weyl
John Gabriel
Michael Atiyah
55
25
5
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
secret cabal of pedophiles in high places
The UK did Nordstream
JFK wasn't killed by LHO acting alone and on his own initiative.
Emperor Nero didn't kill himself
Bill or Hillary Clinton had someone whacked
massive mail ballot fraud in 2020
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
US government found intelligent extraterrestrials
Trump is a Russian agent
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Chemtrails
The Boeing whistleblower didn't kill himself
Harold Holt didn't drown or was whacked
Jimmy Hoffa was whacked
Capote ghostwrote To Kill a Mockingbird
The Holocaust was largely exaggerated
The moon landing was faked
30
21
11
10
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
2
1
OptionProbability
Other
[None - Position will cease to exist]
Mira Murati
Elon Musk
Greg Brockman
Sam Altman
Bret Taylor
Larry Summers
Adam D'Angelo
Andrej Karpathy
Eric Schmidt
Paul Graham
Peter Thiel
Wojciech Zaremba
Ben Horowitz
Jessica Livingston
Marc Benioff
Sheryl Sandberg
Tim Cook
John Doerr
Reed Hastings
Fei Fei Lee
Alexander Wang
George Hotz
Brad Lightcap
Bob Mcgrew
Peter Welinder
Jason Kwon
Mark Chen
Helen Toner
Ilya Sutskever
Emmett Shear
Dario Amodei
Satya Nadela
Jeff Bezos
Demis Hassabis
Robin Li
Clément Delangue
Lila Ibrahim
Alex Karp
Reid Hoffman
Raquel Urtasun
Marc Andreessen
Aidan Gomez
Sandra Rivera
Gary Marcus
Jaime Teevan
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Anna Makanju
Shane Legg
Andrew Ng
Pushmeet Kohli
Yann LeCun
Mark Zuckerberg
Yoshua Bengio
Hinton
Marissa Mayer
Spencer Rascoff
Garry Tan
52
12
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

