Joshua Wöhle News

Other

@Bayesian

Eliza

@SemioticRivalry

@Joshua

@jacksonpolack

@EvanDaniel

@Ziddletwix

@realDonaldTrump

@ItsMe

@geuber

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@Lorxus

@Anthem

@jgyou aka JGY

@roma

@jcb

@WilliamEhlhardt

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@jskf

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@AlexbGoode (NO)

@AnthonyPeterson (NO)

@tiswtr (NO)

@snoozingnewt (NO)

@case (NO)

@Nikos (NO)

@Primer

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB (NO)

@dylanslagh [dup]

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint (NO)

@vansh (NO)

@Charlie (NO)

@CamillePerrin (NO)

Jalen Hurts

Sam Darnold

Josh Allen

Lamar Jackson

Caleb Williams

Drake Maye

Joe Burrow

Jared Goff

Brock Purdy

Justin Herbert

Jordan Love

Jayden Daniels

Bo Nix

Baker Mayfield

Cam Ward

Trevor Lawrence

Jaxson Dart

C.J. Stroud

Dak Prescott

Kyler Murray

Bryce Young

Anthony Richardson

Tua Tagovailoa

Daniel Jones

J.J. McCarthy

Michael Penix Jr.

Mac Jones

Sam Howell

Justin Fields

Kirk Cousins

Shedeur Sanders

Zach Wilson

Gartner Minshew

Will Levis

Jarrett Stidham

Aiden O'Connell

Desmond Ridder

Bailey Zappe

Tyler Huntley

Jake Browning

DeShaun Watson

Kenny Pickett

Tyrod Taylor

Nick Mullens

Joshua Doubs

Mason Rudolph

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jameis Winston

Case Keenum

Andy Dalton

P.J. Walker

Ryan Tannehill

Other

@Bayesian

@AmmonLam

@SemioticRivalry

@10thOfficial

@Joshua

@mckiev

@jacksonpolack

@SG

@ItsMe

@Eliza

@Ziddletwix

@brod

@Tumbles

Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth

Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders

ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)

Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ

ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive

Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya

Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council

Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons

Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council

Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council

Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election

Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council

Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets

Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire

Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest

Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)

Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles

Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb

Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p

Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined

Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market

Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%

Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users

Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended

Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_

Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council

Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators

Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council

Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund

Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it

Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).

add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council

Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil

Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come

Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined

ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)

ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council

DUPLICATE - NA

ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.

ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)

ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered

ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)

ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)

ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals

Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event

Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)

Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council

Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze

Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)

Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible

Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.

Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it

Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana

Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council

Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024

Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot

Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb

Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse

Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)

Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)

Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate

Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly

Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council

Ernie

Joshua

Chris/Strutheo

Jensen Huang

Sundar Pichai

Larry Page

Sergey Brin

Bill Gates

Bram Cohen

Vitalik Buterin

Demis Hassabis

Lex Fridman

Xi Jinping

Kim Jong Un

Jeff Dean

Isaac King

Geoffrey Hinton

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Ilya Sutskever

Austin (manifold)

Glenn Shotwell

Emad Mostaque

Greg Brockman

Bruce Schneier

AGM (chaos monkey)

Kind Edward

Patrick Collison

Balaji

Stewart Butterfeld

Prince Harry

Tim Sweeney

Peter Thiel

Garry Tan

Jessica Livingston

Andrew Ng

Robin Hanson

Trump

Dwarkesh Patel

Marc Andreesen

Larry Ellison

Grimes

Patrick McKenzie

Travis Kalanick

Lionel Messi

James (manifold)

Biden

Mark Zuckerberg

JK Rowling

Meghan Markle

Gavin Newsom

Prince William

Jack Dorsey

Martin Shkreli

Tyler Cowen

Oprah Winfrey

Paul Graham

Beff Jezos

Tim Ferriss

Elon Musk

Satya Nadella

Taylor Swift

Sam Altman

Joe Rogan

[Uno-X] 4 or more WorldTour victories

[Decathlon] 6 or more WorldTour victories

[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

[Alpecin] Jasper Philipsen wins Gent-Wevelgem

[Visma] Sepp Kuss finishes better than Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France

[Visma] Wilco Kelderman wins a race

[Lidl-Trek] Do not podium any Grand Tour GC

[Decathlon] Top 6 in the UCI rankings in 2026

[UAE] 40 or more WorldTour victories

[FDJ-Suez] Demi Vollering scores the most UCI points of any woman in 2026

[Lotto-Intermarche] 13 or more victories (.1 or higher)

[Uno-X] Do not finish in the top 10 of any Grand Tour GC

[Lidl-Trek] Mattias Skjelmose leaves the team before the end of 2026

[Ineos] Sam Welsford wins 4 times as many races (or more) as Arne Marit

[Soudal-Quickstep] 15 or more WorldTour victories

[Lotto-Intermarche] 4 or more WorldTour victories

[Red Bull-BORA] Finish on the podium in GC in all three Grand Tours

[Decathlon] Olav Kooij wins 4 or more WorldTour races

[Decathlon] Paul Seixas wins Il Lombardia

[Uno-X] Jonas Abrahamsen wins 2 or more Grand Tour stages

[Visma] Matthew Brennan wins 3 Vuelta stages + the green jersey

[Red Bull-BORA] 15 or more WorldTour victories

[Ineos] Joshua Tarling wins more time trials than Remco Evenepoel

[Lidl-Trek] 3rd in UCI points for the 2026 season

[Lidl-Trek] Juan Ayuso podiums the Vuelta a España GC

[Lidl-Trek] 23 or more WorldTour victories

[NSN] Biniam Girmay wins a 1.UWT race

[Uno-X] Johannes Kulset scores 1000 or more UCI points

[Ineos] Egan Bernal and Brandon Rivera sign with Movistar before EOY 2026

[UAE] Antonio Morgado podiums a 1.UWT classic race

[Uno-X] Adne Holter scores 1000 or more UCI points

[Visma] A French rider on Visma wins a WorldTour stage race GC

[Red Bull-BORA] Laurence Pithie podiums a Monument

[Red Bull-BORA] Florian Lipowitz places better than Remco Evenepoel at the Tour de France

[Lidl-Trek] Mathias Vacek wins a cobbled classic

[Lidl-Trek] Mads Pedersen does not win a WorldTour race

[Decathlon] Paul Seixas podiums the Giro d'Italia

[Decathlon] Win a stage in all three Grand Tours

[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins a Giro d'Italia stage

[Soudal-Quickstep] Gianmarco Garofoli wins the King of the Mountains at the Giro d'Italia

[Soudal-Quickstep] Ilan van Wilder has a better average finishing position than Remco Evenepoel in the Ardennes classics (Amstel, Fleche, LBL)

[Alpecin] Win the points classification in two Grand Tours

[UAE] Tadej Pogacar wins all five Monuments

[NSN] Corbin Strong podiums Liege-Bastogne-Liege

[Visma] Bruno Armirail wins a Tour de France stage

[Visma] Timo Kielich finishes in the top 5 at Paris-Roubaix

@semioticrivalry

Other

@jacksonpolack

@jim

@AmmonLam

@Bayesian

@Joshua

@MarcusAbramovitch

@musuko384

@121

@evan

@Krantz

Tumbles

@firstuserhere

@sanghyeonSeo

When Manifold go defunct, Kalshi will still be running

When Manifold go defunct, Polymarket will still be running

When Manifold go defunct, Twitter (X) will still be running

Before the end of 2100

When Manifold go defunct, real money betting on elections outcomes are legal in the US

A month before Manifold go defunct, Joshua will still be active

A month before Manifold go defunct, James will still be the CEO

Before the end of 2050

Before the end of 2040

Before the end of 2035

Before the end of 2030

Before the end of 2029

Before the end of 2028

Before the end of 2027

Before the end of 2026

Before the end of 2025

@SG (Stephen Grugett)

@Conflux

@Gen

@Austin

@SirSalty (David Chee)

Marshall Polaris

Other

@JamesGrugett

@ian

@Sinclair

@Joshua

Other

Tripping

Joshua

Tomek

Franklin Baldo

Conflux

Plasma Ballin

eburk

Ammon Lam

Jack

memestiny

Isaac King

Snazzlepop

Richard Hanania

CateHall

Niko

tjohnson314

Data Chef

BTE

Tumbles

Predictor

Bayesian

Jackson Polack

Nick Cannon

Elon Musk