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Top stories

Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees

Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees

Authors

7

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Judge

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

3.66%chance

128481329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5129

195

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.43%chance

207725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7901

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

73.39%chance

387268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1661

602

Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2032?

Apr 5, 4:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.71%chance

463532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

903

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.82%chance

371628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

943

Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?

May 22, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.98%chance

91594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will a work created by AI have been judged as an infinging work by 2030, in the US Court system.

Sep 2, 10:38 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

86.7%chance

14433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

963

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?

Feb 23, 1:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

17.99%chance

10222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

957

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
MLB
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Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees
Authors
7
7 months ago

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