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Top stories

Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees

Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees

Authors

7

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Judge

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10838

9495

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.59%chance

17476866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19402

2677

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

39.19%chance

207525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12457

8028

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

73.93%chance

377145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1684

594

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.93%chance

361608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

959

Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?

May 22, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.35%chance

91586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

916

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Will officials determine that the Oct 4, 2025 fire at Judge Diane Goodstein’s home was intentionally set (arson)?

Oct 24, 1:16 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

52.69%chance

5228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

948

Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?

Feb 23, 1:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

17.99%chance

10222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

957

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
MLB
Sports
Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees
Authors
7
4 months ago

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