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Top stories

Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees

Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees

Authors

7

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Judge

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?

Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

10%chance

130486806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.56%chance

237773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12623

7922

Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?

Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

78.06%chance

397543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1886

530

If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?

Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.66%chance

251949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

936

Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?

May 22, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.45%chance

121726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

896

Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?

Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.82%chance

371628

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

943

Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?

Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.68%chance

14516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

963

Will a work created by AI have been judged as an infinging work by 2030, in the US Court system.

Sep 2, 10:38 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

86.7%chance

14433

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

963

Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?

Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.42%chance

5410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1210

826

In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?

Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

35%chance

10338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

995

Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?

Feb 23, 1:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

17.99%chance

10222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

957

If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will the Senate confirm at least 40 federal judges in the 120th Congress?

Oct 7, 2:54 AMJan 3, 5:00 PM

66.69%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

974

Latest stories

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
MLB
Sports
Judge, Stanton and Bellinger Smash Three Straight Homers to Ignite Yankees
Authors
7
1 year ago

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