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Prediction markets for Judge
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Nov 9, 7:16 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM
3.5%chance
128483207
OptionVotes
5251
190
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM
38.42%chance
227750
OptionVotes
12660
7899
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
73.39%chance
387268
OptionVotes
1661
602
Will the contaminant hypothesis of modern obesity be judged true by expert consensus before 2032?
Apr 5, 4:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
7.71%chance
463532
OptionVotes
1426
903
If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?
Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.66%chance
251949
OptionVotes
1129
936
Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?
Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
55.82%chance
371628
OptionVotes
1061
943
Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
May 22, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.98%chance
91594
OptionVotes
1083
923
Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?
Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.68%chance
14516
OptionVotes
1056
963
Will a work created by AI have been judged as an infinging work by 2030, in the US Court system.
Sep 2, 10:38 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM
86.7%chance
14433
OptionVotes
1104
963
Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?
Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM
59.42%chance
5410
OptionVotes
1210
826
In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?
Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
35%chance
10338
OptionVotes
999
995
Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?
Feb 23, 1:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
17.99%chance
10222
OptionVotes
1110
957
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