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Prediction markets for Judge
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.1%chance
194280263
OptionVotes
10838
9495
If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?
Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.59%chance
17476866
OptionVotes
19402
2677
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM
39.19%chance
207525
OptionVotes
12457
8028
Will prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most damaging term in the last 68 years?
Jan 8, 4:43 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
73.93%chance
377145
OptionVotes
1684
594
If someone launches a competitor to Manifold, will I judge it to have been at least as successful two years later?
Oct 21, 5:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.66%chance
251949
OptionVotes
1129
936
Will Scott Alexander judge a specific candidate movie to resolve his 2028 AI movie market?
Dec 11, 12:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
54.93%chance
361608
OptionVotes
1041
959
Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
May 22, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.35%chance
91586
OptionVotes
1091
916
Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?
Mar 10, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.68%chance
14516
OptionVotes
1056
963
Will Donald Trump get more judges appointed in his second term than his first?
Nov 7, 2:42 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM
59.42%chance
5410
OptionVotes
1210
826
In 2028, will I use a chatbot that can win >25% of Turing test games (defined within) where I am the judge?
Mar 9, 7:59 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
35%chance
10338
OptionVotes
999
995
Will officials determine that the Oct 4, 2025 fire at Judge Diane Goodstein’s home was intentionally set (arson)?
Oct 24, 1:16 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
52.69%chance
5228
OptionVotes
1055
948
Contingent on Trump winning the election, will any of the DAs or judges currently trying him go to jail?
Feb 23, 1:11 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
17.99%chance
10222
OptionVotes
1110
957
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