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Julian News

    Prediction markets for Julian

    Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

    Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM
    345343621

    OptionProbability

    Hong Wang

    Jacob Tsimerman

    Jack Thorne

    John Pardon

    Other

    Will Sawin

    Maria Colombo

    Yu Deng

    Julian Sahasrabudhe

    Sam Raskin

    Vesselin Dimitrov

    Yibo Gao

    Tasuki Kinjo

    Junliang Shen

    Javier Fresan

    Maksym Radziwill

    Karim Adiprasito

    Song Sun

    Tatenda Kubalalika

    Elia Bruè

    Aleksandr Logunov

    Amol Aggarwal

    Akhil Mathew

    Ashwin Sah

    Alexander Efimov

    Simion Filip

    Jeremy Hahn

    Lisa Sauermann

    Dennis Gaitsgory

    (duplicate, will resolve no)

    Xian-Jin Li

    Mike Wolf

    Joseph Palmer

    A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

    Jacob Braunschweig

    Miguel Walsh

    Igor Rodnianski

    Hannah Larson

    Justin Fields

    Frederick Manners

    Yuansi Chen

    Tom Hutchcroft

    yunqing tang

    Noé Cruchet

    Vincent Tassion

    Tony Yu

    David Budden

    Ziyang Gao

    Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

    Daniel Restrepo

    Matteo Verni

    23

    21

    16

    9

    8

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    J. D. Vance

    Gavin Newsom

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Marco Rubio

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Josh Hawley

    Jon Ossoff

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Mark Kelly

    KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

    Glenn Youngkin

    Andy Beshear

    Kamala Harris

    Ron DeSantis

    Wes Moore

    Nikki Haley

    Elise Stefanik

    Mark Cuban

    Stephen Miller

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    J. B. Pritzker

    Cory Booker

    Raphael Warnock

    Gina Raimondo

    Ro Khanna

    Chris Murphy

    Tammy Duckworth

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Chris Sununu

    Jeff Jackson

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Tim Scott

    Brian Kemp

    Kristi Noem

    Beto O'Rourke

    John Fetterman

    Tom Cotton

    Brian Schatz

    Joni Ernst

    Michael Bennet

    Tammy Baldwin

    Kevin Stitt

    Josh Green

    Tina Kotek

    Ted Cruz

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Joe Rogan

    Jay Inslee

    Deval Patrick

    Eric Swalwell

    Wayne Messam

    Jared Polis

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Julian Castro

    Dean Phillips

    Katie Britt

    Laphonza Butler

    Eric Schmitt

    Mike Lee

    Catherine Cortez Masto

    Chris Coons

    Tim Kaine

    Lisa Murkowski

    Katie Hobbs

    Spencer Cox

    Tate Reeves

    Ruben Gallego

    Erika Kirk

    James Donaldson (MrBeast)

    Tucker Carlson

    Will Hurd

    Dan Crenshaw

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    Amy Klobuchar

    Andrew Yang

    Stephen Colbert

    Stephen Curry

    Markwayne Mullin

    Rand Paul

    Joe Manchin

    Maura Healey

    Ivanka Trump

    David Hogg

    Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

    Taylor Swift

    Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

    Matt Gaetz

    Marianne Williamson

    Ezra Klein

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Mike Pence

    Jon Stewart

    DUPLICATE

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Aella

    Scott Alexander

    Sam Altman

    Zendaya

    Michelle Obama

    Kanye West

    Mitt Romney

    Sarah Palin

    Ben Shapiro

    Bernie Sanders

    Hillary Clinton

    Tim Walz

    Al Gore

    Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

    Me

    Krantz (the user @Krantz)

    41

    22

    18

    17

    16

    13

    13

    11

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Avi Lewis

    Heather McPherson

    Other

    Ruth Ellen Brosseau

    Valérie Plante

    Leah Gazan

    Don Davies

    Jenny Kwan

    Rob Ashton

    Tony McQuail

    Niki Ashton

    Charlie Angus

    Peter Julian

    Rachel Notley

    John Horgan

    Matthew Green

    Wab Kinew

    Alexandre Boulerice

    Nathan Cullen

    Yves Engler

    Tanille Johnston

    84

    6

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

    MSF / Doctors without Borders

    Donald Trump

    Yulia Navalnaya

    International Court of Justice

    Narges Mohammadi

    Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Greta Thunberg

    duplicate - international Court of Justice

    UNESCO

    Philippe Lazzarini

    Joe Biden

    UNRWA

    Alexei Navalny

    Kyaw Moe Tun

    José Andrés

    World Uyghur Congress

    Maria Corina Machado

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights

    Timnit Gebru

    Elon Musk

    NATO

    Netanyahu

    JD Vance

    AOC

    Antonio Guterres

    Julian Assange

    David Attenborough

    Pope Francis

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Keir Starmer

    European Union

    Ilham Tohti

    Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

    Jacinda Ardern

    Raoni Metuktire

    José Andrés

    Loujain al-Hathloul

    Ilwad Elman

    Wa Lone

    Narendra Modi

    Yvonne Ridley

    Hajer Sharief

    Alexis Tsipras

    Isaias Afwerki

    Nathan Law

    Agnes Chow

    Filippo Grandi

    Yuan Longping

    Mahbouba Seraj

    Victoria Tauli-Corpuz

    Juan Carlos Jintiach

    Joshua Wong

    Ernest Moniz

    DOGE

    Kamala Harris

    Noam Chomsky

    International Fact-Checking Network

    Manifold Markets

    Justin Trudeau

    Vladimir Putin

    Aleksandr Lukashenko

    Sam Altman

    Bill Gates / Gates Foundation

    Kim Jong Un

    Abdullah Öcalan

    Daniel Sheehan

    Robert Kennedy Jr

    @Krantz

    Gustavo Petro

    The Iranian protesters

    Peacekeepers

    Jimmy Lai

    Francesca Albanese

    Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue

    64

    12

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Hunter Biden

    Enrique Tarrio

    Joe Biggs

    Stewart Rhodes

    Kelly Meggs

    Ethan Nordean

    Dominic Pezzola

    George Santos

    Donald Trump

    Sean 'Diddy' Combs

    Ghislane Maxwell

    Chelsea Manning

    Edward Snowden

    Joe Exotic

    Tay-K

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Derek Chauvin

    Julian Assange

    Levi Finkelstein

    Elizabeth Holmes

    R. Kelly

    @Mira

    Harvey Weinstein

    Joe Biden

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    97

    68

    66

    40

    39

    34

    34

    27

    20

    20

    19

    16

    12

    9

    5

    3

    2

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4624

    370

    OptionProbability

    Christian Pulisic

    Folarin Balogun

    Chris Richards

    Weston McKennie

    Matt Freese

    Antonee Robinson

    Malik Tillman

    Tyler Adams

    Sergiño Dest

    Diego Luna

    Alex Freeman

    Timothy Weah

    Tanner Tessmann

    Matt Turner

    Haji Wright

    Gio Reyna

    Miles Robinson

    Brenden Aaronson

    Mark McKenzie

    Tim Ream

    Joe Scally

    Aidan Morris

    Johnny Cardoso

    Max Arfsten

    Patrick Schulte

    Cameron Carter-Vickers

    Ricardo Pepi

    Cristian Roldan

    Roman Celentano

    Auston Trusty

    Sean Zawadzki

    Jack McGlynn

    John Tolkin

    Timmy Tillman

    Sebastian Berhalter

    Patrick Agyemang

    Alejandro Zendejas

    Quinn Sullivan

    Josh Sargent

    Zack Steffen

    Paxten Aaronson

    Djordje Mihailovic

    Kellyn Acosta

    Yunus Musah

    Jordan Morris

    Paul Arriola

    Kristoffer Lund

    Walker Zimmerman

    Tristan Blackmon

    Drake Callender

    Brian White

    Marlon Fossey

    Luca de la Torre

    Jesús Ferreira

    Brandon Vázquez

    Sean Johnson

    Shaq Moore

    Daryl Dike

    Cade Cowell

    Emmanuel Sabbi

    Mauricio Cuevas

    James Sands

    Ethan Horvath

    Damion Downs

    Jonathan Klinsmann

    Lucho Acosta

    Taha Habroune

    DeAndre Yedlin

    Julian Gressel

    96

    89

    86

    85

    84

    83

    81

    79

    77

    75

    74

    71

    71

    70

    69

    68

    59

    58

    56

    56

    54

    53

    52

    52

    50

    49

    47

    45

    45

    43

    34

    32

    31

    28

    28

    26

    25

    24

    23

    22

    22

    21

    18

    17

    15

    15

    13

    12

    11

    10

    10

    9

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    4

    4

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Kairo Smith-Phillips

    Cavan Sullivan

    Astin Mbaye

    Da’vian Kimbrough

    Manu Romero

    Diego Kochen

    Maximo Carrizo

    Julian Hall

    23

    20

    18

    18

    13

    3

    3

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1339

    903

    Will Julian Assange die on American soil?

    May 2, 5:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    4.97%chance
    4361

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    437

    23

    Will Julian Assange still be alive at the beginning of 2030?

    Jan 30, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    62.42%chance
    10284

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    162

    84

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    163

    60

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