Kash Patel News

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

20-27 years old

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

White

Born in the United States

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

Native English speaker (L1)

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Is named Tyler Robinson

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

Resided in the same state as the incident

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Is a registered voter

Did it on purpose

Skinny

Gamer

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Motivated primarily by political ideology

ectomorph body type

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Is left wing

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

Hunter

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Will plead guilty

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Unemployed

iphone user

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Not a virgin

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

has a furaffinity account

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Furry

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Strongly opposes zionism

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

n/a

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

Is sentenced to death

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Will kill again (including suicide)

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has a Bluesky account

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

White cis-hetero Christian man

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Has ADHD

psychedelics user

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Was on an FBI watchlist

6 ft tall

Had diagnosed mental illness

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Transgender

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Incel

Fan fiction author

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

Escapes carceral detention

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

History of domestic violence

has significant student load debt

Owned the firearm used

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Left-handed

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

groyper

Is right wing

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Was a student at UVU

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

White Nationalist

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Participates in this market

Teenager

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Is or was a computer science student

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

Indian national

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

Pope Leo XIV

Donald Trump

Zohran Mamdani

Jensen Huang

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Benjamin Netanyahu

Ahmed Al-Sharaa

Elon Musk

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Charlie Kirk

Sam Altman

Jerome Powell

Taylor Swift

Nicolas Maduro

Mark Carney

Xi Jinping

Nayib Bukele

Sanae Takaichi

Lee Jae Myung

Sundar Pichai

Gisèle Pelicot

Vladimir Putin

Demis Hassabis

Narendra Modi

Marco Rubio

Kilmar Abrego Garcia

J.D. Vance

Keir Starmer

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Sushila Karki

Mohammed bin Salman

Jimmy Kimmel

Peter Thiel

Brendan Foody

Surya Midha

Satya Nadella

Dario Amodei

Nick Fuentes

Larry Page

Antonio Guterres

Pam Bondi

Kim Jong Un

Steve Witkoff

Ms. Rachel

Scott Bessent

Bad Bunny

Imran Khan

Jane Goodall

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Stephen Miller

Pete Hegseth

Tim Cook

Jeff Bezos

Emmanuel Macron

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Jimmy Donaldson

Adarsh Hiremath

Mark Zuckerberg

Mike Johnson

Jeffrey Epstein

Kash Patel

Sydney Sweeney

Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo

Ursula von der Leyen

Dana White

Howard Lutnick

Maverick Trevillian

Kamala Harris

Stephen Colbert

Lei Jun (CEO Xiaomi)

Nasry Asfura

Mahmoud Khalil

Larry Ellison

Greta Thunberg

Kendrick Lamar

Javier Milei

Tucker Carlson

David Ellison

RFK Jr.

Marco Rubio

Doug Burgum

Tulsi Gabbard

Mike Waltz

Lee Zeldin

Kristi Noem

Scott Bessent

John Ratcliffe

Pete Hegseth

Linda McMahon

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Brooke Rollins

Sean Duffy

Pam Bondi

[DUPLICATE - RESOLVES N/A]

Scott Perry

Tim Scott

Balaji

Jeffrey Clark

Mark Meadows

Tom Cotton

Mike Rogers

Dr. Joseph Ladapo

Stephen Miller

Steve Mnuchin

Rick Scott

Byron Daniels

Ken Paxton

Bobby Jindal

Brandon Williams

Ron DeSantis

Betsy DeVos

Garret Graves

Sam Brown

Ben Carson

Vivek Ramaswamy

Mike Flynn

Mike Pompeo

Tom Homan

Kash Patel

Mike Huckabee

Eric Adams

Mike Lindell

Elon Musk

Elise Stefanik

Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

Evan permabanned from Manifold

Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

Charlie Kirk dies

Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

South Park does an episode that alludes to it

Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

Another political assassination (either side)

event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

"Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

arson attack against gender clinic

BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

80s-style moral panic over furries

Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

Information reward money paid

high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

At least one furry convention canceled

Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

TPUSA supports a gun control bill

Any Democratic politician is arrested

5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

Any news organization is shut down

Any left-wing NGO is shut down

South Park canceled

NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

"Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

Kash Patel fired

At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

America becomes a one-party GOP state.

5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations:

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

President: Donald Trump

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

YES

NO

Kash Patel

NO

YES

NO