OptionProbability
Other
JD Vance
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Gavin Newsom
Pete Buttigieg
Ron DeSantis
Kamala Harris
Josh Shapiro
Tucker Carlson
Donald Trump
Gretchen Whitmer
Andy Beshear
JB Pritzker
Nikki Haley
Mark Kelly
Donald Trump Jr.
Mark Cuban
Ruben Gallego
None
Vivek Ramaswamy
Joe Biden
Tim Scott
Katie Hobbs
Greg Abbott
Elizabeth Warren
Mike Johnson
Ted Cruz
Mike Pence
Jared Polis
Michelle Obama
Ivanka Trump
Elon Musk
Sam Altman
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson
Elise Stefanik
Kristi Noem
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Nicole Shanahan
Tulsi Gabbard
Scott Alexander
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Jamie Dimon
George Clooney
Tom Hanks
Steven Pinker
Patrick Stewart
George R R Martin
Noah Smith
Matt Yglesias
Kanye West
Doug Burgum
Jeff Jackson
Glenn Youngkin
Tim Walz
John Fetterman
Barack Obama
Oprah Winfrey
Hillary Clinton
Joe Rogan
Ro Khanna
43
14
10
8
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Pete Buttigieg
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Gretchen Whitmer
Jon Ossoff
Josh Hawley
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
Tucker Carlson
Andy Beshear
Kamala Harris
Marco Rubio
J. B. Pritzker
Mark Kelly
James Talarico
Ron DeSantis
Elise Stefanik
Wes Moore
Stephen Miller
Nikki Haley
Vivek Ramaswamy
Raphael Warnock
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Chris Sununu
Jeff Jackson
Donald Trump Jr.
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Sam Altman
Tim Scott
Brian Kemp
Kristi Noem
Cory Booker
Beto O'Rourke
John Fetterman
Mark Zuckerberg
Tom Cotton
Brian Schatz
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Tammy Baldwin
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Ted Cruz
Tulsi Gabbard
Joe Rogan
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Jared Polis
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Catherine Cortez Masto
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Katie Hobbs
Spencer Cox
Tate Reeves
Ruben Gallego
Mark Cuban
Erika Kirk
Will Hurd
Dan Crenshaw
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang
Ezra Klein
Stephen Colbert
Stephen Curry
Markwayne Mullin
Rand Paul
Joe Manchin
Kevin Stitt
Maura Healey
Ivanka Trump
David Hogg
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Marianne Williamson
Mike Pence
Jon Stewart
DUPLICATE
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Tim Walz
Al Gore
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
35
18
18
15
13
12
12
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department
Flag desecration prohibition passed
Any vaccines banned for any group of people
J6er pardoned
Sports team invited to the white house
A member of Congress is censured or expelled
The democrats take control of the house of representatives
Significant Rogue AI Incident
Blue wave in 2026 midterm elections
Democrats win Iowa governorship
Republicans lose the house majority in midterms
James Talarico wins Texas senate election
Rob Sand wins 2026 Iowa governor election
Katie Hobbs win 2026 Arizona governor election
@DudleyDOODOO creates over 80 options for this market
Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults
Democrats win the early voting race game and win the midterms
Democracy survives
Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently
Mass Deportations
Trump is impeached
A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch
Democrats win back the white house in 2028
Giorgia Meloni wins reelection prime minister
Left-wing CPAC alternative launches
RFK Jr impeached
Suffer a fall in public
Nicolas Maduro prosecuted and imprisoned for life
Chuck Grassley dies
Peter Hotez goes to prison
Convergence Magazine (Organizing Upgrade) shut down and cease to exist
@dudleyDOODO creates over 50 options that are either illogical, incomprehensible or too vague to resolve
Another project 2025 launched by Heritage Foundation for GOP 2029 presidency
All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist
Drone strike in Mexico by US
Nuclear weapon detonation
AGI achieved
US punitive expedition in Mexico
Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary
A second pope is elected
Republicans win the white house in 2028
Deep funding cuts to NIH, NSF, FDA, CDC, HHS, EPA fully implemented and becomes law
Democrats win trifecta in 2026 midterms
100k humanoid robots manufactured
All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all AI technologies and generative ai to defunct and cease to exist
Reiner Fuellmich released from prison
350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates
Another covid-like pandemic
NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS, NSF abolished permanently
Bell tower added at the US Capitol
Pauline Hanson becomes Australia prime minister
Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 occurs and becomes reality
Science and public health infrastructures dies
All COVID-19 vaccines pulled off market entirely
Abolish vaccine funding entirely permanently
Zach Lahn wins Iowa 2026 governor election
Alice Weidel becomes German chancellor
Climate change infrastructures abolished permanently
MAGA and Trump challenge 2026 midterm GOP losses
A human walks on the Moon
Joe Exotic is released from prison
Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics becomes reality and occurs
Patriots for Europe controls European parliament and wins majority
It ends with JD Vance becoming president
Antifa dissolves
Post-WW2 international orders die and abolished
AfD controls chancellorship and AfD becomes chancellor
Mark Carney wins 2029 Canada election
Vaccine research and projects permanently abolished
NASA abolished
US captures Daniel Ortega and all other leftist leaders worldwide
Europe of Sovereign Nations controls European parliament and wins majority
Measles vaccines abolished and pulled off market
Adam Schiff goes to prison
Chris Whitty goes to prison
European countries all under far-right regime control
Steve Bannon runs for 2028 president
Probabilistic forecasting dies, extinct, defunct, and cease to exist
Fauci and other scientist experts go to prison
Actblue shut down and cease to exist
All prediction markets defunct and cease to exist permanently
World war 3 and global war launch
Metaculus shut down and cease to exist
Room temperature superconductor discovered
Elon Musk is arrested for treason
China invades Taiwan
US military intervention on Canadian territory
Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Perplexity defunct and cease to exist
Latin American countries all under far-right regime control
Ilhan Omar deported
Soros family goes to prison
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason
Coup attempt in the United States
All in person comic con events get cancelled throughout 2020s
Republicans leads in early and mail in voting in midterms
Roberto Vannacci becomes Italy prime minister
Hillary Clinton goes to prison
All international NGOs defunct and cease to exist
Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory overturned and tilted to Bolsonaro
Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)
Republicans win control of the house
All type of vaccines abolished and pulled off market
Fauci goes to prison
Manifold market shut down and cease to exist
US withdraws from United Nations
Viktor Orban returns as prime minister
GOP, Trump, and MAGA controls all election infrastructures away from state governments
Russia invades all European countries
Barack Obama goes to prison
Nigel Farage becomes UK prime minister
Abolish global health funding and infrastructures
Abolish global vaccine funding and vaccine infrastructures permanently
Mass imprisonment of scientists, public health officials, pandemic officials and others worldwide
Far-right seizes all American universities nationwide
Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts generative AI and all AI technology
Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts all prediction markets
Anti-AI movement abolishes and defuncts all AI technologies and infrastructures
The Senate eliminates the filibuster
Largest solar flare since Carrington Event
Democracy dies
All left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down
World Health Organization dissolved and abolished
Far-right seizes all American institutions
All US citizens arrested, detained, and targeted by ICE
Nuclear war
Reform UK wins UK 2029 election
World becomes global far-right regime
Russia invades all NATO countries
Bill Gates goes to prison
All media under right-wing control
North Korea bombs and invades South Korea
Elon Musk buys the 2026 midterm elections
US captures Lula and removes him from office
Supreme Court packing
22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms
Donald Trump reelected President
United States and the world becomes totalitarian dictatorship
All federal and state judges impeached
All Democrats imprisoned
Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China bombs US mainland
Rupert Lowe becomes UK prime minister
Human extinction
US buys Greenland and becomes 52nd state
Democrats permanently locked out of power
Democrats lose the house in 2026 midterm election
All scientists, doctors, pandemic experts, and all other public health officials go to prison
Eagles three-peat
2026 midterm election gets stolen by Trump and GOP and tilted in ruling party's favor
Abolish elections permanently
Russia invades all continents and controls the world globally
All Trump opponents go to prison
Canada becomes 51st state
Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran invades US mainland
Republicans win the early voting race game and win the midterms
Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms
Abortion permanently banned nationwide and worldwide
End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days
Red wave in 2026 midterm elections
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
99
99
98
96
95
94
91
73
73
71
63
60
58
50
46
44
44
42
35
34
30
29
28
27
25
25
24
24
24
23
23
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
18
17
17
17
17
17
15
15
14
14
14
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
J.B. Pritzker
Gavin Newsom
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Pete Buttigieg
Jon Ossoff
Josh Shapiro
Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Gretchen Whitmer
Amy Klobuchar
Chris Murphy
Raphael Warnock
Deval Patrick
Gina Raimondo
J. B. Pritzker
Steve Bullock
Mark Kelly
Andy Beshear
Ro Khanna
Maura Healey
Chris Coons
Jeff Jackson
Catherine Cortez Masto
Katie Hobbs
Tim Walz
Tina Kotek
Abigail Spanberger
Michael Bennet
Julián Castro
Beto O'Rourke
Bill de Blasio
Jay Inslee
Jared Polis
Roy Cooper
Martin O'Malley
Cornel West
Tom Steyer
Wayne Messam
Kirsten Gillibrand
Mitch Landrieu
Tammy Duckworth
Tammy Baldwin
Tim Kaine
Marianne Williamson
Eric Swalwell
Wes Moore
John Fetterman
Dean Phillips
Michelle Obama
Laphonza Butler
Tulsi Gabbard
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II
66
50
42
33
30
25
23
18
16
10
9
9
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jamie Dimon
J. D. Vance
Kamala Harris
Ted Cruz
Gavin Newsom
Tulsi Gabbard
Cory Booker
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Gretchen Whitmer
Pete Buttigieg
Tim Scott
J. B. Pritzker
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Elise Stefanik
Josh Shapiro
Mike Pence
Kristi Noem
Andy Beshear
Spencer Cox
Glenn Youngkin
Ro Khanna
Marco Rubio
Jackson Hinkle
Dean Phillips
Donald Trump
Elon Musk
Aella
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Xi Jinping
Tammy Duckworth
Ivanka Trump
Mike Johnson
Tucker Carlson
Mark Zuckerberg
An AGI
Jared Kushner
Zvi Mowshowitz
Curtis Yarvin
Mike Dunleavy
Katie Hobbs
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Jared Polis
Brian Kemp
Scott Perry
Joe Biden
Josh Green
Eric Holcomb
Kim Reynolds
Jeff Landry
Wes Moore
Maura Healey
Tim Walz
Tate Reeves
Mike Parson
Greg Gianforte
Christopher Sununu
Jim Pillen
Joe Lombardo
Phil Murphy
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Kathy Hochul
Roy Cooper
Doug Burgum
Kevin Stitt
Tina Kotek
Bill Lee
Greg Abbott
Phil Scott
Mark Gordon
Tammy Baldwin
Taylor Swift
Josh Hawley
Raphael Warnock
Luigi Mangione
Chuck Norris
Robert Francis Prevost
57
5
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Kamala Harris
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Ivanka Trump
Gretchen Whitmer
Nikki Haley
Stacey Abrams
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Kristi Noem
Anna Paulina Luna
Krystal Ball
Carly Fiorina
Michelle Obama
Katie Porter
Elizabeth Warren
Tammy Baldwin
Tammy Duckworth
Oprah Winfrey
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Ayanna Pressley
Joni Ernst
Tina Kotek
Katie Hobbs
Barbara Lee
Young Kim
Lucy McBath
Cori Bush
Deb Haaland
Hillary Clinton
Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex
77
6
4
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
At least 1
At least 2
At least 3
At least 4
At least 5
At least 6
0
At least 7
At least 8
At least 9
At least 10
90
79
57
36
25
12
11
10
8
7
5


