Karrin Taylor Robson holds an early advantage in Arizona’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, according to a Noble Predictive Insights survey taken Aug. 11–18. The poll of 385 registered Republican voters shows Robson at 37% support, 10 points ahead of Representative Andy Biggs at 27%, with 36% undecided. In potential general-election pairings drawn from the same poll of 948 registered voters, Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs leads Robson 40% to 38% and edges Biggs 39% to 37%. Third-party preference stands at 4% in each scenario, while 19% of voters remain undecided, underscoring the race’s volatility. Noble Predictive notes that Robson, who has secured former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, is outperforming Biggs among voters aged 65 and older and maintains a slight edge even among self-identified “Trump-first” Republicans. The firm says Robson’s ability to appeal to both party traditionalists and Trump loyalists could be pivotal as the field firms up ahead of next year’s primary. The online, opt-in poll carries a margin of error of ±3.18 percentage points for the full sample and ±4.99 points for the Republican subsample.