OptionProbability
Other
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)
Zohran Mamdani
Elon Musk
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)
Xi Jinping
Marco Rubio
James Talarico
Sam Altman
Vladimir Putin
Benjamin Netanyahu
Dario Amodei
Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)
Graham Platner
Jon Ossoff
Bad Bunny
Pete Hegseth
Gavin Newsom
AOC
Jerome Powell
Sydney Sweeney
Demis Hassabis
Larry Ellison
Jensen Huang
Gen Z
Jeffrey Epstein
Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )
Nicholas Maduro
Mark Zuckerberg
Lisa Su
Fei-Fei Li
Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)
Millenials
Gen X
Baby Boomers
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Scott Bessent
Sundar Pichai
Narendra Modi
Ursula von der Leyen
Jasmine Crockett
Kevin Hassett
Gen Alpha
Claudia Sheinbaum
Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)
Ahmed al-Sharaa
Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]
Kevin Warsh
25
13
13
11
10
9
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Pete Buttigieg
Marco Rubio
Josh Hawley
Gretchen Whitmer
Jon Ossoff
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
Andy Beshear
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
Mark Kelly
Wes Moore
Stephen Miller
Nikki Haley
Vivek Ramaswamy
Elise Stefanik
J. B. Pritzker
Cory Booker
Raphael Warnock
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Chris Sununu
Mark Cuban
Donald Trump Jr.
Sam Altman
Tim Scott
Brian Kemp
Kristi Noem
Beto O'Rourke
John Fetterman
Mark Zuckerberg
Tom Cotton
Brian Schatz
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Tammy Baldwin
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Kevin Stitt
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Jeff Jackson
Ted Cruz
Tulsi Gabbard
Joe Rogan
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Jared Polis
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Catherine Cortez Masto
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Katie Hobbs
Spencer Cox
Tate Reeves
Ruben Gallego
Erika Kirk
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Tucker Carlson
Will Hurd
Dan Crenshaw
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang
Stephen Colbert
Stephen Curry
Markwayne Mullin
Rand Paul
Joe Manchin
Maura Healey
Ivanka Trump
David Hogg
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mike Pence
Jon Stewart
DUPLICATE
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Tim Walz
Al Gore
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
44
22
18
17
15
13
12
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Hakeem Jeffries
Other
Steve Scalise
Tom Emmer
Jim Jordan
Patrick McHenry
Kevin McCarthy
Elise Stefanik
Kevin Hern
Tom Cole
Elon Musk
84
12
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Joey Graziadei
Sutton Stracke
Cris Judd
Parvati Shallow
Anna Gasteyer
Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)
Jinx Monsoon
Tom Sandoval
Suze Orman
Paris Hilton
Ronan Farrow
Walton Goggins
Luann de Lesseps
Zach King
Cole Escola
Luke Wilson
Marc Maron
Adam DeVine
Drew Barrymore
Jools Lebron
Elle King
Lynne Spears
Emma Chamberlain
Justine Bateman
Denise Richards
Camille Grammar
Scheana Shay
Michael Rapaport
Mike White
Sarah Silverman
Beanie Feldstein
Nicole Richie
Dita Von Teese
Jennifer Tilly
Jessica Gunning
Adam Lambert
Mira Sorvino
Danielle Brooks
Meg Tilly
Jason Bateman
Julie Chrisley
Daniel Stern
Drake Bell
Dixie D'Amelio
Jeanette McCurdy
Andrea Martin
Billy Bob Thornton
Andy Cohen
Christina Hendricks
Bowen Yang
Noah Cyrus
Raven Simone
Jean Smart
Kelly Ripa
Noah Schnapp
Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"
Jussie Smollett
Mel Gibson
Jodie Foster
Dolly Parton
Savannah Chrisley
Mia Farrow
Owen Wilson
Victoria Beckham
Nancy Mace
---
Lil Nas X
James Carville
Prince Harry
Sharon Stone
Greg Kinnear
Geena Davis
Jeanine Pirro
Jesse Watters
Linda Evangelista
Richard Gere
Tina Fey
James Charles
Todd Chrisley
Jon Lovett
Ann Coulter
Eric Trump
Meghan Markle
Charlie Sheen
Monica Lewinsky
Pitbull
Hasan Piker
Soon-Yi Previn
Donna Brazile
Elon Musk
Bette Midler
David Beckham
Steve Carell
Woody Harrelson
Harry Sisson
Lady Gaga
Rachel Maddow
Joe Rogan
Sarah Palin
Tiffany Trump
RuPaul
James Woods
Ted Cruz
Ivanka Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Katy Perry
Anthony Weiner
Kanye West
Hillary Clinton
Gypsy-Rose Blanchard
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Roger Stone
Roseanne Barr
Ariana Grande
Prince William
Woody Allen
George Santos
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Kevin Spacey
JD Vance
Catherine O'Hara
100
50
50
50
50
41
40
38
37
37
37
36
36
34
34
34
34
33
32
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
30
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
22
22
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
10
10
10
9
9
8
6
5
5
4
1
OptionProbability
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henly lead J.J. Spaun?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Keegan Bradley lead Colin Morikawa?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Maverick McNealy?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Corey Conners lead Kristoffer Reitan?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ryan Riley lead Chris Gerard?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Robert MacIntyre lead Jacob Bridgeman?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Davis Riley lead Taylor Pendrith?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Lee Hodges lead Harry Hall?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Patrick Reed?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Scottie Scheffler?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Patrick Reed?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Jason Day lead Andrew Putnam?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Tom Hoge lead Davis Riley?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Joel Dahmen lead Max McGreevy?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Chris Gotterup?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Maverick McNealy?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Maverick McNealy?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Michael Thorbjornsen lead Maverick McNealy?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?
06-07, After Round 4 of The Memorial will Scottie Scheffler lead Cameron Young?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Scottie Scheffler lead Xander Schauffele?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Xander Schauffele lead Rory McIlroy?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Scottie Scheffler lead Tommy Fleetwood?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Tommy Fleetwood lead Rory McIlroy?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Wyndham Clark lead Max McGreevy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
91-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Scottie Scheffler lead John Rahm?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
03-01, After Round 4 of the Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Scottie Scheffler?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Cameron Young lead Collin Morikawa?
07-19, After Round 4 of The Open Championship will Cameron Young lead Collin Morikawa?
07-19, After Round 4 of The Open Championship will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
07-19, After Round 4 of The Open Championship will Cameron Young lead Scottie Scheffler?
08-09, After Round 4 of The Wyndham Championship will Cameron Young lead Scottie Scheffler?
08-16, After Round 4 of The FedEx St. Jude Championship will Cameron Young lead Scottie Scheffler?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Brooks Koepka lead Justin Rose?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Scottie Scheffler?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
07-05, After Round 4 of The John Deere will Ben James lead Sam Burns?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
02-22, After Round 4 of the Genesis Invitational in Pacific Pallisades, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Aaron Rai lead Chris Gotterup?
03-08, After Round 4 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Chris Gotterup?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Alex Smalley lead John Parry?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Chris Gotterup?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Kevin Roy lead Chris Gotterup?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Patrick Reed lead Justin Rose?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Matt McCarty lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Ryan Gerard lead Chris Gotterup?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Matt McCarty lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Sam Stevens lead Si Woo Kim?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
03-15, After Round 4 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Corey Conners lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Justin Thomas lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Corey Conners lead Justin Thoomas?
05-31, After Round 4 of The Charles Schwab will Rickie Fowler lead J.J. Spaun?
05-31, After Round 4 of The Charles Schwab will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Ben James lead Sam Burns?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will John Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
06-21, After Round 4 of The US Open will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Xander Schauffele?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
85
69
66
65
60
59
59
59
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
44
41
26
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Kevin Warsh
Mary Daly
Austan Goolsbee
Susan Collins
Lisa Cook
Kevin Hassett
Arthur Laffer
Larry Kudlow
Judy Shelton
Chris Waller
Scott Bessent
Stephen Miran
Jim Cramer
Andrew Hussie
Janet Yellen
Michelle Bowman
Rick Rieder
Other
99
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Harry Kane
Other
Lamine Yamal
Kylian Mbappé
Michael Olise
Erling Haaland
Vinícius Júnior
Jude Bellingham
Florian Wirtz
Phil Foden
Bukayo Saka
Rodri
Kevin De Bruyne
Ousmane Dembélé
33
27
14
9
8
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Pope Leo XIV
Donald Trump
Zohran Mamdani
Elon Musk
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Dario Amodei
Marco Rubio
JD Vance
Jerome Powell
Péter Magyar
Christina Koch
Victor Glover
Jeremy Hansen
Sam Altman
Mark Carney
Reid Wiseman
James Talarico
Tucker Carlson
Candace Owens
Mojtaba Khamenei
Benjamin Netanyahu
Xi Jinping
Alysa Liu
Taylor Swift
Delcy Rodriguez
Megyn Kelly
Bad Bunny
Gavin Newsom
Vladimir Putin
Sultan Haitham bin Tarik Al Said
Kevin Warsh
Thomas Massie
Graham Platner
Kylian Mbappe
Pedro Sanchez
Anthony Albanese
Ro Khanna
Jacinda Ardern
Reza Pahlavi
86
76
62
47
45
36
33
30
25
25
24
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
17
16
14
14
14
13
11
10
10
8
6
6
5
5
OptionProbability
Other
Steve Scalise (current Republican Majority Leader, previous Speaker-Elect)
Jim Jordan (Previous Republican Speaker-Elect)
Mike Johnson Again (after being removed from power, then put back in power)
Elise Stefanik (Republican Conference Chairman)
Byron Donalds (Previous Speaker contender)
Tom Emmer (Republican Whip, previous Speaker-Elect)
Gary Palmer (Republican Policy Committee Chairman, Previous Speaker contender)
Patrick McHenry (Previous Republican Speaker pro tempore)
Kevin Hern (Previous Speaker contender)
Jack Bergman (Previous Speaker contender)
Austin Scott (Previous Speaker contender)
Chuck Fleischmann (Previous Speaker contender)
Mark Green (Previous Speaker contender)
Roger Williams (Previous Speaker contender)
Jodey Arrington (Previous Speaker contender)
Tom Cole (Chair of the House Rules Committee)
Donald Trump (Republican Candidate for President)
Kevin McCarthy (Previous Republican Speaker)
48
17
11
6
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
John Bolton
Letitia James
Fani Willis
Any sitting Democratic elected official
Lisa Cook
Adam Schiff
Jack Smith
Anyone additional for their role in the Jeffrey Epstein case
Tim Walz
Kevin Warsh
George Soros / anyone in Open Societies Foundation leadership
Jerome Powell
Anyone pardoned by Joe Biden
Liz Cheney
Hunter Biden
Anyone in the Obama family
100
100
80
68
63
51
50
50
50
50
45
45
40
34
20
20
OptionProbability
Mike Johnson
Hakeem Jeffries
Steve Scalise
Jim Jordan
Tom Emmer
Patrick McHenry
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Elise Stefanik
Donald Trump
Jim Clyburn
Elon Musk
Kevin McCarthy
Nancy Pelosi
100
72
10
10
10
10
8
6
5
5
5
3
1
OptionProbability
Jeffrey Sachs
Huey Li (and the news)
SerpentZA
Laowhy86
Nicholas Kristof
Michael Pettis
Peter Hessler
James Fallows
Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business
Liziqi
Nathan Rich
Living in China
Jerry Kowal
Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.
Asia Society Policy Institute
Yale Center Beijing
Brookings Institution (China Center)
Blondie in China
Elon Musk
Bill Bishop, Sinocism
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
40

