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Kevin Álvarez News

    Prediction markets for Kevin Álvarez

    Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

    Nov 30, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    288210499

    OptionProbability

    Zohran Mamdani

    Other

    Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

    Mark Carney

    James Talarico

    Jon Ossoff

    Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)

    Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

    Dario Amodei

    Xi Jinping

    Elon Musk

    Sam Altman

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    AOC

    Marco Rubio

    Vladimir Putin

    Gavin Newsom

    Jerome Powell

    Sydney Sweeney

    Demis Hassabis

    Larry Ellison

    Jensen Huang

    Gen Z

    Jeffrey Epstein

    Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

    Nicholas Maduro

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)

    Lisa Su

    Fei-Fei Li

    Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)

    Millenials

    Gen X

    Baby Boomers

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Scott Bessent

    Sundar Pichai

    Narendra Modi

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Jasmine Crockett

    Graham Platner

    Kevin Hassett

    Gen Alpha

    Claudia Sheinbaum

    Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)

    Ahmed al-Sharaa

    Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]

    Bad Bunny

    Kevin Warsh

    Pete Hegseth

    27

    19

    11

    10

    9

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    J. D. Vance

    Gavin Newsom

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Jon Ossoff

    Josh Hawley

    KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

    Glenn Youngkin

    Tucker Carlson

    Andy Beshear

    Kamala Harris

    Marco Rubio

    J. B. Pritzker

    Mark Kelly

    James Talarico

    Ron DeSantis

    Elise Stefanik

    Wes Moore

    Stephen Miller

    Nikki Haley

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Raphael Warnock

    Gina Raimondo

    Ro Khanna

    Chris Murphy

    Tammy Duckworth

    Chris Sununu

    Jeff Jackson

    Donald Trump Jr.

    James Donaldson (MrBeast)

    Sam Altman

    Tim Scott

    Brian Kemp

    Kristi Noem

    Cory Booker

    Beto O'Rourke

    John Fetterman

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Tom Cotton

    Brian Schatz

    Joni Ernst

    Michael Bennet

    Tammy Baldwin

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Josh Green

    Tina Kotek

    Ted Cruz

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Joe Rogan

    Jay Inslee

    Deval Patrick

    Eric Swalwell

    Wayne Messam

    Jared Polis

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Julian Castro

    Dean Phillips

    Katie Britt

    Laphonza Butler

    Eric Schmitt

    Mike Lee

    Catherine Cortez Masto

    Chris Coons

    Tim Kaine

    Lisa Murkowski

    Katie Hobbs

    Spencer Cox

    Tate Reeves

    Ruben Gallego

    Mark Cuban

    Erika Kirk

    Will Hurd

    Dan Crenshaw

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    Amy Klobuchar

    Andrew Yang

    Ezra Klein

    Stephen Colbert

    Stephen Curry

    Markwayne Mullin

    Rand Paul

    Joe Manchin

    Kevin Stitt

    Maura Healey

    Ivanka Trump

    David Hogg

    Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

    Taylor Swift

    Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

    Matt Gaetz

    Marianne Williamson

    Mike Pence

    Jon Stewart

    DUPLICATE

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Aella

    Scott Alexander

    Zendaya

    Michelle Obama

    Kanye West

    Mitt Romney

    Sarah Palin

    Ben Shapiro

    Bernie Sanders

    Hillary Clinton

    Tim Walz

    Al Gore

    Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

    Me

    Krantz (the user @Krantz)

    35

    18

    18

    15

    13

    12

    12

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Who will be the next Speaker of the House?

    Oct 25, 10:46 PMJan 8, 4:59 AM
    6023780

    OptionProbability

    Hakeem Jeffries

    Other

    Patrick McHenry

    Kevin McCarthy

    Steve Scalise

    Elise Stefanik

    Kevin Hern

    Tom Cole

    Tom Emmer

    Jim Jordan

    Elon Musk

    98

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will the Trump administration go after?

    Nov 13, 7:18 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
    5823226

    OptionProbability

    Mainstream Media

    Letitia James

    LQBTQ / Trans People

    Migrants

    Dr. Fauci

    LGBTQ+ / Transgender service members

    January 6th Committee

    Jack Smith

    Blinken

    Jimmy Kimmel

    Alejandro Mayorkas

    The Bidens

    Fluoride

    Liz Cheney

    Miles Taylor

    Vindman

    Zohran Mamdani

    Jerome Powell

    Bruce Springsteen

    Merrick Garland

    Elon Musk

    Michael Cohen

    Christopher Steele

    Texas Democrats (as a group)

    VAWA self-petitioners

    Furries

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    FDIC

    Rev. Budde/ Episcopal Church

    Susie Wiles

    Beyonce

    Mike Pence

    Brad Raffensperger

    Black Nationals

    E. Jean Carroll

    Rosie O'Donnell

    Karoline Leavitt

    Jeff Bezos

    Taylor Swift

    Alec Baldwin

    Kevin McCarthy

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    99

    99

    93

    90

    88

    83

    80

    80

    78

    78

    75

    66

    58

    56

    53

    50

    50

    50

    49

    45

    41

    41

    39

    35

    33

    31

    25

    23

    14

    13

    8

    5

    3

    3

    OptionProbability

    Pope Leo XIV

    Zohran Mamdani

    Mark Carney

    Donald Trump

    James Talarico

    Elon Musk

    Dario Amodei

    JD Vance

    Bad Bunny

    Marco Rubio

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Sam Altman

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Xi Jinping

    Alysa Liu

    Victor Glover

    Mojtaba Khamenei

    Delcy Rodriguez

    Christina Koch

    Jeremy Hansen

    Péter Magyar

    Reid Wiseman

    Taylor Swift

    Jerome Powell

    Kevin Warsh

    Vladimir Putin

    Tucker Carlson

    Gavin Newsom

    Ro Khanna

    Thomas Massie

    Pedro Sanchez

    Reza Pahlavi

    Kylian Mbappe

    Megyn Kelly

    Anthony Albanese

    Sultan Haitham bin Tarik Al Said

    Candace Owens

    Jacinda Ardern

    Graham Platner

    83

    73

    61

    51

    44

    41

    38

    30

    28

    28

    27

    25

    23

    19

    17

    17

    16

    16

    16

    16

    15

    13

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    2

    1

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Jamie Dimon

    J. D. Vance

    Kamala Harris

    Ted Cruz

    Gavin Newsom

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Cory Booker

    Ron DeSantis

    Nikki Haley

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Pete Buttigieg

    Tim Scott

    J. B. Pritzker

    Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

    Elise Stefanik

    Josh Shapiro

    Mike Pence

    Kristi Noem

    Andy Beshear

    Spencer Cox

    Glenn Youngkin

    Ro Khanna

    Marco Rubio

    Jackson Hinkle

    Dean Phillips

    Donald Trump

    Elon Musk

    Aella

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Xi Jinping

    Tammy Duckworth

    Ivanka Trump

    Mike Johnson

    Tucker Carlson

    Mark Zuckerberg

    An AGI

    Jared Kushner

    Zvi Mowshowitz

    Curtis Yarvin

    Mike Dunleavy

    Katie Hobbs

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Jared Polis

    Brian Kemp

    Scott Perry

    Joe Biden

    Josh Green

    Eric Holcomb

    Kim Reynolds

    Jeff Landry

    Wes Moore

    Maura Healey

    Tim Walz

    Tate Reeves

    Mike Parson

    Greg Gianforte

    Christopher Sununu

    Jim Pillen

    Joe Lombardo

    Phil Murphy

    Michelle Lujan Grisham

    Kathy Hochul

    Roy Cooper

    Doug Burgum

    Kevin Stitt

    Tina Kotek

    Bill Lee

    Greg Abbott

    Phil Scott

    Mark Gordon

    Tammy Baldwin

    Taylor Swift

    Josh Hawley

    Raphael Warnock

    Luigi Mangione

    Chuck Norris

    Robert Francis Prevost

    57

    5

    4

    3

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Joey Graziadei

    Sutton Stracke

    Cris Judd

    Parvati Shallow

    Anna Gasteyer

    Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)

    Tom Sandoval

    Suze Orman

    Paris Hilton

    Ronan Farrow

    Jinx Monsoon

    Walton Goggins

    Luann de Lesseps

    Zach King

    Cole Escola

    Luke Wilson

    Marc Maron

    Adam DeVine

    Drew Barrymore

    Jools Lebron

    Elle King

    Lynne Spears

    Emma Chamberlain

    Justine Bateman

    Denise Richards

    Camille Grammar

    Scheana Shay

    Michael Rapaport

    Mike White

    Sarah Silverman

    Beanie Feldstein

    Nicole Richie

    Dita Von Teese

    Jennifer Tilly

    Jessica Gunning

    Adam Lambert

    Mira Sorvino

    Danielle Brooks

    Meg Tilly

    Jason Bateman

    Julie Chrisley

    Daniel Stern

    Drake Bell

    Dixie D'Amelio

    Jeanette McCurdy

    Andrea Martin

    Billy Bob Thornton

    Andy Cohen

    Christina Hendricks

    Bowen Yang

    Noah Cyrus

    Raven Simone

    Jean Smart

    Kelly Ripa

    Noah Schnapp

    Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"

    Jussie Smollett

    Mel Gibson

    Jodie Foster

    Savannah Chrisley

    Mia Farrow

    Owen Wilson

    Victoria Beckham

    Nancy Mace

    ---

    Lil Nas X

    James Carville

    Prince Harry

    Sharon Stone

    Greg Kinnear

    Geena Davis

    Jeanine Pirro

    Jesse Watters

    Linda Evangelista

    Richard Gere

    Tina Fey

    James Charles

    Todd Chrisley

    Jon Lovett

    Ann Coulter

    Eric Trump

    Meghan Markle

    Charlie Sheen

    Monica Lewinsky

    Pitbull

    Hasan Piker

    Soon-Yi Previn

    Donna Brazile

    Elon Musk

    Bette Midler

    David Beckham

    Steve Carell

    Woody Harrelson

    Harry Sisson

    Lady Gaga

    Rachel Maddow

    Joe Rogan

    Sarah Palin

    Tiffany Trump

    RuPaul

    James Woods

    Ted Cruz

    Ivanka Trump

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Katy Perry

    Anthony Weiner

    Kanye West

    Hillary Clinton

    Gypsy-Rose Blanchard

    Marjorie Taylor Greene

    Roger Stone

    Roseanne Barr

    Ariana Grande

    Prince William

    Woody Allen

    George Santos

    Donald Trump

    Joe Biden

    Kevin Spacey

    JD Vance

    Catherine O'Hara

    Dolly Parton

    100

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

    38

    37

    37

    37

    36

    36

    36

    34

    34

    34

    34

    33

    32

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    30

    29

    28

    28

    28

    28

    27

    27

    26

    26

    26

    26

    26

    25

    25

    25

    25

    25

    24

    24

    24

    22

    22

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    19

    18

    18

    18

    18

    18

    18

    18

    18

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    15

    15

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    13

    13

    13

    13

    13

    12

    12

    12

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    8

    6

    5

    5

    4

    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    Oron Wang

    Nathan Liu

    Michael Zhao

    Ryan Tang

    Vincent Wang

    Other

    Krithik Manoharan

    Alexander Svoronos

    David Fox

    James Stewart

    Kevin Yang

    Jefferson Zhou

    Eric Xie

    Eric Guo

    Selena Ge

    Eddy Zhang

    Shunyao Yan

    Isaac Chan-Osborn

    Liam Reddy

    Maxwell Sun

    Tony Sharma

    Chester G

    Million Wang

    Christopher Peng

    Calvin Wang

    Alexander Wang

    33

    16

    9

    8

    6

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Shohei Ohtani

    Joe Burrow

    Erling Haaland

    Aaron Judge

    Giannis Antetokounmpo

    Patrick Mahomes

    Mookie Betts

    Jylian Mbappe

    Nikola Jokić

    Viktor Hovland

    Max Verstappen

    Rory McIlroy

    Lamar Jackson

    Giancarlo Stanton

    Tyreek Hill

    Joel Embiid

    Cooper Kupp

    Jon Rahm

    Karim Benzema

    Furkan Korkmaz

    Sidney Crosby

    Alexander Ovechkin

    Lionel Messi

    Stephen Curry

    Mike Trout

    LeBron James

    Kyrie Irving

    CJ McCollum

    Kevin Durant

    Tiger Woods

    Miguel Cabrera

    Fernando Alonso

    Cristiano Ronaldo

    Justin Verlander

    Neymar

    Max Scherzer

    Novak Djokovic

    93

    89

    89

    87

    86

    85

    83

    82

    80

    76

    75

    72

    67

    66

    66

    66

    66

    50

    50

    50

    50

    43

    40

    40

    38

    34

    34

    34

    27

    26

    24

    24

    19

    16

    10

    10

    3

    OptionProbability

    Harald Malmgren

    Steven Greer

    Daniel Sheehan

    Beatrix Villarroel

    Curt Jaimungal

    Jesse Michels

    Danny Jones

    Eric Weinstein

    Kevin Knuth

    Gary Nolan

    Joe Rogan

    Anna Paulina Luna

    Eric Burlison

    Leonard Susskind

    Stephen Wolfram

    Robert Kennedy Jr.

    Balaji Srinivasan

    Lex Fridman

    Donald Trump

    Liv Boeree

    Elon Musk

    Max Tegmark

    Aella

    Nate Silver

    Peter Thiel

    Patrick McKenzie

    Robin Hanson

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Bernie Sanders

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Barack Obama

    100

    95

    95

    90

    90

    90

    90

    88

    88

    88

    85

    76

    76

    76

    72

    63

    53

    52

    46

    44

    43

    35

    32

    26

    17

    17

    12

    12

    11

    8

    6

    OptionProbability

    The list of representatives-elect prepared by the clerk of the House at the start of the new Congress contains 435 names

    In the first meeting of the new Senate, the chair lays all 35 certificates of election before the Senate

    Kevin F. McCumber is the Clerk of the House of Representatives when the House is called to order at the beginning of the 120th Congress

    There is a constitutional challenge to the authority of the Clerk of the House to make the roll of members-elect

    At least one member is directed to stand aside and not take the oath with the rest of the House due to a challenge to their right to take the oath

    A question of the right of a senator to their seat is referred to a committee

    The House seats, without qualification or reservation, someone other than the person certified by the state as the representative for that seat

    At least one senator is asked to step aside and not take the oath with the rest of the senators

    During the first day of the new Senate, a resolution is introduced attempting to declare someone not entitled to a seat in the Senate

    An injunction or order issued by a federal court preventing a state from certifying an election (or sending such a certification to Congress) is in place when the 120th Congress is gaveled into session

    55

    55

    50

    43

    39

    34

    32

    31

    31

    31

    OptionProbability

    Kevin

    Nick

    Joe

    47

    28

    25

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