OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Pete Buttigieg
Marco Rubio
Gretchen Whitmer
Josh Hawley
Jon Ossoff
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Mark Kelly
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
Andy Beshear
Kamala Harris
Ron DeSantis
Wes Moore
Nikki Haley
Elise Stefanik
Mark Cuban
Stephen Miller
Vivek Ramaswamy
J. B. Pritzker
Cory Booker
Raphael Warnock
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Chris Sununu
Jeff Jackson
Donald Trump Jr.
Tim Scott
Brian Kemp
Kristi Noem
Beto O'Rourke
John Fetterman
Tom Cotton
Brian Schatz
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Tammy Baldwin
Kevin Stitt
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Ted Cruz
Tulsi Gabbard
Joe Rogan
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Jared Polis
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Catherine Cortez Masto
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Katie Hobbs
Spencer Cox
Tate Reeves
Ruben Gallego
Erika Kirk
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Tucker Carlson
Will Hurd
Dan Crenshaw
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang
Stephen Colbert
Stephen Curry
Markwayne Mullin
Rand Paul
Joe Manchin
Maura Healey
Ivanka Trump
David Hogg
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mark Zuckerberg
Mike Pence
Jon Stewart
DUPLICATE
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Sam Altman
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Tim Walz
Al Gore
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
41
22
18
17
16
13
13
11
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
Donald Trump and/or JD Vance
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc)
Bad Bunny
Zohran Mamdani
Marco Rubio
Xi Jinping
Benjamin Netanyahu
Elon Musk
Prediction Markets [Or associated person, company, etc]
Sam Altman
Vladimir Putin
Gavin Newsom
Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)
Jeffrey Epstein
Dario Amodei
James Talarico
AOC
Jerome Powell
Sydney Sweeney
Demis Hassabis
Larry Ellison
Jensen Huang
Gen Z
Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )
Nicholas Maduro
Mark Zuckerberg
Self Driving Cars (Including 'Waymo', 'Uber', etc)
Lisa Su
Fei-Fei Li
Humanoid Robots (Including 'Optimus', 'Atlas', etc)
Millenials
Gen X
Baby Boomers
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Scott Bessent
Sundar Pichai
Narendra Modi
Ursula von der Leyen
Jasmine Crockett
Graham Platner
Kevin Hassett
Gen Alpha
Claudia Sheinbaum
Cryptocurrency (Including 'Bitcoin', 'Etherium', etc)
Ahmed al-Sharaa
Jon Ossoff
Kevin Warsh
53
10
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jamal Musiala
Florian Wirtz
Joshua Kimmich
Jonathan Tah
Kai Havertz
Oliver Baumann
Nico Schlotterbeck
David Raum
Antonio Rüdiger
Waldemar Anton
Pascal Groß
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Alexander Nübel
Nick Woltemade
Serge Gnabry
Jonas Urbig
Leon Goretzka
Leroy Sané
Felix Nmecha
Malick Thiaw
Jamie Leweling
Deniz Undav
Nathaniel Brown
Josha Vagnoman
Anton Stach
Kevin Schade
Ridle Baku
Lennart Karl
Manuel Neuer
Angelo Stiller
Niclas Füllkrug
Karim Adeyemi
Emre Can
Noah Atubolu
Robert Andrich
Maximilian Mittelstädt
Marc-André ter Stegen
Finn Dahmen
Jonathan Burkardt
Paul Wanner
Chris Führich
Anyone not on this list
Assan Ouédraogo
Tim Kleindienst
Brajan Gruda
Eric Martel
Nadiem Amiri
Rocco Reitz
Tom Bischof
Maximilian Beier
Yann Bisseck
Luca Netz
Fabian Reese
Stefan Ortega
Max Finkgräfe
Paul Nebel
Thilo Kehrer
Saïd El Mala
Nelson Weiper
Finn Jeltsch
Robin Zentner
Robin Gosens
Matthias Ginter
Julian Brandt
Mario Götze
Paris Brunner
Youssoufa Moukoko
Nicolas Kühn
Armel Bella-Kotchap
Frans Krätzig
Diant Ramaj
Janis Blaswich
Niklas Beste
Marius Wolf
Marvin Ducksch
Kevin Behrens
Jonas Hofmann
Grischa Prömel
Kennet Eichhorn
Nicolò Tresoldi
Philipp Treu
Marvin Schwäbe
Bright Arrey-Mbi
Moritz Nicolas
Bence Dardai
Jan Thielmann
95
94
93
91
90
88
85
84
81
80
78
75
75
71
69
67
67
65
61
60
57
57
57
52
49
47
37
36
34
28
23
21
20
16
16
16
14
12
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
2
2
OptionProbability
Joey Graziadei
Sutton Stracke
Cris Judd
Parvati Shallow
Alana Frances Thompson (aka Honey Boo-Boo)
Jinx Monsoon
Tom Sandoval
Savannah Chrisley
Suze Orman
Paris Hilton
Ronan Farrow
Luann de Lesseps
Zach King
Cole Escola
Walton Goggins
Luke Wilson
Marc Maron
Jason Bateman
Adam DeVine
Drew Barrymore
Jools Lebron
Elle King
Lynne Spears
Emma Chamberlain
Justine Bateman
Denise Richards
Camille Grammar
Scheana Shay
Michael Rapaport
Mike White
Sarah Silverman
Beanie Feldstein
Nicole Richie
Dita Von Teese
Jennifer Tilly
Jessica Gunning
Adam Lambert
Mira Sorvino
Danielle Brooks
Meg Tilly
Julie Chrisley
Daniel Stern
Drake Bell
Dixie D'Amelio
Jeanette McCurdy
Andrea Martin
Billy Bob Thornton
Andy Cohen
Christina Hendricks
Bowen Yang
Noah Cyrus
Raven Simone
Jean Smart
Kelly Ripa
Noah Schnapp
Nikki Blonsky from the movie "Hairspray"
Jussie Smollett
Mel Gibson
Jodie Foster
Dolly Parton
Catherine O'Hara
Mia Farrow
Owen Wilson
Victoria Beckham
Nancy Mace
---
Lil Nas X
James Carville
Prince Harry
Sharon Stone
Greg Kinnear
Geena Davis
Jeanine Pirro
Jesse Watters
Linda Evangelista
Richard Gere
Tina Fey
James Charles
Todd Chrisley
Jon Lovett
Ann Coulter
Eric Trump
Meghan Markle
Charlie Sheen
Monica Lewinsky
Pitbull
Hasan Piker
Soon-Yi Previn
Donna Brazile
Elon Musk
Bette Midler
David Beckham
Steve Carell
Woody Harrelson
Harry Sisson
Lady Gaga
Rachel Maddow
Joe Rogan
Sarah Palin
Tiffany Trump
RuPaul
James Woods
Ted Cruz
Ivanka Trump
Donald Trump Jr.
Katy Perry
Anthony Weiner
Kanye West
Hillary Clinton
Gypsy-Rose Blanchard
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Roger Stone
Roseanne Barr
Ariana Grande
Prince William
Woody Allen
George Santos
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Kevin Spacey
JD Vance
100
50
50
50
41
40
38
37
37
37
37
36
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
30
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
22
22
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
16
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
10
10
10
9
9
8
6
5
5
4
OptionProbability
Kevin Warsh
Rick Rieder
Mary Daly
Austan Goolsbee
Susan Collins
Lisa Cook
Kevin Hassett
Arthur Laffer
Larry Kudlow
Judy Shelton
Chris Waller
Scott Bessent
Stephen Miran
Jim Cramer
Andrew Hussie
Janet Yellen
Michelle Bowman
Other
97
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henly lead J.J. Spaun?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Keegan Bradley lead Colin Morikawa?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Maverick McNealy?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Corey Conners lead Kristoffer Reitan?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ryan Riley lead Chris Gerard?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Robert MacIntyre lead Jacob Bridgeman?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Davis Riley lead Taylor Pendrith?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Lee Hodges lead Harry Hall?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Jason Day lead Andrew Putnam?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Tom Hoge lead Davis Riley?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Joel Dahmen lead Max McGreevy?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Chris Gotterup?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Jake Knapp lead Pierceson Coody?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Maverick McNealy?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Maverick McNealy?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Michael Thorbjornsen lead Maverick McNealy?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Pierceson Coody?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
91-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
03-01, After Round 4 of the Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Patrick Reed lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Patrick Reed?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Scottie Scheffler?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Patrick Reed?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Scottie Scheffler?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
02-22, After Round 4 of the Genesis Invitational in Pacific Pallisades, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Aaron Rai lead Chris Gotterup?
03-08, After Round 4 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Chris Gotterup?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Alex Smalley lead John Parry?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Chris Gotterup?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Kevin Roy lead Chris Gotterup?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Matt McCarty lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Ryan Gerard lead Chris Gotterup?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Matt McCarty lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Sam Stevens lead Si Woo Kim?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Nicolai Højgaard lead Hideki Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-13, After Round 2 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Chris Gotterup lead Ryan Gerard?
02-12, After Round 1 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Justin Rose lead Si Woo Kim?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Jake Knapp?
02-14, After Round 3 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Ryo Hisatsune lead Sam Burns?
03-15, After Round 4 of The Players Championship, will Ludvig Åberg lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Corey Conners lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Justin Thomas lead Xander Schauffele?
03-14, After Round 3 of The Players Championship, will Corey Conners lead Justin Thoomas?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
85
69
66
65
59
59
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
44
41
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Donald Trump
Zohran Mamdani
Sam Altman
Pope Leo XIV
Benjamin Netanyahu
Marco Rubio
Mark Carney
Elon Musk
Bad Bunny
Mojtaba Khamenei
Xi Jinping
Dario Amodei
JD Vance
Taylor Swift
Kevin Warsh
Delcy Rodriguez
Vladimir Putin
Jerome Powell
Pedro Sanchez
James Talarico
Graham Platner
Gavin Newsom
Thomas Massie
Reza Pahlavi
Anthony Albanese
Ro Khanna
Jacinda Ardern
Alysa Liu
69
42
38
37
36
34
34
33
32
31
31
30
28
26
26
26
26
25
20
15
14
14
14
10
10
10
9
9
OptionProbability
Wes Bos
Scott Tolinski
Josh W. Comeau
Kyle Cook
Kevin Powell
Adam Argyle
Adam Wathan
Ania Kubow
Cassidy Williams
Julia Miocene
Ben Hong
Bree Hall
Chris Coyier
Jason Lengstorf
Shaundai Person
Amy Dutton
9
9
9
9
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
OptionProbability
Other
Steve Scalise (current Republican Majority Leader, previous Speaker-Elect)
Mike Johnson Again (after being removed from power, then put back in power)
Jim Jordan (Previous Republican Speaker-Elect)
Elise Stefanik (Republican Conference Chairman)
Byron Donalds (Previous Speaker contender)
Tom Emmer (Republican Whip, previous Speaker-Elect)
Gary Palmer (Republican Policy Committee Chairman, Previous Speaker contender)
Patrick McHenry (Previous Republican Speaker pro tempore)
Kevin Hern (Previous Speaker contender)
Jack Bergman (Previous Speaker contender)
Austin Scott (Previous Speaker contender)
Chuck Fleischmann (Previous Speaker contender)
Mark Green (Previous Speaker contender)
Roger Williams (Previous Speaker contender)
Jodey Arrington (Previous Speaker contender)
Tom Cole (Chair of the House Rules Committee)
Donald Trump (Republican Candidate for President)
Kevin McCarthy (Previous Republican Speaker)
49
18
7
6
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Mike Johnson
Hakeem Jeffries
Steve Scalise
Jim Jordan
Tom Emmer
Patrick McHenry
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Elise Stefanik
Donald Trump
Jim Clyburn
Elon Musk
Kevin McCarthy
Nancy Pelosi
100
63
10
10
10
10
8
6
5
5
5
3
2
OptionProbability
Jeffrey Sachs
Huey Li (and the news)
SerpentZA
Laowhy86
Nicholas Kristof
Michael Pettis
Peter Hessler
James Fallows
Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business
Liziqi
Nathan Rich
Living in China
Jerry Kowal
Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.
Asia Society Policy Institute
Yale Center Beijing
Brookings Institution (China Center)
Blondie in China
Elon Musk
Bill Bishop, Sinocism
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
40
OptionProbability
Ryan Walters
Other
Kevin Stitt
Matt Pinnell
Gentner Drummond
Kevin Hern
Josh Brecheen
Stephanie Bice
Cindy Byrd
TW Shannon
GT Bynum
Charles McCall
10
10
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8

