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Kimmel News

    Prediction markets for Kimmel

    Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets

    Apr 26, 1:15 AMMay 27, 11:59 PM
    15543303

    OptionProbability

    At least one shot was fired

    Someone was hit by a bullet (or other firearm projectile)

    The shooter is (or all shooters are) identified or caught within 24 hours of the shooting.

    The first shot was entirely outside of (not from or into) the ballroom

    Shooter had donated to a candidate through actblue (Dem platform) before

    The shooter or shooters have a manifesto

    Shooter is an adult (18 yo+)

    Shooter is confirmed to be Cole Tomas Allen

    At least one shot was fired by a security / Secret Service person

    The shooter is (or shooters are) motivated by a grievance against the President or one or more members of the administration

    Shooter acted alone (No accomplices)

    Shooter is motivated by left-wing politics

    MAGA uses incident to bolster urgency for ballroom

    Shooter was a devout Christian

    Shooter had donated to the Ukrainian military

    The shot that hit an agent's vest was friendly fire

    Jimmy Kimmel will be suspended/cancelled over the Melania comments

    Congress authorizes Trump’s ballroom

    Attempt at Market Manipulation discovered

    Staged / organised by Trump or associates

    The shooter is (or shooters are) motivated by a grievance against the press or a member of the press

    Shooter is linked to Iran

    Shooter had donated to a candidate through winred(gop platform) before

    Shooter wrote on bullets

    Shooter is linked to Islamic terrorism

    Shooter is a furry

    Shooter is motivated by right-wing politics

    Shooter was threatened or blckmailed

    It was a distraction from Trump firing all 24 members of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s governing body

    An invited guest (not including security) fired at least one of the shots

    Shooter has a Manifold account

    Shot(s) were fired at the President

    The show will go on

    Shooter was a foreign national

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    99

    98

    96

    95

    51

    18

    15

    13

    13

    11

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    0

    0

    0

    Who will the Trump administration go after?

    Nov 13, 7:18 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
    5522391

    OptionProbability

    Mainstream Media

    Letitia James

    LQBTQ / Trans People

    Migrants

    Dr. Fauci

    LGBTQ+ / Transgender service members

    January 6th Committee

    Jack Smith

    Blinken

    Jimmy Kimmel

    Alejandro Mayorkas

    Fluoride

    The Bidens

    Miles Taylor

    Zohran Mamdani

    Jerome Powell

    Bruce Springsteen

    Merrick Garland

    Elon Musk

    Michael Cohen

    Christopher Steele

    Texas Democrats (as a group)

    VAWA self-petitioners

    Liz Cheney

    Furries

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Vindman

    FDIC

    Rev. Budde/ Episcopal Church

    Susie Wiles

    Beyonce

    Brad Raffensperger

    Mike Pence

    Rosie O'Donnell

    Black Nationals

    E. Jean Carroll

    Jeff Bezos

    Taylor Swift

    Alec Baldwin

    Kevin McCarthy

    Karoline Leavitt

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    99

    96

    93

    90

    83

    80

    80

    78

    70

    66

    58

    56

    53

    50

    50

    50

    49

    49

    45

    43

    41

    41

    39

    35

    31

    31

    26

    25

    23

    8

    5

    3

    3

    1

    OptionProbability

    Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st

    Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

    Evan permabanned from Manifold

    Charlie Kirk is the most viewed article on Wikipedia in 2025

    Any left-wing group is legally designated as a "terrorist organization"

    Jimmy Kimmel is reinstated.

    Jimmy Kimmel returns to air on Sinclair stations

    Charlie Kirk dies

    Charlie Kirk remains no longer alive

    Over 1 million combined lifetime student memberships and faith initiatives by Nov 2026

    The Trump Admin fails to issue any federal policies to protect campus speakers before 2027.

    government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing

    At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death

    South Park does an episode that alludes to it

    event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments

    Jezebel writer Claire Guinan testifies that she doesn't believe in witchcraft.

    NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting

    South Park episode canceled (not delayed)

    Another political assassination (either side)

    Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and/or declares martial law.

    Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.

    Any House Democrat is censured for comments on Kirk.

    The FCC revokes a station’s broadcast license over any misinformation about Kirk.

    event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting

    BBC does piece on furries that mentions Tyler Robinson

    "Groyper War 3" declared by Nick Fuentes or one of his generals

    Statue of Charlie Kirk erected in the capitol

    Information reward money paid

    high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated

    Actblue specifically is labelled a terrorist organization or shut down

    arson attack against gender clinic

    A prominent anti-Trump journalist is arrested.

    At least one furry convention canceled

    Robinson's roommate charged with any crime related to the assassination

    Jimmy Fallon fired, or show cancelled.

    TPUSA supports a gun control bill

    Any Democratic politician is arrested

    5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)

    Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled

    Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting

    Federal investigation started into "funders" of "the left"

    Any news organization is shut down

    Any left-wing NGO is shut down

    A member of a prominent left-leaning organization is arrested.

    A furry website is hacked and the users are doxxed

    80s-style moral panic over furries

    Another left-wing group is legally declared a terrorist organization.

    "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" ends, or Jimmy Kimmel is fired/resigns

    Seth Meyers fired, or show cancelled.

    Increased stigma towards sexual "deviants" in the US

    Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law

    At least 100 people are arrested on Antifa charges.

    Federal bill/EO to restrict/prevent transgender gun ownership

    America becomes a one-party GOP state.

    National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

    Kash Patel fired

    South Park canceled

    Kirk or the assassination referenced explicitly in super bowl ad

    Discord or Bluesky removed from the App Store or Play Store

    5 swatting attacks reported on (not before) 9/12

    Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    83

    79

    59

    56

    36

    33

    31

    30

    25

    24

    24

    23

    22

    21

    21

    20

    18

    18

    17

    15

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    10

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    9

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    1

    0

    0

    Who is the next late night show host to leave?

    Oct 8, 7:22 PMNov 1, 2:59 AM
    81619

    OptionProbability

    Stephen Colbert

    Jimmy Kimmel

    Jimmy Fallon

    Seth Meyers

    Other

    91

    8

    0

    0

    0

    Hasan Piker a guest on Jimmy Kimmel Live! In 2026?

    May 4, 1:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    7.18%chance
    81446

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1250

    978

    OptionProbability

    John Oliver

    Jimmy Kimmel

    Jimmy Fallon

    Seth Meyers

    Bill Maher

    Stephen Colbert

    93

    71

    64

    58

    52

    18

    Is Anthropic woke?

    Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM
    83.78%chance
    8402

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    227

    44

    OptionProbability

    The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

    The View

    NBC

    ABC

    CBS

    The Simpsons

    FOX

    South Park

    35

    34

    23

    20

    20

    10

    5

    4

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    300

    33

    Jimmy Kimmel out of ABC before May 2027?

    Apr 28, 12:05 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
    22.42%chance
    786

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    186

    54

    OptionProbability

    Taylor Swift

    Robert De Niro

    Jimmy Kimmel

    Kanye West

    60

    50

    50

    20

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