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Israeli Strike Hits Gaza’s Sole Catholic Church, Killing Two
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181
16 days ago
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OptionProbability
88
5
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
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0
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1312
762
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7967
126
Will Pope Leo XIV attend a professional sports game in the USA?
May 20, 6:53 PMDec 31, 7:52 PM
36.26%chance
152268
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1326
754
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2208
453
Will Pope Leo XIV give a p(doom) estimate in a public statement before January 1, 2026?
May 12, 9:02 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
3.94%chance
131763
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494
20
OptionProbability
56
44
Will Pope Leo XIV cease to be pope before the end of 2025?
May 22, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.5%chance
8731
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812
12
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the signatories of the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
May 16, 7:06 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
2280
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50
41
41
34
24
24
20
20
20
17
11
10
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82
18
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028?
May 16, 7:23 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
23.65%chance
595
OptionVotes
180
56
OptionProbability
38
20
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
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- Israeli Strike Hits Gaza’s Sole Catholic Church, Killing TwoAuthors18116 days ago
