Long News
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Prediction markets for Long
Will we have cheap long-distance jet packs by 2030?🔥
Jul 18, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
20.13%chance
523832
OptionVotes
1203
937
OptionProbability
1629
773
Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?
Dec 12, 6:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
34.98%chance
351217
OptionVotes
1111
912
Will Dick Cheney live long enough to see Monkey D. Luffy find the One Piece?
Nov 30, 3:33 PMJan 8, 4:59 AM
38.74%chance
31836
OptionVotes
2031
1975
How long until AI can generate original pages of an "I Spy" style picture book?
Jan 7, 8:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
42.92%chance
17822
OptionProbability
1097
737
How long until a writer can use AI alone to generate consistent imagery for a comic book / graphic novel?
Jan 9, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
28%chance
19558
OptionProbability
1073
697
On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year
Nov 27, 11:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
80.2%chance
16546
OptionVotes
988
961
Will a quantum money that can support a long-term galactic civilization be designed before 2035?
Jul 23, 4:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
22.38%chance
12497
OptionVotes
1024
979
Sudden jump in AI long-horizon capabilities (1-4 hr version)
Aug 19, 5:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
64.6%chance
6484
OptionVotes
1351
740
Is human civilization compatible with computers in the long term?
Mar 1, 10:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.81%chance
12263
OptionVotes
1017
978
Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000