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Luna News

    Prediction markets for Luna

    Who will be elected president in 2028?

    Apr 24, 1:23 AMNov 7, 12:00 AM
    21301925310

    OptionProbability

    Jon Ossoff

    J.D. Vance

    Gavin Newsom

    Other

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Marco Rubio

    Kamala Harris

    Ron DeSantis

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Donald Trump

    Tucker Carlson

    Andy Beshear

    JB Pritzker

    Raphael Warnock

    Mark Kelly

    Ro Khanna

    Chris Van Hollen

    Joe Rogan

    Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

    Ted Cruz

    Amy Klobuchar

    Kanye West

    Hunter Biden

    Mike Pence

    Jared Polis

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Bernie Sanders

    Greg Abbott

    Nikki Haley

    No 2028 Election

    Stacey Abrams

    Glenn Youngkin

    Elizabeth Warren

    Cory Booker

    Roy Cooper

    Tim Scott

    Mitch Landrieu

    Michelle Lujan Grisham

    Ruben Gallego

    Katie Porter

    Joe Biden

    Ration L. Ussy

    Wes Moore

    Mark Cuban

    Tim Walz

    RFK Jr.

    Tetraspace

    Lina Khan

    Shawn Fain

    Donald Trump Jr

    Elon Musk

    Ritchie Torres

    Taylor Swift

    Barack Obama

    Chris Murphy

    Stephen A. Smith

    Mickey Mouse

    Ivanka Trump

    Barron Trump

    Laura Loomer

    Abigail Spanberger

    Sam Altman

    John Fetterman

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Al Gore

    Kathy Hochul

    [deleted]

    Josh Hawley

    Rahm Emmanuel

    Ezra Klein

    Tim Kaine

    invalid

    Brian Kemp

    David McCormick

    Andrew Yang

    Anna Paulina Luna

    Amaryllis Fox

    AI Overlord

    Duplicate - Will Resolve No

    Duplicate - Will Resolve No

    Mike Johnson

    Steven Bonell (Destiny)

    Jamie Dimon

    Abrego Garcia

    Andrew Cuomo

    Invalid

    invalid

    Deval Patrick

    Jasmine Crockett

    Oprah Winfrey

    Michelle Obama

    Sheldon Whitehouse

    Robert Prevost

    Harambe

    Josh Stein

    Jeff Jackson

    Rand Paul

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Elissa Slotkin

    19

    14

    10

    10

    8

    7

    4

    4

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Ron Weasley is a redhead

    Snape is black

    Harry Potter is white

    At least one named character from the book has their race changed

    An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

    Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

    Fred and George are twins irl

    Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

    McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

    A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

    A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

    Premieres in 2026

    The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

    Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

    Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

    Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

    Malfoy has white blonde hair

    Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

    Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

    Peeves is a reoccurring character

    JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

    There’s a scene set before Harry is born

    Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

    Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

    A slur is uttered by any character

    A wand is visibly placed into, or drawn from, a character's pocket/robes more times than a wand is set down on a table or desk

    It's woke

    A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

    mandrake root on screen

    It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

    80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

    Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

    The total number of times the word 'Harry' is spoken across the season is strictly greater than 3.5 times the number of times the word 'Potter' is spoken

    A house elf is shown on screen

    Harry Potter is on-screen for at least 4 hours total

    More Great Horned Owls appear than Barn Owls

    A character who is named Dave or David appears in the show

    At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

    Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

    The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

    Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

    The cumulative screen time of Neville Longbottom's toad, Trevor, is strictly greater than the cumulative screen time of Argus Filch's cat, Mrs. Norris

    Season is nominated for Outstanding Drama Series at the Emmys

    Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

    The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

    The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

    Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

    Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

    Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

    An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

    VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

    Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

    Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

    "Voldemort" has a silent "t"

    Dobby makes an appearance

    90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

    Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)

    The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

    At least one of the actors is transgender

    It ends on a cliff hanger

    Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

    Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

    Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

    actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting

    Hermione is white

    Hermione is Indian

    Features an explicitly transgender character

    We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

    JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

    Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

    Premieres in 2027

    Awkwafina is cast in the show

    Hermione is black

    Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

    Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

    There will be seven CGI dwarves

    Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

    Keir Starmer is in it

    set in the 2020s

    set in 2025

    Adolf Hitler is mentioned

    Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender

    We get AGI before it premieres

    Voldemort is a woman

    Hagrid is black

    Yudkowsky makes an appearance

    Fred and George have the same actor

    HPMOR is referenced

    Gandalf is black

    One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

    Zendaya is cast in the show

    Set in the year 2077

    99

    99

    98

    97

    96

    95

    95

    95

    94

    94

    94

    93

    92

    90

    90

    90

    90

    87

    84

    83

    82

    80

    78

    77

    73

    71

    68

    68

    68

    67

    66

    65

    63

    62

    59

    59

    57

    56

    55

    55

    45

    42

    42

    41

    39

    39

    37

    33

    30

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    28

    27

    26

    25

    25

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    20

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    12

    10

    8

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    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    Who will be the first female president of the U.S.?

    Apr 9, 4:07 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    462951

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Kamala Harris

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Ivanka Trump

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Nikki Haley

    Stacey Abrams

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Kristi Noem

    Anna Paulina Luna

    Krystal Ball

    Carly Fiorina

    Michelle Obama

    Katie Porter

    Elizabeth Warren

    Tammy Baldwin

    Tammy Duckworth

    Oprah Winfrey

    Michelle Lujan Grisham

    Ayanna Pressley

    Joni Ernst

    Tina Kotek

    Katie Hobbs

    Barbara Lee

    Young Kim

    Lucy McBath

    Cori Bush

    Deb Haaland

    Hillary Clinton

    Meghan Markle, Duchess of Sussex

    77

    6

    4

    4

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What will be the name of my 1st female child?

    Nov 24, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    122420

    OptionProbability

    Mae

    Other

    Robin

    Melody

    Marin

    May

    Olivia

    Grace

    Jade

    Rose

    Emma

    Ava

    Mia

    Luna

    Emily

    Aria

    Ella

    Nova

    Willow

    Alice

    Autumn

    Cora

    Caroline

    Anna

    Serenity

    Juniper

    Moana

    elsa

    28

    17

    9

    8

    5

    5

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Mars

    Europa

    Titan

    Enceladus

    Venus

    K2-18 b

    Earth

    The Big Bang

    Ceres

    Pluto/Charon

    Triton

    Luna (presumably in a shaded crater/magma tube)

    Pluto

    Charon

    TRAPPIST-1d

    Proxima Centauri b

    Unknown

    58

    18

    8

    6

    5

    3

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Harald Malmgren

    Steven Greer

    Daniel Sheehan

    Beatrix Villarroel

    Curt Jaimungal

    Jesse Michels

    Danny Jones

    Eric Weinstein

    Kevin Knuth

    Gary Nolan

    Joe Rogan

    Anna Paulina Luna

    Eric Burlison

    Leonard Susskind

    Stephen Wolfram

    Robert Kennedy Jr.

    Balaji Srinivasan

    Lex Fridman

    Donald Trump

    Liv Boeree

    Elon Musk

    Max Tegmark

    Aella

    Nate Silver

    Peter Thiel

    Patrick McKenzie

    Robin Hanson

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Bernie Sanders

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Barack Obama

    100

    95

    95

    90

    90

    90

    90

    88

    88

    88

    85

    76

    76

    76

    72

    63

    53

    52

    46

    44

    43

    35

    32

    26

    17

    17

    12

    12

    11

    8

    6

    Will Maya Luna get deported in the next 4 years

    Mar 13, 10:03 PMFeb 29, 4:59 AM
    8.37%chance
    71524

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    331

    30

    Will Luna 26 be launched in 2027 or earlier?

    Aug 20, 12:45 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM
    7.41%chance
    9421

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    520

    100

    Will Luna 26 be launched in 2027 ?

    Aug 20, 12:39 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM
    6.28%chance
    8377

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    447

    96

    OptionProbability

    Mars

    Enceladas

    Other

    Europa

    Venus

    Other

    Titan

    Ganymede

    Callisto

    Some body that is not in hydrostatic equilibrium

    The Moon

    Luna (the moon)

    Ceres

    Dione

    Pluto/Charon

    Triton

    The atmosphere of a gas/ice giant

    25

    17

    14

    13

    11

    9

    5

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Tsunomaki Watame

    Tokoyami Towa

    Himemori Luna

    Amane Kanata

    41

    29

    29

    1

    Will Roscosmos's Luna 27 mission successfully land on the moon?

    Sep 16, 2:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    37%chance
    7169

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    176

    130

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