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Mann News

    Prediction markets for Mann

    Aliens.gov Prop Bets

    Mar 18, 2:39 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
    18916727

    OptionProbability

    The site has content before June 1, 2026

    The site has content before July 1, 2026

    It contains at least some text

    The site has content before January 1, 2027

    It's completely stupid

    It's about extraterrestrial life

    contains debunked media of space alien activity

    Documents declassified for the first time are on the site

    Mention of Roswell on site

    Mention of Area 51 on site

    it's about immigration

    Implies/suggests/states that UFO's are demons.

    Is significantly geo-restricted, for example the content cannot be viewed in Europe or some USA states without using a VPN.

    By May 1st, 2026, site contents unequivocally state UAP craft exist, but does not unequivocally state non-human intelligence exists

    It's about mexicans

    Contains AI images or video presented in a way that viewers are supposed to think they're real.

    implies race supremacy/ethnocentrism is real (genetic/cultural/preordained)

    It's an advert for a product a private company is selling, such as a movie.

    The site has content before April 1, 2026

    The site has content before May 1, 2026

    There is a report that the registration is hacked or otherwise not deliberate by the government

    It redirects to another domain before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)

    It's going to be used for an April fools joke.

    It will have its own Wikipedia page by 5/1

    It has a cookie consent banner/notice while viewed from any New York state VPN before 12:00am EST May 1, 2026 (If no site before deadline, resolves NO.)

    The government, bored of just selling pardons, has moved on to selling ".gov" domain names to 3rd party private organisations and/or individuals, and this is one of those times.

    contains debunked media of space alien activity [N/A – start of 2027]

    Aliens.gov will be the primary domain

    100

    100

    100

    100

    94

    75

    62

    46

    33

    27

    23

    21

    18

    10

    9

    8

    7

    3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the first person on Mars?

    Oct 23, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM
    221878

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Frank Rubio

    Christina Koch

    Oleg Kononenko

    Tang Hongbo

    Andre Douglas

    Randolph Bresnik

    Luca Parmitano

    Jessica Wittner

    Raja Chari

    Mark T. Vande Hei

    Scott Kelly

    Yuri Malenchenko

    Gennady Padalka

    Koichi Wakata

    Michael López Alegría

    Fyodor Yurchikhin

    Jing Haipeng

    Elon Musk

    An AI

    X Æ A-12

    Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut

    Jared Isaacman

    Jebediah Kerman

    Jack Hathaway

    Luke Delaney

    Nicole Aunapu Mann

    Someone who is not an option in this market at close time

    Aellagirl

    Qiaochu Yuan

    Connor Duffy

    Barron Trump

    74

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2017

    496

    Who will be the next person to land on the moon?

    Feb 9, 4:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
    161357

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Bob Hines

    Jing Haipeng

    Tang Hongbo

    Zhang Lu

    Stephanie Wilson

    Cai Xuzhe

    Ye Guangfu

    Andre Douglas

    Chen Dong

    Kayla Barron

    Jenni Gibbons

    Jasmin Moghbeli

    Elon Musk

    Kate Rubins

    Jessica Watkins

    Scott Tingle

    Frank Rubio

    Jessica Meir

    Anne McClain

    Nicole A. Mann

    Kjell Lindgren

    Christina H. Koch

    Jonny Kim

    Victor Glover

    Matthew Dominick

    Raja Chari

    Joseph Acaba

    Wang Yaping

    Zhai Zhigang

    Liu Yang

    Nichole Ayers

    Jessica Wittner

    @121

    Jeffery Bezos

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Warren Hoburg

    Other

    13

    12

    8

    7

    7

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?

    Aug 4, 12:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    161324

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Stephanie Wilson

    Samantha Cristoforetti

    Loral O'Hara

    Tracy Dyson

    Kayla Barron

    Nicole Mann

    Anne McClain

    Jessica Meir

    Jasmin Moghbeli

    Jessica Watkins

    Liu Yang

    Wang Yaping

    Wang Haoze

    Jenni Gibbons

    Christina Koch

    Kate Rubins

    20

    11

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    1

    1

    Fodder stock

    May 23, 6:24 PMMay 24, 6:59 AM
    5777

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    280

    63

    When will the MVM update for TF2 be released?

    Feb 13, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:06 AM
    3391

    OptionProbability

    July 2026

    Later than 2026

    August 2026

    September 2026

    March 2026

    April 2026

    May 2026

    June 2026

    October 2026

    November 2026

    December 2026

    February 2026

    13

    11

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    3

    OptionProbability

    United States

    Spain

    England

    Other

    France

    Sweden

    Germany

    Netherlands

    Japan

    North Korea

    Canada

    35

    25

    7

    6

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    Which many-world-ish interpretation is right?

    Aug 21, 11:58 PMAug 21, 11:32 PM
    2140

    OptionProbability

    There will never be a consensus

    Everett’s original

    Decoherence & decision-theoretic Many-Worlds (Wallace)

    Envariance / Quantum Darwinism (Zurek)

    Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Vaidman)

    Decoherent Histories (Gell-Mann–Hartle)

    Many-Minds (Albert–Loewer)

    Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Sebens–Carroll)

    50

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    24

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    104

    99

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