Mario Ávila News

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Hollow Knight: Silksong

Death Stranding 2: On the Beach

Kingdom Come: Deliverance II

Donkey Kong Bananza

Hades II

Civilization VII

Avowed

Split Fiction

Elden Ring Nightreign

Ghost of Yotei

Pokemon Legends: Z-A

Grand Theft Auto VI

Slay the Spire II

Metroid Prime 4: Beyond

Wanderstop

Monster Hunter Wilds

Blue Prince

Doom: The Dark Ages

Indiana Jones and the Great Circle

Mario Kart World

ARC Raiders

Dispatch

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Make correct Truchet tiles

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Fold a paper airplane

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Faster than light travel

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Ilia Topuria

Khamzat Chimaev

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Movsar Evloev

Lerone Murphy

Azamat Murzakanov

Michael Morales

Farid Basharat

Mario Pinto

Navajo Stirling

Jacobe Smith

Nurullo Aliev

Aliaskhab Khizriev

Andre Lima

Torrez Finney

Rafael Estevam

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Ian Machado Garry

Bo Nickal

Umar Nurmagomedov

Tatsuro Taira

Muhammad Mokaev

Sharaputdin Magomedov

Payton Talbott

Danny Barlow

Jhonata Diniz

Stewart Nicoll

Clayton Carpenter

Jean Matsumoto

Oumar Sy

Wang Cong

Raffael Cerqueira

Daniel Marcos

Tatiana Suarez

Rei Tsuruya

Mick Parkin

Hyder Amil

Diyar Nurgozhay

Tallison Teixeira

Malcolm Wellmaker

The Legend of Zelda

Pokémon

Donkey Kong Country

Red Dead Redemption

Super Mario

Cyberpunk (including Orion, etc)

Plants vs. Zombies

Animal Crossing

Splatoon

Super Smash Bros.

Rhythm Heaven

Katamari (塊魂)

Dragon Quest

WarioWare

Grand Theft Auto

Pikmin

The Elder Scrolls

Tekken

Call of Duty

Luigi's Mansion

F-Zero

Mario Golf

Pokémon Mystery Dungeon

Halo

Shantae

Microsoft Flight Simulator

Tales

virtua fighter

Fable

Pokémon Ranger

Tomodachi Life/Tomodachi Collection

Fallout

Pokémon Snap

Itadaki Street (Fortune Street/Boom Street)

Arms

Dark Souls

Bayonetta

Nintendogs

Itadaki Street (Fortune Street/Boom Street), in North America

Punch-Out!!

The Sims (excluding MySims)

Kid Icarus

Denpa Men

Homestuck/Hiveswap

Golden Sun

Labo

Pokémon Pinball

Kirby

Pit

Captain Falcon

Donkey Kong

Lucina

Toon Link

Luigi

Jigglypuff

Mario

Link

Samus

Pikachu

Ness

Peach

Bowser

Ice Climbers

Sheik

Zelda

Dr. Mario

Pichu

Falco

Marth

Ganondorf

Roy

Meta Knight

Zero Suit Samus

Wario

Sonic

King Dedede

R.O.B

Wolf

Villager

Shulk

Bowser Jr.

Duck Hunt

Ryu

Cloud

Simon Belmont

King K. Rool

Steve

Other

Yoshi

Fox

Young Link

Mewtwo

Mr. Game & Watch

Snake

Ike

PKMN Trainer

Diddy Kong

Lucas

Olimar

Lucario

Mega Man

Wii Fit Trainer

Rosalina & Luma

Little Mac

Greninja

Mii Fighter

Palutena

Pac-Man

Robin

Corrin

Bayonetta

Inkling

Ridley

Richter

Isabelle

Incineroar

Piranha Plant

Joker

Hero

Banjo-Kazooie

Terry Bogard

It will be nominated for at least one award at the Game Awards 2025

It will be nominated for multiple awards at the Game Awards 2025

It will get a Metascore of 50 or more

It will get a Metascore of 55 or more

It will get a Metascore of 60 or more

It will get a Metascore of 65 or more

It will get a Metascore of 70 or more

It will get a Metascore of 75 or more

It will get a Metascore of 80 or more

It will get a Metascore of 85 or more

It will have sold over 1 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 3 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 5 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 5.91 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart: Super Circuit for the Game Boy Advance) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 6.88 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart: Double Dash for the Nintendo Gamecube) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 8.46 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart 8 for the WiiU) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 8.76 million copies (the lifetime sales of Super Mario Kart for the Super Nintendo) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 6.88 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart: Double Dash for the Nintendo Gamecube) by the end of Calendar Year 2025

It will have sold over 6.88 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart: Double Dash for the Nintendo Gamecube) by the end of FY2026

It will be the best-selling Nintendo Switch 2 game (not including Nintendo Switch 2 edition games) at the end of calendar year 2025

It will have sold over 9.87 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart 64 for the Nintendo 64) by the end of FY2026

It will be the best-selling Nintendo Switch 2 game (not including Nintendo Switch 2 edition games) at the end of calendar year 2026

It will have sold over 9.87 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart 64 for the Nintendo 64) by the end of Calendar Year 2025

It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of FY2027

It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of FY2026

It will have sold over 37.38 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart Wii) by the end of FY2027

It will have sold over 18.99 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart 7) by the end of Calendar Year 2025

It will have sold over 37.38 million copies (The lifetime sales of Mario Kart Wii) by the end of FY2026

It will win an award at the Game Awards 2025

It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the Nintendo Switch (not counting WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8) by the end of calendar year 2027

It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe for the Nintendo Switch (not counting WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8) by the end of calendar year 2028

It will overtake the sales figures of Mario Kart 8 (INCLUDING WiiU sales of Mario Kart 8 AND Switch Sales of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe) by the end of calendar year 2029

It will win multiple awards at the Game Awards 2025

It will get a Metascore of 90 or more

It will get a Metascore of 95 or more

It will have sold over 9.87 million copies (the lifetime sales of Mario Kart 64 for the Nintendo 64) by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 12 million copies by the end of September 2025

It will have sold over 15 million copies by the end of September 2025

Clair Obscur: Expedition 33

Hollow Knight: Silksong

Donkey Kong Bananza

Death Stranding 2: On the Beach

Grand Theft Auto VI

Hades II

Mario Kart World

2XKO

Monster Hunter Wilds

Mewgenics

Pokémon Legends: Z-A

Waluigi

Kamek

Toad

Toadette

Tom Nook

Gengar

Octoling

Bandana Dee

Prince Fluff

Paper Mario

Chun-Li

Master Chief

Tails

Chibi-Robo

Psycho Mantis

Tetris piece (Tetromino)

Monster Hunter

Crash Bandicoot

Rayman

Doctor Eggman

Dino Piranha

Freddy Fazbear

Spider-Man

Lubba

竈門炭治郎 / Tanjiro Kamado

Mana-Chan

A third Mario brother

Jimmy Carter

The titular John Smash and Bob Smash

Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%

Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

noam chomsky alive until end of month

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

Volcano dormant for half a year erupts

trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times

NASDAQ hits an all time high

nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month

large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement

a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news

trump leaves usa at least once

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

New Half-Life game announced

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced

another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia

a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement

luffy finds the one piece

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

another indictment or charges announced against trump

Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

destiny goes on joe rogan

israel hamas ceasefire

usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon

twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)

ukraine russia ceasefire

usa troops enter lebanon

china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day

winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced

usa troops enter syria

usa bombs or missle strikes syria

Hurricane landfalls in Florida

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

100F temperature in nyc at least one day

starship launch

dick cheney still alive at end of month

Eliezer Yudkowsky is not alive for part of the month, but is alive on December 31.

silksong game releases

Super Mario Bros 2 (that isn't largely based on Luigi's Mansion)

A movie where Donkey Kong is the primary focus, more than Mario and Luigi.

Chun-Li (Street Fighter)

Tifa (Final Fantasy)

Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

Dva (Overwatch)

Lady Dimitrescu (Resident Evil)

Cortana (Halo)

Princess Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)

Sonic (Sonic the Hedgehog)

Palworld (player or any character)

Mario (Nintendo)

Master Chief (Halo)

Avengers: Doomsday

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Toy Story 5

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Dune: Messiah

Minions 3

Other

The Mandalorian and Grogu

The Odyssey

Project Hail Mary

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Michael