Matt Gaetz News

Other

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Robert Caro

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Kamala Harris

JD Vance

Terence Tao

Sarah Paine

Sam Altman

Narendra Modi

Gwern Branwen

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

roon

Geoffrey Hinton

Ilya Sutskever

Jensen Huang

Peter Thiel

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Satoshi Nakomoto

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

pope Francis

Scott Alexander

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Approval < 35%

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

trump gets hospitalized

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

USA experiences a recession.

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump visits Africa

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

10% fewer government agencies

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Dow rises above 65,000

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump says a racial slur

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Joe Biden dies

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

New national park created

BTC falls below $38,000

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

War is declared against another nation

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Repeal obamacare

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

JD Vance elected President

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Another pandemic

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

Trump runs for a third term

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump gets shot

Approval < 25%

Trump announces he is tired of winning

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump dies

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci is indicted

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

55 or more Republican senate seats

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Record level unemployment

54 or more Republican senate seats

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Trump is assassinated

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

A national ban on gender-affirming care

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

"covfefe" posted again

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump and Melania divorce

Ann Selzer arrested

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

JD Vance

Marco Rubio

Other

Tucker Carlson

Ron Desantis

Donald Trump Jr

Donald Trump, Sr

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Brian Kemp

Ivanka Trump

None

Greg Abbott

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Tim Scott

Vivek Ramaswamy

Kristi Noem

Mike Johnson

Matt Gaetz

Lauren Boebert

Tom Cotton

Elon Musk

Kari Lake

Sarah Sanders

Chris Sununu

Josh Hawley

Steven Mnuchin

Elise Stefanik

Ben Carson

Jamie Dimon

@Mira

Nick Fuentes

Doug Burgum

Paul Ryan

J. D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Marco Rubio

Gretchen Whitmer

Josh Hawley

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Mark Kelly

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Glenn Youngkin

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

Wes Moore

Nikki Haley

Elise Stefanik

Mark Cuban

Stephen Miller

Vivek Ramaswamy

J. B. Pritzker

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Tammy Duckworth

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Chris Sununu

Jeff Jackson

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Kristi Noem

Beto O'Rourke

John Fetterman

Tom Cotton

Brian Schatz

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Tammy Baldwin

Kevin Stitt

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Ted Cruz

Tulsi Gabbard

Joe Rogan

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Jared Polis

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Catherine Cortez Masto

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Katie Hobbs

Spencer Cox

Tate Reeves

Ruben Gallego

Erika Kirk

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Tucker Carlson

Will Hurd

Dan Crenshaw

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Stephen Colbert

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Joe Manchin

Maura Healey

Ivanka Trump

David Hogg

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Ezra Klein

Mark Zuckerberg

Mike Pence

Jon Stewart

DUPLICATE

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Sam Altman

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Tim Walz

Al Gore

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Me

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

JD Vance

Andy Beshear

Vermin Supreme

Pete Buttigieg

JB Pritzker

Jill Stein

Corey Booker

Marco Rubio

Nikki Haley

Gretchen Whitmer

Mark Kelly

Ted Cruz

Vermin Supreme - NA REMAKING

Glenn Youngkin

Brian Schatz

Eric Trump

Ron DeSantis

Spencer Cox

Kamala Harris

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Rand Paul

Cornel West

Greg Abbott

Josh Hawley

John Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marianne Williamson

Adam Schiff

Tulsi Gabbard

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Katie Britt

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Stephen A. Smith

Vivek Ramaswamy

Amy Klobuchar

Mitch Landrieu

Robert F Kennedy Jr

Tim Scott

Wes Moore

Raphael Warnock

Brian Kemp

Jared Polis

Scott Perry

Andy Kim

Mark Cuban

Nicole Shanahan

Donald Trump, Jr.

Steve Bannon

Byron Donalds

Kristi Noem

Chris Sununu

Marty Walsh

Erika Kirk

Elise Stefanik

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Donald Trump

Michael Bloomberg

Tammy Duckworth

John Fetterman

Matt Gaetz

Roy Cooper

Chris Christie

Lauren Boebert

Elizabeth Warren

Martin O'Malley

Andrew Yang

Katie Porter

Tim Walz

Mike Pompeo

Daniel "Keemstar" Keem

Ron Paul

Cenk Uygur

Mike Pence

Bernie Sanders

Elon Musk

Michelle Obama

Taylor Swift

Hillary Clinton

Ilhan Omar

Samuel L. Jackson

Mark Fischbach

Jimmy Carter

Joe Biden

Chuck Norris

J. D. Vance

Marco Rubio

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Ron DeSantis

Ted Cruz

Tucker Carlson

Pete Hegseth

Josh Hawley

Brian Kemp

Doug Burgum

Will Hurd

Donald Trump Jr.

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Tom Cotton

Rick Scott

Todd Young

Joni Ernst

Markwayne Mullin

Chris Sununu

Elise Stefanik

Vivek Ramaswamy

Franciz Suarez

Mike Johnson

Greg Abbott

Byron Donalds

Chris Christie

Rand Paul

Kristi Noem

Mike Lee

Kim Reynolds

Dan Crenshaw

Katie Britt

Tim Scott

Mike Pence

Donald Trump

Tulsi Gabbard

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Mike Pompeo

Liz Cheney

JD Vance

Nikki Haley

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Ron Desantis

Glenn Youngkin

Spencer Cox

Tom Cotton

Rand Paul

Josh Hawley

Greg Abbott

Doug Burgum

Tulsi Gabbard

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vivek Ramaswamy

Sarah Sanders

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Donald Trump, Sr

Mike Johnson

Donald Trump Jr

Kristi Noem

Jamie Dimon

Chris Sununu

Tucker Carlson

Elise Stefanik

Matt Gaetz

Lauren Boebert

Kari Lake

Paul Ryan

Mike Pence

Elon Musk

Steven Mnuchin

Ben Carson

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Pete Buttigieg

Greg Abbott

Ron DeSantis

Kari Lake

Gretchen Whitmer

Roy Cooper

Josh Hawley

Ilhan Omar

Ben Carson

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)

Hakeem Jeffries

Wes Moore

Andy Beshear

Byron Donalds

Nikki Haley

Elise Stefanik

Mark Cuban

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

J.B. Pritzker

Raphael Warnock

Kristi Noem

Tammy Duckworth

Vivek Ramaswamy

Brian Kemp

Katie Porter

Beto O'Rourke

Katie Britt

Tim Scott

Kamala Harris

Andrew Yang

John Fetterman

Tucker Carlson

Michelle Obama

Stephen Colbert

Matt Gaetz

Jon Stewart

Hillary Clinton

Chuck Norris

Eliezer Yudkowsky

YES

YES

Byron Donalds

Other

Casey DeSantis

Matt Gaetz

Ashley Moody

Jeanette Nuñez

Wilton Simpson

Francis Suarez

Michael Waltz

YES