Matt Gaetz News

JD Vance

Other

Marco Rubio

Ron Desantis

Ted Cruz

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump Jr

Thomas Massie

Donald Trump, Sr

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Brian Kemp

None

Greg Abbott

Mike Pence

Tim Scott

Vivek Ramaswamy

Kristi Noem

Mike Johnson

Matt Gaetz

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Lauren Boebert

Tom Cotton

Elon Musk

Kari Lake

Sarah Sanders

Chris Sununu

Josh Hawley

Steven Mnuchin

Elise Stefanik

Ben Carson

Jamie Dimon

Ivanka Trump

@Mira

Nick Fuentes

Doug Burgum

Paul Ryan

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

New national park created

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Approval < 35%

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US national bitcoin reserve created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

A new supreme court justice appointed

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Joe Biden dies

Dow rises above 65,000

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump says a racial slur

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Kennedy Center is repurposed

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Tesla

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

BTC falls below $38,000

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump runs 4 president (physically runs >4x the average height of US presidents in a continuous go)

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Deep funding cuts to nih, cdc, hhs, fda all implemented and becomes law

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

McDonald's reopens in Russia

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US Invasion of any North/South American country

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

American Manned Lunar Landing

Approval < 25%

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

War is declared against another nation

Kennedy Center is demolished

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump loses the fake tan

10% fewer government agencies

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump breaks a bone in his body

Trump dies

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down and cease to exist

Trump runs for a third term

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump pumps a plump rump (grabs and moves back and forth someone else's butt)

World war 3 occurs and global war is launched

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Repeal obamacare

Trump is assassinated

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

54 or more Republican senate seats

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

United States becomes totalitarian dictatorship

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

55 or more Republican senate seats

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

J. D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gretchen Whitmer

Jon Ossoff

Josh Hawley

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Glenn Youngkin

Tucker Carlson

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Marco Rubio

J. B. Pritzker

Mark Kelly

James Talarico

Ron DeSantis

Elise Stefanik

Wes Moore

Stephen Miller

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Raphael Warnock

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Tammy Duckworth

Chris Sununu

Jeff Jackson

Donald Trump Jr.

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Sam Altman

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Kristi Noem

Cory Booker

Beto O'Rourke

John Fetterman

Mark Zuckerberg

Tom Cotton

Brian Schatz

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Tammy Baldwin

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Ted Cruz

Tulsi Gabbard

Joe Rogan

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Jared Polis

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Catherine Cortez Masto

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Katie Hobbs

Spencer Cox

Tate Reeves

Ruben Gallego

Mark Cuban

Erika Kirk

Will Hurd

Dan Crenshaw

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Ezra Klein

Stephen Colbert

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Joe Manchin

Kevin Stitt

Maura Healey

Ivanka Trump

David Hogg

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Mike Pence

Jon Stewart

DUPLICATE

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Tim Walz

Al Gore

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Me

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Ro Khanna

Gavin Newsom

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

JD Vance

Vermin Supreme

Mark Kelly

Corey Booker

Jill Stein

John Ossoff

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Ron DeSantis

Kamala Harris

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Chris Murphy

Wes Moore

Vermin Supreme - NA REMAKING

Mitch Landrieu

Glenn Youngkin

Raphael Warnock

Cornel West

Spencer Cox

Brian Schatz

Josh Hawley

Rand Paul

Marianne Williamson

Nikki Haley

Adam Schiff

Gretchen Whitmer

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Eric Trump

Katie Britt

Greg Abbott

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Vivek Ramaswamy

Robert F Kennedy Jr

Brian Kemp

Tim Scott

Andy Kim

Jared Polis

Scott Perry

Mark Cuban

Nicole Shanahan

Donald Trump, Jr.

Tulsi Gabbard

Steve Bannon

Byron Donalds

Kristi Noem

Chris Sununu

Marty Walsh

Erika Kirk

Elise Stefanik

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Stephen A. Smith

Donald Trump

Amy Klobuchar

Roy Cooper

Michael Bloomberg

Andrew Yang

Tammy Duckworth

John Fetterman

Matt Gaetz

Tim Walz

Chris Christie

Lauren Boebert

Martin O'Malley

Mike Pompeo

Daniel "Keemstar" Keem

Ron Paul

Mike Pence

Elizabeth Warren

Katie Porter

Cenk Uygur

Bernie Sanders

Elon Musk

Michelle Obama

Taylor Swift

Hillary Clinton

Ilhan Omar

Samuel L. Jackson

Mark Fischbach

Jimmy Carter

Joe Biden

Chuck Norris

J. D. Vance

Marco Rubio

Glenn Youngkin

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

Ted Cruz

Tucker Carlson

Pete Hegseth

Josh Hawley

Brian Kemp

Doug Burgum

Will Hurd

Donald Trump Jr.

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Tom Cotton

Rick Scott

Todd Young

Joni Ernst

Markwayne Mullin

Chris Sununu

Elise Stefanik

Vivek Ramaswamy

Franciz Suarez

Mike Johnson

Greg Abbott

Byron Donalds

Chris Christie

Rand Paul

Kristi Noem

Mike Lee

Kim Reynolds

Dan Crenshaw

Katie Britt

Tim Scott

Mike Pence

Donald Trump

Tulsi Gabbard

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Mike Pompeo

Liz Cheney

Ted Cruz

JD Vance

Ron Desantis

Marco Rubio

John Kennedy

Rand Paul

Scott Bessent

Glenn Youngkin

Spencer Cox

Tom Cotton

Chris Christie

Don Bacon

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Brian Kemp

Tulsi Gabbard

Sarah Sanders

Doug Burgum

Tucker Carlson

Vivek Ramaswamy

Nikki Haley

Donald Trump Jr

Greg Abbott

Mike Johnson

Kristi Noem

Jamie Dimon

Spencer Pratt

Chris Sununu

Tim Scott

Donald Trump, Sr

Elise Stefanik

Lauren Boebert

Kari Lake

Josh Hawley

Melania Trump

Paul Ryan

Mike Pence

Matt Gaetz

Jon Ossoff

James Talarico

Elon Musk

Steven Mnuchin

J.D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio

Pete Buttigieg

Greg Abbott

Ron DeSantis

Kari Lake

Roy Cooper

Gretchen Whitmer

Josh Hawley

Ilhan Omar

Ben Carson

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)

Hakeem Jeffries

Andy Beshear

Byron Donalds

Nikki Haley

Wes Moore

Elise Stefanik

Mark Cuban

Raphael Warnock

Kristi Noem

Tammy Duckworth

Vivek Ramaswamy

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

J.B. Pritzker

Brian Kemp

Katie Porter

Beto O'Rourke

Katie Britt

Tim Scott

Kamala Harris

Andrew Yang

John Fetterman

Tucker Carlson

Michelle Obama

Stephen Colbert

Matt Gaetz

Jon Stewart

Hillary Clinton

Chuck Norris

Eliezer Yudkowsky

[No one]

Elon Musk

Vivek Ramaswamy

Matt Gaetz

Tulsi Gabbard

Pete Hegseth

Kristi Noem

Other

There will not be a 2040 US presidential election

Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez

AI

Mr. Beast

Destiny

Jon Ossoff

Nikil Saval

Maxwell Frost

Matt Gaetz

JD Vance

Barren Trump

Taylor Swift

@ZacParker

Mr. Beat

YES

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC (D: NY-14)

Josh Hawley (R: MO)

Rashida Tlaib (D: MI-12)

Jon Ossoff (D: GA)

Maxwell Frost (D: FL-10)

Cori Bush (D: MO-1)

YES