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Medvedev News

    Prediction markets for Medvedev

    Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

    Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    12422838480

    OptionProbability

    Elon Musk

    Bill Gates

    Jeff Bezos

    Other

    Barack Obama

    Mr. Beast

    Robert Caro

    Donald Trump

    Kamala Harris

    JD Vance

    Sam Altman

    Gwern Branwen

    roon

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Leonardo DiCaprio

    Ilya Sutskever

    Jensen Huang

    Peter Thiel

    No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

    Sarah Paine

    Satya Nadella

    Justin Trudeau

    Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

    Narendra Modi

    Xi Jinping

    Dalai Lama

    Buffett

    Taylor Swift

    Joe Biden

    Lebron James

    GPT-5

    Bill Clinton

    A basketball player

    Vladimir Putin

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Jesus Christ

    Rona Wang

    Jose Luis ricon

    Kettner Griswold

    James Koppel

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Nancy Pelosi

    Rishi Sunak

    Keir Starmer

    Satoshi Nakomoto

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Jimmy Carter

    George W Bush

    Al Gore

    Michael Jackson

    your mom

    Mitt Romney

    one or both of his parents

    A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

    Connor Duffy

    MBS

    pope Francis

    Scott Alexander

    The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

    RFK Jr

    Sydney Sweeney

    growing_daniel

    greg16676935420

    Deadpool

    Terence Tao

    Shaq

    Oprah Winfrey

    Yoshua Bengio

    Sundar Pichai

    Scarlett Johansson

    Paul McCartney

    [duplicate]

    Neel Nanda

    King Charles

    Kim Jong Un

    Gavin Newsom

    Royal Palace

    [cancelled option]

    Daniel Yergin

    Peter Singer

    Gabe Newell

    Neil Gorsuch

    Stephen Breyer

    Dmitry Medvedev

    JK Rowling

    Shrek

    Sam Hyde

    [invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

    Marques Brownlee

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Ben Shindel

    Javier Milei

    Dylan Patel

    Joe Rogan

    Marc Andreessen

    Tim Cook

    Mike Tyson

    Jake Paul

    Matt Gaetz

    32

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    2026 ATP Tour Men's Tennis Matches 🎾

    Jan 18, 3:03 PMFeb 16, 8:15 AM
    6395229

    OptionProbability

    🇫🇷 Q. Halys vs 🇨🇱 A. Tabilo [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇵🇹 N. Borges vs 🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (7) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (11) vs 🇳🇱 J. de Jong [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇺🇸 T. Paul (19) vs 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇭🇺 F. Marozsán vs 🇫🇷 A. Rinderknech (24) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇨🇳 J. Shang vs 🇪🇸 R. Bautista Agut [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇺🇸 L. Tien (25) vs 🇺🇸 M. Giron [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇷 T. A. Tirante vs 🇦🇺 A. Vukić [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇵🇱 K. Majchrzak vs 🇬🇧 J. Fearnley [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov (21) vs 🇨🇳 Y. Bu [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇪🇸 J. Munar vs 🇨🇿 D. Švrčina [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇮🇹 L. Sonego vs 🇪🇸 C. Taberner [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇮🇹 L. Musetti (5) vs 🇧🇪 R. Collignon [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇷🇺 K. Khachanov (15) vs 🇺🇸 A. Michelsen [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇺🇸 E. Quinn vs 🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor (23) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇺 D. Sweeny vs 🇫🇷 G. Monfils [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇨🇿 J. Menšík (16) vs 🇪🇸 P. Carreño Busta [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇺🇸 B. Shelton (8) vs 🇫🇷 U. Humbert [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇺 J. Duckworth vs 🇭🇷 D. Prizmić [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz vs 🇧🇪 Z. Bergs [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇨🇿 V. Kopriva vs 🇩🇪 J-L. Struff [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇰🇿 A. Bublik (10) vs 🇭🇺 M. Fucsovics [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇦🇷 T. Etcheverry vs 🇬🇧 A. Fery [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs 🇩🇪 Y. Hanfmann [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo (18) vs 🇧🇦 D. Dzumhur [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (11) vs 🇫🇷 Q. Halys [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe (29) vs 🇦🇷 F. Comesana [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 T. Paul (19) vs 🇦🇷 T. Tirante [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 L. Tien (25) vs 🇰🇿 A. Shevchenko [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇩🇪 A. Zverev (3) vs 🇫🇷 A. Muller [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 B. Shelton (8) vs 🇦🇺 D. Sweeny [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇨🇿 J. Mensik (16) vs 🇪🇸 R. Jodar [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇮🇹 L. Musetti (5) vs 🇮🇹 L. Sonego [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇨🇿 T. Machac vs 🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (31) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp vs 🇨🇳 J. Shang [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇷🇺 K. Khachanov (15) vs 🇺🇸 N. Basavareddy (Q) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 E. Spizzirri vs 🇨🇳 Y. Wu (Q) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs 🇫🇷 C. Moutet (32) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇺🇸 T. Paul (19) vs 🇪🇸 A. Davidovich Fokina (14) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇰🇿 A. Bublik (10) vs 🇦🇷 T. Etcheverry [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇩🇪 A. Zverev (3) vs 🇬🇧 C. Norrie (26) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇦🇷 F. Cerúndolo (18) vs 🇷🇺 A. Rublev (13) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (11) vs 🇭🇺 F. Marozsán [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇺🇸 L. Tien (25) vs 🇵🇹 N. Borges [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇮🇹 L. Musetti (5) vs 🇨🇿 T. Machac [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇨🇿 J. Mensik (16) vs 🇺🇸 E. Quinn [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇺🇸 B. Shelton (8) vs 🇲🇨 V. Vacherot (30) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs 🇺🇸 T. Paul (19) [Australian Open – Round 4]

    🇩🇪 A. Zverev (3) vs 🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo (18) [Australian Open – Round 4]

    🇮🇹 L. Musetti (5) vs 🇺🇸 T. Fritz (9) [Australian Open – Round 4]

    🇺🇸 B. Shelton (8) vs 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (12) [Australian Open – Round 4]

    🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (6) [Australian Open – Quarterfinal]

    🇩🇪 A. Zverev (3) vs 🇺🇸 L. Tien (25) [Australian Open – Quarterfinal]

    🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs 🇩🇪 A. Zverev (3) [Australian Open – Semifinal]

    🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) vs 🇮🇹 J. Sinner (2) [Australian Open – Semifinal]

    🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz (1) vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Final]

    🇫🇷 U. Humbert (5) vs 🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 A. Gea vs 🇫🇷 G. Mpetshi Perricard [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇪🇸 R. Bautista Agut vs 🇦🇺 C. O'Connell [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 A. Gea (WC) vs 🇨🇿 T. Machac (3) [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 M. Damm (Q) vs 🇪🇸 R. Bautista Agut [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 2]

    🇨🇦 F. Auger-Aliassime (1) vs 🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 2]

    🇳🇱 T. Griekspoor (4) vs 🇪🇸 P. Carreno Busta [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 2]

    Rotterdam and Dallas tk (will NA)

    🇦🇺 C. O'Connell vs 🇺🇸 N. Basavareddy [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 G. Mpetshi Perricard vs 🇦🇷 S. Baez [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇨🇿 J. Mensik (16) vs 🇪🇸 P. Carreno Busta [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇺 J. Duckworth vs 🇭🇷 D. Prizmic [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇨🇿 V. Kopriva vs 🇩🇪 J. Struff [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇹🇷 Z. Sonmez vs 🇭🇺 A. Bondár [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇺 T. Gibson vs 🇷🇺 D. Shnaider (23) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic vs 🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka (WC) [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 T. Droguet vs 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (8) [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 2]

    🇮🇹 L. Nardi vs 🇮🇹 F. Cobolli (2) [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 2]

    🇫🇷 U. Blanchet vs 🇫🇷 A. Fils (6) [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 2]

    🇨🇿 J. Mensik (16) vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Round 4]

    🇸🇪 E. Ymer vs 🇰🇿 A. Shevchenko [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇷 M. Navone vs 🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇮🇹 M. Arnaldi vs 🇷🇺 A. Rublev (13) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇳🇴 N. Budkov Kjær vs 🇺🇸 R. Opelka [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇹 F. Misolic vs 🇪🇸 A. Davidovich Fokina (14) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇺🇸 B. Nakashima (27) vs 🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇩🇪 D. Altmaier vs 🇭🇷 M. Čilić [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇷 J. M. Cerúndolo vs 🇦🇺 J. Thompson [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇷🇸 L. Djere vs 🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇺🇸 M. McDonald vs 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (6) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 A. Mannarino vs 🇦🇺 R. Hijikata [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇨🇿 J. Lehečka (17) vs 🇫🇷 A. Gea [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 T. Atmane vs 🇮🇹 F. Maestrelli [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇺🇸 M. Damm Jr. vs 🇲🇨 V. Vacherot (30) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇺 A. Popyrin vs 🇫🇷 A. Muller [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇪🇸 P. Martinez vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇮🇹 M. Bellucci vs 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (12) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 H. Gaston vs 🇮🇹 J. Sinner (2) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇨🇱 C. Garin vs 🇮🇹 L. Darderi (22) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇦🇺 C. O’Connell vs 🇺🇸 N. Basavareddy [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇧🇷 J. Fonseca (28) vs 🇺🇸 E. Spizzirri [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 G. Mpetshi Perricard vs 🇦🇷 S. Báez [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇮🇹 L. Nardi vs 🇨🇳 Y. Wu [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇯🇵 R. Sakamoto vs 🇪🇸 R. Jodar [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 V. Royer vs 🇺🇸 T. Fritz (9) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇧🇬 G. Dimitrov vs 🇨🇿 T. Machac [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇯🇵 S. Mochizuki vs 🇬🇷 S. Tsitsipas (31) [Australian Open – Round 1]

    🇺🇸 R. Opelka vs 🇪🇸 A. Davidovich Fokina (14) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic vs 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (6) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇵🇹 J. Faria vs 🇷🇺 A. Rublev (13) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 E. Nava vs 🇬🇧 C. Norrie (26) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 M. Zheng vs 🇫🇷 C. Moutet (32) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇵🇱 K. Majchrzak vs 🇭🇺 F. Marozsan [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇦🇺 J. Thompson vs 🇵🇹 N. Borges [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇪🇸 J. Munar vs 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (12) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇮🇹 F. Maestrelli vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇫🇷 A. Gea (Q) vs 🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka (WC) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇨🇿 V. Kopriva vs 🇺🇸 T. Fritz (9) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇵🇱 H. Hurkacz vs 🇺🇸 E. Quinn [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇦🇺 R. Hijikata (WC) vs 🇲🇨 V. Vacherot (30) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇨🇦 D. Shapovalov (21) vs 🇭🇷 M. Čilić [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇦🇷 S. Báez vs 🇮🇹 L. Darderi (22) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇦🇺 J. Duckworth (WC) vs 🇮🇹 J. Sinner (2) [Australian Open – Round 2]

    🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe (29) vs 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (6) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka (WC) vs 🇺🇸 T. Fritz (9) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇳🇱 B. van de Zandschulp vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇭🇷 M. Cilic vs 🇳🇴 C. Ruud (12) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇷🇺 K. Khachanov (15) vs 🇮🇹 L. Darderi (22) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇺🇸 E. Spizzirri vs 🇮🇹 J. Sinner (2) [Australian Open – Round 3]

    🇰🇿 A. Bublik (10) vs 🇦🇺 A. de Minaur (6) [Australian Open – Round 4]

    🇷🇺 D. Medvedev (11) vs 🇺🇸 L. Tien (25) [Australian Open – Round 4]

    🇮🇹 L. Darderi (22) vs 🇮🇹 J. Sinner (2) [Australian Open – Round 4]

    🇮🇹 L. Musetti (5) vs 🇷🇸 N. Djokovic (4) [Australian Open – Quarterfinal]

    🇺🇸 B. Shelton (8) vs 🇮🇹 J. Sinner (2) [Australian Open – Quarterfinal]

    🇷🇸 H. Medjedovic vs 🇨🇭 S. Wawrinka [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 V. Royer vs 🇫🇷 A. Fils (6) [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇷🇸 M. Kecmanovic vs 🇪🇸 P. Carreno Busta [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇪🇸 P. Martinez vs 🇫🇷 A. Mannarino [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇬🇪 N. Basilashvili vs 🇮🇹 L. Nardi [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇮🇹 A. Vavassori (Q) vs 🇫🇷 U. Blanchet (LL) [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 M. Kouame (Q) vs 🇺🇸 A. Kovacevic (8) [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 1]

    🇫🇷 U. Humbert (5) vs 🇫🇷 A. Mannarino [Montpellier ATP 250 – Round 2]

    100

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    74

    56

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    (10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

    Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    6461670

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Nikolai Patrushev

    Mikhail Mishustin

    Dmitry Medvedev

    Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

    Aleksey Dyumin

    Sergei Shoigu

    Aleksandr Bortnikov

    Sergey Naryshkin

    Sergei Sobyanin

    Ramzan Kadyrov

    Alexey Navalny

    Yulia Navalny

    44

    13

    10

    7

    7

    5

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    Who will be the 2026 ATP Tour Year End #1 Tennis Player?

    Dec 7, 8:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    1015042

    OptionProbability

    Carlos Alcaraz

    Jannik Sinner

    Novak Djokovic

    Alexander Zverev

    Taylor Fritz

    Casper Ruud

    Alex De Minaur

    Felix Auger-Aliassime

    Daniil Medvedev

    Other

    48

    42

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    2026 Grand Slam Finalists? (men's tennis)

    Jan 4, 4:46 AMSep 13, 10:59 PM
    65417

    OptionProbability

    🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz (1)

    🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic (4)

    🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner (2)

    🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev (3)

    Other

    🇺🇸 Taylor Fritz (9)

    🇮🇹 Lorenzo Musetti (7)

    🇦🇺 Alex de Minaur (6)

    🇳🇴 Casper Ruud (12)

    🇷🇺 Daniil Medvedev (13)

    🇺🇸 Ben Shelton (8)

    🇰🇿 Alexander Bublik (11)

    🇨🇦 Felix Auger-Aliassime (5)

    🇬🇧 Jack Draper (10)

    100

    100

    93

    36

    28

    27

    19

    18

    11

    11

    9

    8

    7

    7

    Will Dmitri Medvedev be the next president of Russia?

    Jan 16, 5:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    3.57%chance
    414796

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3518

    774

    Who will be the next President of Russia, after Vladimir Putin? (fixed)

    Sep 28, 1:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    212713

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Nikolai Patrushev

    Mikhail Mishustin

    Sergei Shoigu

    Dmitry Medvedev

    Sergey Sobyanin

    Alexander Bortnikov

    Boris Nadezhdin

    Dmitry Patrushev

    Aleksey Dyumin

    Sergey Kiriyenko

    Alexander Lukashenko

    Alexei Navalny

    48

    15

    10

    5

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    0

    Who will be the next President of Russia, after Vladimir Putin?

    Oct 22, 9:55 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM
    361309

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Nikolai Patrushev

    Mikhail Mishustin

    Dmitry Medvedev

    Sergei Shoigu

    -- Russian state will be substantially changed --

    Sergey Sobyanin

    Aleksey Dyumin

    -- office of president will be substantially dissolved --

    Sergey Kiriyenko

    Dmitry Patrushev

    Somebody else

    Alexei Navalny

    Alexander Bortnikov

    Yevgeny Prigozhin

    Alexander Lukashenko

    54

    14

    9

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    President of Russia at the end of 2026

    Dec 28, 11:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    8887

    OptionProbability

    Vladimir Putin

    Other

    Mikhail Mishustin

    Dmitry Kozak

    Sergey Lavrov

    Dmitry Medvedev

    Sergei Shoigu

    Vladislav Davankov

    Boris Nadezhdin

    Sergey Sobyanin

    Nikolai Patrushev

    Vyacheslav Volodin

    Nikolay Kharitonov

    Aleksey Dyumin

    84

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Who will lead Russia after Vladimir Putin leaves power?

    May 3, 2:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    16756

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Mikhail Mishustin

    Ivan Melnikov

    Dmitry Patrushev

    Dmitry Medvedev

    Sergey Kiriyenko

    Nikolai Patrushev

    An artificial superintelligence (may or may not control rest of Earth too)

    Alexei Dyumin

    Sergei Sobyanin

    67

    10

    6

    5

    3

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    Who will win the 2030 Russian presidential election?

    Jan 31, 1:49 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM
    21617

    OptionProbability

    Vladimir Putin

    Other

    Sergey Kiriyenko

    Aleksey Dyumin

    No one

    Yulia Navalnaya

    Sergey Naryshkin

    Mikhail Mishustin

    Sergei Shoigu

    Dmitry Medvedev

    Igor Sechin

    39

    23

    11

    10

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    Will Dmirty Medvedev outlive Vladimir Putin?

    Feb 20, 4:36 PMJan 25, 8:59 PM
    70.15%chance
    20393

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1101

    941

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