Michael Peñaloza News

Other

Elon Musk

Bill Gates

Jeff Bezos

Mr. Beast

Barack Obama

Donald Trump

Jensen Huang

Robert Caro

Kamala Harris

Satoshi Nakomoto

Sarah Paine

Sam Altman

Narendra Modi

Gwern Branwen

JD Vance

roon

Geoffrey Hinton

The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

Terence Tao

Ilya Sutskever

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

Tim Cook

Satya Nadella

Justin Trudeau

Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

Xi Jinping

Dalai Lama

Buffett

Taylor Swift

Joe Biden

Lebron James

GPT-5

Bill Clinton

A basketball player

Vladimir Putin

Benjamin Netanyahu

Jesus Christ

Rona Wang

Jose Luis ricon

Kettner Griswold

James Koppel

Sam Bankman-Fried

Nancy Pelosi

Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Jimmy Carter

George W Bush

Al Gore

Michael Jackson

your mom

Mitt Romney

one or both of his parents

A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

Connor Duffy

MBS

pope Francis

Scott Alexander

Leonardo DiCaprio

RFK Jr

Sydney Sweeney

growing_daniel

greg16676935420

Deadpool

Shaq

Oprah Winfrey

Yoshua Bengio

Sundar Pichai

Scarlett Johansson

Paul McCartney

[duplicate]

Neel Nanda

King Charles

Kim Jong Un

Gavin Newsom

Royal Palace

[cancelled option]

Daniel Yergin

Peter Singer

Gabe Newell

Neil Gorsuch

Stephen Breyer

Dmitry Medvedev

JK Rowling

Shrek

Sam Hyde

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

Peter Thiel

Marques Brownlee

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump Jr.

Ben Shindel

Javier Milei

Dylan Patel

Joe Rogan

Marc Andreessen

Mike Tyson

Jake Paul

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Jon Ossoff

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Mark Kelly

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Jared Polis

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Raphael Warnock

Cory Booker

Roy Cooper

Bernie Sanders

Wes Moore

Hakeem Jeffries

Ro Khanna

Mark Cuban

Jon Stewart

Ruben Gallego

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Mitch Landrieu

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Other

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz [resolves NO]

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

AIs never develop coherent goals

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone solves agent foundations

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful

Hacks like RLHF-ing self-disempowerment into frontier models work long enough to develop better alignment methods, which in turn work long enough to ... etc; we keep ahead of 'alignment escape velocity'

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

We successfully chained God

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable

AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"

J. D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Marco Rubio

Josh Hawley

Gretchen Whitmer

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Glenn Youngkin

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

Mark Kelly

Nikki Haley

Wes Moore

Mark Cuban

Stephen Miller

Vivek Ramaswamy

Elise Stefanik

J. B. Pritzker

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Tammy Duckworth

Chris Sununu

Jeff Jackson

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Kristi Noem

Beto O'Rourke

John Fetterman

Tom Cotton

Brian Schatz

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Tammy Baldwin

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Kevin Stitt

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Ted Cruz

Tulsi Gabbard

Joe Rogan

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Jared Polis

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Catherine Cortez Masto

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Katie Hobbs

Spencer Cox

Tate Reeves

Ruben Gallego

Erika Kirk

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Tucker Carlson

Will Hurd

Dan Crenshaw

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Stephen Colbert

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Joe Manchin

Maura Healey

Ivanka Trump

David Hogg

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Ezra Klein

Mark Zuckerberg

Mike Pence

Jon Stewart

DUPLICATE

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Sam Altman

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Tim Walz

Al Gore

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Me

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Larry Ellison

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Masayoshi Son

An AGI

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Other

The Odyssey

Wild Horse Nine

Dune: Part Three

Project Hail Mary

Social Reckoning

Digger

Jack of Spades

Disclosure Day

Fjord

Her Private Hell

Michael

Josephine

Werwulf

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew

Saturn Return

Toy Story 5

Avengers: Doomsday

The Devil Wears Prada 2

The Christophers

Elon Musk

Other

Jeff Bezos

Bernard Arnault

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sergey Brin

Sam Altman

Larry Ellison

Steve Ballmer

William Ding

Michael Saylor

Mohammed bin Salman

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Other

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

AOC

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Kamala Harris

Other candidate with Trump as their last name

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

Nikki Haley

Ron DeSantis

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Chris Christie

Elizabeth Warren

Bernie Sanders

Other Democrat Politician

Other Republican Politician

Kanye West

Michelle Obama

Hillary Clinton

Michael Bloomberg

Elon Musk

Ivanka Trump

Barack Obama

Tulsi Gabbard

John Fetterman

Yekutiel, Manny

McCoy, Gary

Nguyen, Michael

Other

Elon Musk

Other

Larry Ellison

Jeff Bezos

Sam Altman

Mark Zuckerburg

Demis Hassabis

Jensen Huang

Bill Gates

Sam Bankman-Fried

Bernard Arnault

Donald Trump

Vladimir Putin

Austin Chen

Dario Amodei

Vitalik Buterin

Peter Thiel

Paul Graham

Michael Saylor

Matt Canavan

Other

Michael McCormack

Colin Boyce

David Littleproud