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Top stories

HBO Max Sets 8 Jan 2026 Return for Emmy-Nominated “The Pitt”

HBO Max Sets 8 Jan 2026 Return for Emmy-Nominated “The Pitt”

Authors

6

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Michael

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Feb 5, 11:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.14%chance

234002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

921

Will Michael Saylor be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Mar 4, 7:47 PMFeb 5, 4:59 AM

14.83%chance

202697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1443

867

Will Michael Levin win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Jan 3, 8:10 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

46.98%chance

331926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

691

Next Michael Lewis book primarily about prediction markets?

Nov 25, 5:00 PMMar 1, 5:59 AM

15.08%chance

81654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

100

Will Michael Bay make a Skibidi Toilet film by the end of 2028?

Jul 29, 7:50 PMNov 26, 11:59 PM

24.71%chance

171531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

573

Will "Michael" receive any Oscar nominations?

Apr 26, 4:14 PMJan 14, 5:13 PM

45.07%chance

141095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

696

Will Michael Bloomberg (mayor, businessman) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 9, 1:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

121065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2040

861

Will Michael Bailey publish a fraudulent test of the gAyGP thesis by 2032?

Jan 27, 10:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80%chance

11000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

Will there be a Michael Lewis book centering on OpenAI or Sam Altman?

Aug 8, 7:42 PMAug 9, 3:59 AM

19.93%chance

11899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1289

905

Will the Michael Jackson biopic include a white Michael Jackson?

Jan 31, 12:53 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

86.37%chance

17774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1326

868

Will Michael Levin have a paper on bioelectricity or related systems which has over 2000 citations, by mid 2031

Jan 25, 11:12 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.28%chance

10704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

986

Michael's To-Read List

Mar 12, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9368

OptionProbability

Advanced Portfolio Management

[Undisclosed Book for ACX Book Review Contest]

Option Volatility & Pricing

Njal's Saga

The Bostonians

The History of the Peloponnesian War

Middlemarch

Winds of Winter, lmao

The Histories

Dune Books 2, 3 & 4

Children of Time

Romance of the Three Kingdoms

Catch-22

The Crying of Lot 49

The Storm Before the Storm

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