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Top stories

Brazil Supreme Court Orders 24/7 Surveillance of Bolsonaro on Flight-Risk Fears

Brazil Supreme Court Orders 24/7 Surveillance of Bolsonaro on Flight-Risk Fears

Authors

15

1 year ago

Brazilian Federal Police Seize Passport and Cellphone of Silas Malafaia Who Calls Moraes 'Criminal' and Insults Eduardo Bolsonaro

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Moraes

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

184826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11492

9421

Will at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027?

Aug 16, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.04%chance

171578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1602

624

Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?

Mar 26, 1:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.66%chance

351469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

978

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.45%chance

381457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

871

Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?

Sep 12, 8:55 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.93%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing

Jan 29, 5:14 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

55.22%chance

22530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

931

Which STF judge will leave the court with less than 74 years old?

Mar 12, 3:32 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9520

OptionProbability

Luís Roberto Barroso

Alexandre de Moraes

Flávio Dino

Dias Toffoli

Gilmar Mendes

Edson Fachin

Nunes Marques

André Mendonça

Cristiano Zanin

Luiz Fux

Cármen Lúcia

99

59

37

36

34

34

34

34

34

21

12

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.67%chance

25505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

929

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice in 2026?

Mar 12, 12:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.68%chance

11420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

324

31

Will abortion be more morally acceptable among Americans in 2027 than in 2026, according to Gallup?

Jul 1, 5:47 AMJun 30, 4:00 PM

52.06%chance

7204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

960

this is my list of immortals

Feb 29, 1:19 AMNov 1, 2:59 AM

196

OptionProbability

Jimmy Carter

mymango

Juan Vicente Perez Mora

Clint Eastwood

Keir Dullea

Gary Lockwood

Shi Ping

Dick van Dyke

Raul Castro

Dick Cheney

Stanley Baxter

Michael J. Fox

Other

19

17

12

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

Juan Vicente Perez Mora will turn 117 in 2026?

Feb 23, 9:07 PM

00

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