OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Robert Caro
Ajeya Cotra
David Reich
Noam Brown
Jensen Huang
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
roon
Jack Clark
Yann LeCun
Sarah Paine
Nicholas Carlini
Sundar Pichai
Dean Spears
Ilya Sutskever
Joscha Bach
Paul J Werbos
Dean Ball
Michael Dell
Nick Bostrom
Hans Moravec
Demis Hassabis
Satya Nadella
Holden Karnofsky
Sam Altman
Matt Levine
Jeff Bezos
Michael Levin
Amanda Askell
Daniel Kokotajlo
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Ian Morris
Mira Murati
Mustafa Suleyman
Alec Radford
Joe Carlsmith
Carl Shulman
Mark Zuckerberg
Dan Hendrycks
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Zvi Mowshowitz
Andrej Karpathy
George Hotz
Barack Obama
Bill Gates
Tanner Greer
Tamay Besiroglu
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Doris Taylor
Janus @repligate
Scott Alexander
Gary Marcus
François Chollet
Donald Trump
Nate Soares
Helen Toner
Kamala Harris
Bill Clinton
Joe Henrich
Tyler Cowen
100
24
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
112
89
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