Paris News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Paris
OptionProbability
22
22
13
10
7
7
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
Would a Manifold meetup in these cities get 10+ participants this year?
Apr 5, 2:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
98513
OptionProbability
90
69
57
49
41
14
Will the United States Remain Actively Committed to the Paris Agreement by the End of 2025?
Dec 27, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
2.39%chance
216169
OptionVotes
6884
207
Who will be officially announced as a competitor on "Dancing with the Stars" (US) before July 1, 2028?
Aug 20, 9:38 PMJun 30, 7:57 PM
63791
OptionProbability
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
44
43
41
41
41
41
38
37
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
30
28
28
28
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
17
17
16
16
14
10
6
Will university fusion continue in Paris until only 1 huge one remain? (Before Nov. 2027)
Nov 6, 9:48 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM
6.62%chance
8895
OptionVotes
382
78
Ramzan Kadyrov visits and publicly appears in London, Paris, Berlin, New York or Washington DC before 2032
May 11, 7:15 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
9.28%chance
10402
OptionVotes
1247
941
Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?
Oct 27, 2:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
38%chance
13295
OptionVotes
243
185
Will Paris FC qualify for the 2026-2027 edition of the UEFA Champions League?
May 22, 12:59 AMJul 1, 12:58 AM
11.65%chance
5175
OptionVotes
275
36
Will "The Paris AI Anti-Safety Summit" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 13, 5:05 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.04%chance
368
OptionVotes
102
87
Global warming will increase by at least 2.5° in 2050 and crushing the Paris Agreement.
Feb 20, 7:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.84%chance
634
OptionVotes
161
141
Which of these countries will ratify the Paris Agreement before 2030?
Jan 3, 9:17 AMJan 5, 11:59 PM
226
OptionProbability
43
43
37
Will a commercial non-stop flight between Paris and Bali exist before the end of 2027?
Nov 4, 4:11 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
40.98%chance
110
OptionVotes
60
42