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Prediction markets for Patel
OptionProbability
100
100
100
98
95
73
73
70
70
58
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
43
38
36
35
32
31
30
29
28
20
13
3
Will Dwarkesh Patel interview a current or former US President before 2027?
Jun 29, 8:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
46.05%chance
152586
OptionVotes
1082
924
Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
Dec 14, 5:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
17.73%chance
181581
OptionVotes
2154
464
Dwarkesh Patel implicated in conflict of interest scandal by August 4, 2025
May 6, 11:04 PMAug 3, 11:59 PM
1.08%chance
171487
OptionVotes
957
10
OptionProbability
1910
523
Will Dwarkesh Patel's "Notes on China" video reach 1M views by EOY2025?
Mar 5, 7:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.05%chance
15877
OptionVotes
299
33
OptionVotes
1270
787
Will Dwarkesh Patel be a NYT bestselling author before 2027?
Feb 14, 7:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13.75%chance
8180
OptionVotes
250
40
Will Parmita Mishra be interviewed by Lex Fridman OR Dwarkesh Patel by EOY 2030?
Jun 30, 10:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
60.98%chance
125
OptionVotes
125
80
OptionVotes
124
80
Will Jaival Patel win a Thiel Fellowship, Emergent Ventures, Brains Fellows, or Flux Capacitor funding by 2030?
Jun 10, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.98%chance
220
OptionVotes
120
83
If Jose Luis ricon sumo wrestled with dwarkesh Patel, would he win
Jul 6, 5:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
50.5%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
99
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