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Pelosi News

    Prediction markets for Pelosi

    Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?

    Aug 21, 7:36 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    12022710728

    OptionProbability

    Elon Musk

    Bill Gates

    Jeff Bezos

    Mr. Beast

    Barack Obama

    Other

    Sam Altman

    Ilya Sutskever

    Robert Caro

    Donald Trump

    Gwern Branwen

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    JD Vance

    pope Francis

    Jensen Huang

    Kamala Harris

    Buffett

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Peter Thiel

    No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

    Sarah Paine

    Satya Nadella

    Justin Trudeau

    Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)

    Narendra Modi

    Xi Jinping

    Dalai Lama

    Taylor Swift

    Joe Biden

    Lebron James

    GPT-5

    Bill Clinton

    A basketball player

    Vladimir Putin

    Jesus Christ

    Rona Wang

    Jose Luis ricon

    Kettner Griswold

    James Koppel

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    Nancy Pelosi

    Rishi Sunak

    Keir Starmer

    Satoshi Nakomoto

    Jimmy Carter

    George W Bush

    Al Gore

    Michael Jackson

    your mom

    roon

    Mitt Romney

    one or both of his parents

    A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"

    Connor Duffy

    MBS

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Scott Alexander

    The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)

    Leonardo DiCaprio

    RFK Jr

    Sydney Sweeney

    growing_daniel

    greg16676935420

    Deadpool

    Terence Tao

    Shaq

    Oprah Winfrey

    Yoshua Bengio

    Sundar Pichai

    Scarlett Johansson

    Paul McCartney

    [duplicate]

    Neel Nanda

    King Charles

    Kim Jong Un

    Gavin Newsom

    Royal Palace

    [cancelled option]

    Daniel Yergin

    Peter Singer

    Gabe Newell

    Neil Gorsuch

    Stephen Breyer

    Dmitry Medvedev

    JK Rowling

    Shrek

    Sam Hyde

    [invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

    Marques Brownlee

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Ben Shindel

    Javier Milei

    Dylan Patel

    Joe Rogan

    Marc Andreessen

    Tim Cook

    Mike Tyson

    Jake Paul

    Matt Gaetz

    18

    14

    11

    9

    8

    7

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Scott Wiener

    Other

    Christine Pelosi

    Bruce Lou

    Jane Kim

    Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

    64

    20

    14

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Mainstream Media

    Letitia James

    January 6th Committee

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    LQBTQ / Trans People

    Migrants

    The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

    Elon Musk

    Anthony Fauci

    Gen. Mark Milley

    Universities

    Paper straws

    Blinken

    Maine

    Due Process

    Alejandro Mayorkas

    Jack Smith

    Zohran Mamdani

    Leakers

    National Institutes of Health

    Bruce Springsteen

    The New York Times (NYT)

    Panama

    Alexander Vindman

    Solar Energy

    Stephen Colbert

    Joe Biden

    The Atlantic

    Greenland

    Barack Obama

    Beyoncé

    Ann Selzer

    the National Archives

    Rosie O'Donnell

    Michael Cohen

    Fluoride

    Nancy Pelosi

    Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

    Denmark

    Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

    John Kelly

    Public Libraries

    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    Miles Taylor

    Democratic Republic of the Congo

    Bill Barr

    Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

    Seth Myers

    Taylor Swift

    Vaccine mandates

    Emmanuel Macron

    Jimmy Kimmel

    Christopher Steele

    Wikipedia

    Ken Klippenstein

    TIME magazine

    Susan Collins (R-ME)

    Any Manifold User

    Mike Pence

    Jeff Bezos

    Mariann Edgar Budde

    Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

    SSRIs

    WIRED Magazine

    Liz Cheney

    E. Jean Carroll

    Tucker Carlson

    Brad Raffensperger

    BlueSky

    American sign language signers or interpreters

    JD Vance

    The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

    Pete Hegseth

    Black Nationals

    Alec Baldwin

    Chappell Roan

    Bill Burr

    Not Elected

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    93

    85

    83

    83

    82

    81

    80

    78

    76

    74

    73

    70

    68

    65

    63

    62

    60

    60

    58

    55

    54

    53

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    43

    40

    38

    37

    35

    33

    31

    31

    29

    28

    28

    27

    27

    26

    26

    25

    24

    23

    20

    19

    19

    19

    17

    14

    12

    12

    12

    10

    6

    4

    3

    2

    0

    OptionProbability

    Jimmy Carter

    Pope Francis

    Alexei Navalny

    Iris Apfel

    Carl Weathers

    Richard Lewis

    Damo Suzuki

    Kelvin Kiptum

    Bob Moore

    Akira Toriyama

    John Barnett (Boeing Whistleblower)

    Daniel Kahneman

    Peter Higgs

    David Lynch

    Dan Wakefield

    Kenneth Anger

    Ethel Kennedy

    Juan Vicente Perez

    William Bill Post (inventor of poptart)

    Ozzy Osborne

    Rosa Tarlovsky de Roisinblit

    Steve Albini

    Noam Chomsky

    Clint Eastwood

    Tippi Hendren

    Brian Wilson

    Alice Munro

    Gene Hackman

    Roger Penrose

    Mel Brooks

    Mike Tyson

    Milan Panić

    William Shatner

    Warren Buffett

    Julio Iglesias

    Dick van Dyke

    Nancy Pelosi

    Akihito

    Bruce Willis

    King Charles III

    Tomiichi Murayama

    Ringo Starr

    Joe Biden

    Meryl Streep

    Alan Greenspan

    Mahmoud Abbas

    Keith Richards

    Thomas Pynchon

    Dick Cheney

    Bernie Sanders

    Roman Polanski

    Klaus Schwab

    Paul McCartney

    Bob Dylan

    Howard Stern

    @Tumbles

    Larry David

    Charles E. Grassley

    Ban Ki-moon

    Slavoj Zizek

    Stephen Breyer

    Judge Judy Sheindlin

    Joe Pesci

    Volodymyr Zelensky

    Yaroslav Hunka

    Anwar Raslan

    Raul Castro

    Bill Gates

    George Bush

    Thomas Eugene Creech

    James D. Worley

    Imelda Marcos

    George RR Martin

    Al Pacino

    Mitch McConnell

    Clarence Thomas

    Bill Cosby

    Matt Groening

    Vladimir Putin

    Woody Allen

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Bill Clinton

    David Berkowitz (son of sam)

    Dennis Rader (btk)

    Ron Jeremy

    Dan Schneider

    Angela Merkel

    Gary Glitter

    chris (strutheo)

    Donald Trump

    Anita Bryant

    Toby Keith

    Twomad

    Sebastián Piñera

    Joe Lieberman

    OJ Simpson

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    95

    76

    71

    66

    65

    64

    52

    50

    49

    47

    45

    45

    42

    38

    37

    37

    33

    30

    27

    23

    22

    20

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    15

    15

    14

    14

    14

    13

    13

    13

    12

    12

    11

    11

    11

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Twomad

    O. J. Simpson

    Anita Bryant

    James D. Worley

    Thomas Eugene Creech

    Raul Castro

    William James Pye

    Scott Adams (Dilbert Cartoonist)

    Yaroslav Hunka

    Jose Luis Ricon

    Clarence Thomas

    Robert Bowers (Pittsburgh synagogue gunman)

    Dennis Rader (btk)

    Milan Panić

    Bill Cosby

    Dick Cheney

    Mitch McConnell

    David Berkowitz (son of sam)

    Joe Arpaio

    Ron Jeremy

    Mike Tyson

    King Charles III

    Tomiichi Murayama

    Gary Glitter

    Noam Chomsky

    Clint Eastwood

    William Bill Post (inventor of poptart)

    Mahmoud Abbas

    Clarence Thomas

    George Bush

    Paul McCartney

    Brett Kavanaugh

    Judge Judy Sheindlin

    Vladimir Putin

    Donald Trump

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Charles E. Grassley

    Anwar Raslan

    Howard Stern

    Alan Greenspan

    Bruce Willis

    Samuel Alito

    Woody Allen

    Roman Polanski

    Klaus Schwab

    Akihito

    Slavoj Zizek

    Ringo Starr

    Joe Biden

    Nancy Pelosi

    Ban Ki-moon

    Keith Richards

    Ethel Kennedy

    Tippi Hendren

    Dan Schneider

    Matt Groening

    Mel Brooks

    William Shatner

    Meryl Streep

    Thomas Pynchon

    Toby Keith

    Volodymyr Zelensky

    Warren Buffett

    Bernie Sanders

    Joe Pesci

    Al Pacino

    Neil Gorsuch

    Bill Clinton

    Dick van Dyke

    Angela Merkel

    Stephen Breyer

    Pope Francis

    Larry David

    Bob Dylan

    Gene Hackman

    George RR Martin

    Bill Gates

    Amy Coney Barrett

    Jimmy Carter

    Alexei Navalny

    Iris Apfel

    Carl Weathers

    Richard Lewis

    Kelvin Kiptum

    Juan Vicente Perez

    Bob Moore

    Sebastián Piñera

    Daniel Kahneman

    Joe Lieberman

    100

    100

    97

    83

    80

    75

    73

    66

    54

    52

    44

    43

    39

    31

    27

    26

    26

    25

    24

    23

    23

    21

    21

    21

    20

    18

    18

    17

    17

    14

    14

    14

    13

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    12

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2025 Death Pool

    Jan 2, 4:21 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
    4811995

    OptionProbability

    Pope Francis

    Scott Adams

    Noam Chomsky

    Dick Van Dyke

    David Attenborough

    Mel Brooks

    Clint Eastwood

    Warren Buffet

    Cliff Richards

    William Shatner

    Eva Marie Saint

    Thomas Sowell

    Joe Biden

    Bruce Willis

    Rita Moreno

    King Charles

    Yoko Ono

    Shirley MacLaine

    Julio Iglesias

    Jack Nicholson

    Donald Trump

    Elon Musk

    Nancy Pelosi

    Vladimir Putin

    Kate Middleton

    100

    74

    64

    26

    24

    23

    22

    20

    20

    19

    19

    16

    15

    15

    13

    12

    12

    11

    10

    8

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    Who will win the 2040 US Presidential elections?

    Apr 27, 12:23 AMDec 4, 7:59 AM
    253516

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez

    AI

    There will not be a 2040 US presidential election

    Mr. Beast

    Destiny

    Nikil Saval

    Maxwell Frost

    Matt Gaetz

    JD Vance

    Barren Trump

    Taylor Swift

    Jon Ossoff

    @ZacParker

    Mr. Beat

    Nancy Pelosi

    88

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will Nancy pelosi become a centenarian?

    Feb 21, 11:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    10.09%chance
    221153

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1685

    879

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1695

    920

    OptionProbability

    Chuck Grassley

    Clarence Thomas

    Sonya Sotomayor

    Samuel Alito

    John Roberts

    Nancy Pelosi

    Angus King

    Kay Ivey

    Mitch McConnell

    Bernie Sanders

    Donald Trump

    75

    41

    41

    38

    37

    34

    31

    31

    28

    19

    10

    Nancy Pelosi alive in 2028?

    Apr 9, 3:03 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM
    85.61%chance
    15417

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    244

    41

    Will Nancy Pelosi run for reelection in 2026?

    Nov 11, 12:07 AMNov 11, 7:59 AM
    58.12%chance
    16343

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    118

    85

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