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Prediction markets for Peter Jackson
Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
68.62%chance
211582
OptionVotes
1331
784
Will interventions motivated by aliens, simulation arguments, acausal trade, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:54 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
14.86%chance
9344
OptionVotes
491
223
Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
35.72%chance
13340
OptionVotes
1164
891
Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
65.15%chance
7311
OptionVotes
228
200
Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
26.9%chance
10282
OptionVotes
409
180
Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
71.93%chance
11255
OptionVotes
344
223
Will farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 2:49 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
75.86%chance
10207
OptionVotes
399
199
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.79%chance
14181
OptionVotes
1013
986
Will approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc, get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 3:04 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
43.34%chance
7146
OptionVotes
279
171
Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:26 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
52.08%chance
8132
OptionVotes
265
178
Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
60.23%chance
6111
OptionVotes
222
153
Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
64.69%chance
5110
OptionVotes
356
226