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Top stories

Nearly 500 Illegal Miners Arrested at Sheba Gold Mine in Mpumalanga Under Operation Vala Mgodi; Court Appearances Ongoing

Nearly 500 Illegal Miners Arrested at Sheba Gold Mine in Mpumalanga Under Operation Vala Mgodi; Court Appearances Ongoing

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4

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Peter Major

Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?

Nov 13, 6:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.59%chance

574197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

238

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

79.95%chance

73854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

972

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.06%chance

233123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3255

688

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.04%chance

201201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

686

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.75%chance

22858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

906

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.51%chance

17593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

857

If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?

Mar 11, 3:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

13458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

520

178

Will Iran attack Saudi Arabia before 2026?

Oct 22, 12:55 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.98%chance

14420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

29

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.44%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

157

Will Cemu emulator have an Android version by the end of 2025?

Aug 2, 9:23 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

89.94%chance

4224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

33

Will Peter Thiel become a featured NPC in a major AAA game title (like GTA 6) by 2027?

May 13, 10:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

75

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