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Polis News

    Prediction markets for Polis

    In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

    Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    94.44%chance
    27212587387

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    20346

    822

    Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

    Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM
    19132267927

    OptionProbability

    Jon Ossoff

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Other

    Gavin Newsom

    Kamala Harris

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Andy Beshear

    Mark Kelly

    Gretchen Whitmer

    J.B. Pritzker

    Raphael Warnock

    Michelle Obama

    Bernie Sanders

    Wes Moore

    Ro Khanna

    Hunter Biden

    None

    John Fetterman

    Hillary Clinton

    Joe Biden

    Jeff Jackson

    Jared Polis

    Amy Klobuchar

    Cory Booker

    Mitch Landrieu

    Roy Cooper

    Dianne Feinstein

    Jimmy Carter

    Tim Walz

    Chuck Schumer

    Tim Kaine

    Tammy Duckworth

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Elizabeth Warren

    Michael Bloomberg

    Dwayne Johnson

    [Duplicate - Invalid]

    Hakeem Jeffries

    Andrew Yang

    Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

    Dean Phillips

    Bob Ferguson

    Jay Inslee

    Kathy Hochul

    Anthony Blinken

    Susan Rice

    Scott Wiener

    Donald Trump

    Sam Altman

    Jeff Merkley

    Merrick Garland

    Taylor Swift

    Tammy Baldwin

    Katie Porter

    Phil Murphy

    Cenk Uygur

    Mark Cuban

    Jamie Raskin

    Joe Manchin

    Sherrod Brown

    Chris Murphy

    Brian Schatz

    John Bel Edwards

    Clark Duke

    Stacey Abrams

    Nina Turner

    john smith

    Jon Stewart

    Duplicate ignore

    Gina Raimondo

    Ron Desantis

    Beto O'Rourke

    Vermin Supreme

    Invalid answer

    John Jacob

    Alex Jones

    Bob Roberston the IV

    Ruben Gallego

    Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

    Stephen A Smith

    26

    15

    14

    12

    5

    5

    4

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be elected president in 2028?

    Apr 24, 1:23 AMNov 7, 12:00 AM
    21291923855

    OptionProbability

    Jon Ossoff

    J.D. Vance

    Marco Rubio

    Other

    Gavin Newsom

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Kamala Harris

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Ron DeSantis

    Andy Beshear

    JB Pritzker

    Donald Trump

    Raphael Warnock

    Tucker Carlson

    Ro Khanna

    Chris Van Hollen

    Joe Rogan

    Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

    Ted Cruz

    Amy Klobuchar

    Kanye West

    Hunter Biden

    Mike Pence

    Jared Polis

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Mark Kelly

    Bernie Sanders

    Greg Abbott

    Nikki Haley

    No 2028 Election

    Stacey Abrams

    Glenn Youngkin

    Elizabeth Warren

    Cory Booker

    Roy Cooper

    Tim Scott

    Mitch Landrieu

    Michelle Lujan Grisham

    Ruben Gallego

    Katie Porter

    Joe Biden

    Ration L. Ussy

    Wes Moore

    Mark Cuban

    Tim Walz

    RFK Jr.

    Tetraspace

    Lina Khan

    Shawn Fain

    Donald Trump Jr

    Elon Musk

    Ritchie Torres

    Taylor Swift

    Barack Obama

    Chris Murphy

    Stephen A. Smith

    Mickey Mouse

    Ivanka Trump

    Barron Trump

    Laura Loomer

    Abigail Spanberger

    Sam Altman

    John Fetterman

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Al Gore

    Kathy Hochul

    [deleted]

    Josh Hawley

    Rahm Emmanuel

    Ezra Klein

    Tim Kaine

    invalid

    Brian Kemp

    David McCormick

    Andrew Yang

    Anna Paulina Luna

    Amaryllis Fox

    AI Overlord

    Duplicate - Will Resolve No

    Duplicate - Will Resolve No

    Mike Johnson

    Steven Bonell (Destiny)

    Jamie Dimon

    Abrego Garcia

    Andrew Cuomo

    Invalid

    invalid

    Deval Patrick

    Jasmine Crockett

    Oprah Winfrey

    Michelle Obama

    Sheldon Whitehouse

    Robert Prevost

    Harambe

    Josh Stein

    Jeff Jackson

    Rand Paul

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Elissa Slotkin

    19

    13

    11

    10

    9

    9

    4

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2028 Democratic nominee?

    Sep 14, 5:11 AMSep 6, 6:59 AM
    452442400

    OptionProbability

    Jon Ossoff

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Other

    Gavin Newsom

    Kamala Harris

    Pete Buttigieg

    Josh Shapiro

    Andy Beshear

    Mark Kelly

    James Talarico

    JB Pritzker

    Rahm Emanuel

    Ro Khanna

    Raphael Warnock

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Cory Booker

    No 2028 Election

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Tim Walz

    Jared Polis

    Stephen A. Smith

    Ruben Gallego

    26

    14

    13

    12

    6

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Other

    JD Vance

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Gavin Newsom

    Pete Buttigieg

    Ron DeSantis

    Kamala Harris

    Josh Shapiro

    Tucker Carlson

    Donald Trump

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Andy Beshear

    JB Pritzker

    Nikki Haley

    Mark Kelly

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Mark Cuban

    Ruben Gallego

    None

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Joe Biden

    Tim Scott

    Katie Hobbs

    Greg Abbott

    Elizabeth Warren

    Mike Johnson

    Ted Cruz

    Mike Pence

    Jared Polis

    Michelle Obama

    Ivanka Trump

    Elon Musk

    Sam Altman

    Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

    Elise Stefanik

    Kristi Noem

    Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

    Nicole Shanahan

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Scott Alexander

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Aella

    Jamie Dimon

    George Clooney

    Tom Hanks

    Steven Pinker

    Patrick Stewart

    George R R Martin

    Noah Smith

    Matt Yglesias

    Kanye West

    Doug Burgum

    Jeff Jackson

    Glenn Youngkin

    Tim Walz

    John Fetterman

    Barack Obama

    Oprah Winfrey

    Hillary Clinton

    Joe Rogan

    Ro Khanna

    43

    14

    10

    8

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

    May 1, 10:23 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM
    513282243

    OptionProbability

    Jon Ossoff

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Gavin Newsom

    Other

    Kamala Harris

    Pete Buttigieg

    Josh Shapiro

    Andy Beshear

    Mark Kelly

    James Talarico

    JB Pritzker

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Michelle Obama

    Rahm Emanuel

    There won't be a real election because of MAGA fascism

    Wes Moore

    Chris Van Hollen

    Ro Khanna

    Andrew Yang

    Bernie Sanders

    John Stewart

    Luigi Mangione @LuigiMangione

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Colin Allred

    Raphael Warnock

    Jared Polis

    Tim Walz

    Amy Klobuchar

    Connor Duffy

    [Invalid - Duplicate]

    Yishan Wong

    Adolf Hitler

    Mark Cuban

    Andrew Cuomo

    John Fetterman

    Stephen A. Smith

    Ritchie Torres

    Elissa Slotkin

    Jill Biden

    Invalid

    Jasmine Crockett

    Cory Booker

    Invalid

    Ruben Gallego

    Hakeem Jeffries

    Matthew Robert Patrick (MatPat)

    Zohran Mamdani

    Jacob Frey

    Noam Chomsky

    Mikie Sherrill

    Taylor Swift

    Liz Cheney

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Ezra Klein

    Invalid

    Josh Green

    Chris Murphy

    Jamie Dimon

    George Washington

    Paris Hilton

    Donald Trump

    George Clooney

    Bob brooks

    26

    15

    13

    7

    6

    6

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

    Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM
    268219925

    OptionProbability

    Democratic Party

    Republican Party

    Other Party

    67

    32

    1

    OptionProbability

    J. D. Vance

    Gavin Newsom

    Josh Shapiro

    Pete Buttigieg

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Jon Ossoff

    Josh Hawley

    KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

    Glenn Youngkin

    Tucker Carlson

    Andy Beshear

    Kamala Harris

    Marco Rubio

    J. B. Pritzker

    Mark Kelly

    James Talarico

    Ron DeSantis

    Elise Stefanik

    Wes Moore

    Stephen Miller

    Nikki Haley

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Raphael Warnock

    Gina Raimondo

    Ro Khanna

    Chris Murphy

    Tammy Duckworth

    Chris Sununu

    Jeff Jackson

    Donald Trump Jr.

    James Donaldson (MrBeast)

    Sam Altman

    Tim Scott

    Brian Kemp

    Kristi Noem

    Cory Booker

    Beto O'Rourke

    John Fetterman

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Tom Cotton

    Brian Schatz

    Joni Ernst

    Michael Bennet

    Tammy Baldwin

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Josh Green

    Tina Kotek

    Ted Cruz

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Joe Rogan

    Jay Inslee

    Deval Patrick

    Eric Swalwell

    Wayne Messam

    Jared Polis

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Julian Castro

    Dean Phillips

    Katie Britt

    Laphonza Butler

    Eric Schmitt

    Mike Lee

    Catherine Cortez Masto

    Chris Coons

    Tim Kaine

    Lisa Murkowski

    Katie Hobbs

    Spencer Cox

    Tate Reeves

    Ruben Gallego

    Mark Cuban

    Erika Kirk

    Will Hurd

    Dan Crenshaw

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    Amy Klobuchar

    Andrew Yang

    Ezra Klein

    Stephen Colbert

    Stephen Curry

    Markwayne Mullin

    Rand Paul

    Joe Manchin

    Kevin Stitt

    Maura Healey

    Ivanka Trump

    David Hogg

    Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

    Taylor Swift

    Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

    Matt Gaetz

    Marianne Williamson

    Mike Pence

    Jon Stewart

    DUPLICATE

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Aella

    Scott Alexander

    Zendaya

    Michelle Obama

    Kanye West

    Mitt Romney

    Sarah Palin

    Ben Shapiro

    Bernie Sanders

    Hillary Clinton

    Tim Walz

    Al Gore

    Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

    Me

    Krantz (the user @Krantz)

    35

    18

    18

    15

    13

    12

    12

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Politically Provoked Brittany Stock

    Nov 3, 1:14 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM
    15222052

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    2289

    1548

    OptionProbability

    >1 Billion market cap in first 24 hours of trading

    Trading volume is part of airdrop formula

    Active time on Polymarket is part of airdrop formula

    Number of markets traded is part of airdrop formula

    >5 Billion market cap in first 24 hours of trading

    >10 Billion market cap in first 24 hours of trading

    Token has utility related to resolving markets

    >25 Billion market cap in first 24 hours of trading

    76

    61

    54

    50

    50

    50

    50

    43

    Jared Polis Stock

    Aug 15, 3:02 PMAug 16, 4:59 AM
    433

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    71

    69

    Will $POLY replace UMA?

    Mar 9, 11:52 AMDec 31, 12:51 PM
    54.75%chance
    110

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    110

    91

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