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Prediction markets for Pu
A major publication is doing a profile on me. Will it be a hit piece?
Oct 10, 4:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.97%chance
289119619
OptionVotes
14053
7799
OptionVotes
36825
7424
(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?
Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
6361665
OptionProbability
44
13
10
7
7
5
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?
Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
23.59%chance
29058720
OptionVotes
20107
2769
EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?
Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
3348416
OptionProbability
31
27
24
17
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.99%chance
10741945
OptionVotes
11036
9044
Apple announces AI company purchase for over $500m by end of 2025
Jan 3, 3:01 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM
45.38%chance
18228003
OptionVotes
6107
3622
Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?
Mar 31, 9:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
15.22%chance
14624745
OptionVotes
9509
5616
Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?
Aug 13, 1:00 PMAug 13, 10:59 PM
50.64%chance
12418008
OptionVotes
3383
3216
Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?
Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM
28.4%chance
1110113
OptionVotes
15879
6298
OptionVotes
13891
7199
OptionProbability
50
50
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