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OptionProbability
Citizen Kane
Schindler's List
The Godfather
Casablanca
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
The Shawshank Redemption
Gone with the Wind
Vertigo
The Wizard of Oz
City Lights
The Sound of Music
West Side Story
Lawrence of Arabia
Bridge on the River Kwai
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
It Happened One Night
The Graduate
To Kill a Mockingbird
All About Eve
The Maltese Falcon
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Jaws
Star Wars
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Some Like it Hot
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
Apocalypse Now
Godfather Part II
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
Dr Strangelove
A Streetcar Named Desire
Rear Window
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Rocky
The Gold Rush
Sullivan's Travels
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
Chinatown
High Noon
Intolerance
Nashville
Shane
Duck Soup
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
The Searchers
Saving Private Ryan
A Clockwork Orange
Cabaret
Tootsie
American Graffiti
Pulp Fiction
Platoon
Silence of the Lambs
Titanic
12 Angry Men
The Sixth Sense
Goodfellas
Do The Right Thing
Toy Story
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
In the Heat of the Night
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
Spartacus
A Night at the Opera
Swing Time
Sophie's Choice
The Last Picture Show
The Best Years of our Lives
All the President's Men
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Easy Rider
Bringing Up Baby
Yankee Doodle Dandy
The Apartment
Forrest Gump
Blade Runner
Ben-Hur
The French Connection
97
97
96
96
96
96
96
95
95
95
94
94
94
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
91
91
91
91
91
91
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
90
89
88
88
88
88
87
87
87
87
86
86
86
85
84
81
80
80
78
78
76
74
74
74
74
74
74
74
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
65
65
65
65
65
65
63
57
56
56
47
OptionProbability
Slime Rancher 3
Red Dead Redemption 3
Half Life 3
Alan Wake 3
Risk of Rain 3
Overcooked 3
Death Stranding 3
Hades 3
Helldivers 3
Dead Island 3
Destiny 3
Banjo Kazooie 3
Remnant 3
Guild Wars 3
Rivals of Aether 3
Slay the Spire 3
Frostpunk 3
Titanfall 3
Supreme Commander 3
Chameleon Twist 3
World of Goo 3
Starcraft 3
Left 4 Dead 3
Super Mario Galaxy 3
Battle for Middle Earth 3
Overwatch 3
Hello Neighbor 3
Team Fortress 3
Bioshock 3
Portal 3
Planetside 3
Counter Strike 3
Hotline Miami 3
Prison Architect 3
80
79
78
73
70
70
69
67
58
57
54
53
50
50
50
50
49
45
45
44
43
42
42
41
36
35
34
32
28
27
24
20
6
4
OptionProbability
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
NASDAQ hits an all time high
noam chomsky alive until end of month
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
EF3+ Rated Tornado Impacts the US
starship launch
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
Donald Trump mentions Obama's birth certificate
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
trump leaves usa at least once
silksong game release date announced
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
a war starts or ends
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
@JDVance1 earns >2k mana
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
ukraine russia ceasefire
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
israel hamas ceasefire
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
silksong game releases
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
destiny goes on joe rogan
luffy finds the one piece
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
@realDonaldTrump is shot!
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
another indictment or charges announced against trump
100
100
99
99
99
99
95
94
90
81
69
69
60
60
59
54
50
50
49
46
40
32
31
31
30
29
26
25
25
19
17
15
14
14
6
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
dick cheney still alive at end of month
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
trump leaves usa at least once
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
noam chomsky alive until end of month
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
NASDAQ hits an all time high
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
starship launch
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
destiny goes on joe rogan
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Measles outbreak in the United States (+500 cases)
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
israel hamas ceasefire
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
another indictment or charges announced against trump
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
silksong game release date announced
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
silksong game releases
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
ukraine russia ceasefire
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
luffy finds the one piece
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
99
99
99
90
87
84
80
69
69
69
69
67
57
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
40
39
31
31
31
31
31
31
28
24
24
21
20
20
20
20
14
14
11
11
8
6
5
4
2
2
OptionProbability
High Noon
The Gold Rush
Sophie's Choice
Goodfellas
The French Connection
Pulp Fiction
The Last Picture Show
Do The Right Thing
Blade Runner
Yankee Doodle Dandy
Toy Story
Ben-Hur
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Chinatown
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
To Kill a Mockingbird
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
The Maltese Falcon
Godfather Part II
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
Bridge on the River Kwai
The Best Years of our Lives
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Sound of Music
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
Shane
It Happened One Night
A Streetcar Named Desier
Rear Window
Intolerance
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
West Side Story
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Jaws
Rocky
Nashville
Duck Soup
Sullivan's Travels
American Graffiti
Cabaret
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
Tootsie
A Clockwork Orange
Saving Private Ryan
The Shawshank Redemption
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Silence of the Lambs
In the Heat of the Night
Forrest Gump
All the President's Men
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
The Apartment
Spartacus
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Titanic
Easy Rider
A Night at the Opera
Platoon
12 Angry Men
Bringing Up Baby
The Sixth Sense
Swing Tie
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
Vertigo
City Lights
The Searchers
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The Graduate
Dr Strangelove
Some Like it Hot
Schindler's List
The Wizard of Oz
Apocalypse Now
Star Wars
All About Eve
Lawrence of Arabia
Gone with the Wind
Casablanca
The Godfather
Citizen Kane
66
62
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
41
38
34
34
34
33
32
28
27
25
19
16
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
starship launch
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
silksong game releases
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
NASDAQ hits an all time high
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
destiny goes on joe rogan
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
noam chomsky alive until end of month
trump leaves usa at least once
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
ukraine russia ceasefire
luffy finds the one piece
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
another indictment or charges announced against trump
israel hamas ceasefire
silksong game release date announced
usa troops enter lebanon
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
usa troops enter syria
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
98
92
90
90
83
72
72
69
69
69
69
69
50
50
50
50
50
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
26
21
20
20
20
20
14
14
14
14
14
8
8
8
8
7
6
5
3
OptionProbability
Dust Storm 🌪️
Vehicle Breakdown 🚗
Lost Camp Members 🔍
Extreme Heat 🥵
Power Outage ⚡
Medical Emergency 🚑
Food Poisoning 🤢
Plague (🐸 / 🪳 / 🍤 )
Theft / Burglary 🔒
Structural Collapse 🏚️
Water Shortage 💧
Fire 🔥
Sexual Assault 🚩
Rain 🌧️ / Flooding
Psychotic Break 🧠 ⚡️
94
85
83
71
66
58
55
37
34
27
25
24
23
9
6
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
starship launch
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
trump leaves usa at least once
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
noam chomsky alive until end of month
NASDAQ hits an all time high
ukraine russia ceasefire
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
destiny goes on joe rogan
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
israel hamas ceasefire
luffy finds the one piece
another indictment or charges announced against trump
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
silksong game releases
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
silksong game release date announced
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
98
90
90
80
80
69
69
69
69
63
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
42
42
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
20
20
20
20
14
14
14
10
10
8
5
3
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
dick cheney still alive at end of month
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
NASDAQ hits an all time high
starship launch
trump leaves usa at least once
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
ukraine russia ceasefire
israel hamas ceasefire
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
luffy finds the one piece
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
another indictment or charges announced against trump
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
destiny goes on joe rogan
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
silksong game releases
silksong game release date announced
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
99
98
92
80
69
69
69
69
63
63
58
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
20
20
20
20
20
14
14
14
10
10
6
OptionProbability
Jofra Archer plays at least one test
Harry Brook gets a ton
Sydney gets rain
Stokes isn’t captain for all the games
One test match has a winner by innings
Sydney is a Draw
Pat Cummins doesn’t play all 5 tests
Complaint about red Westpac Logo on Players Shirts
Someone announces retirement
Usman is dropped during the series
5 test debutants or more
4 test debutants or less
England doesn’t win a game
Someone gets concussed
Jamie Smith makes a ton
Aus Win 5-0
Jofra breaks someone’s bone
83
76
66
66
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
44
41
34
24
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
174
164
OptionProbability
Australia Win Game
Australia Win Toss
Australia Bat First
Someone announces retirement during the game
Winner by innings
Smith 100
Hazelwood 5fa
Lose a whole day due to rain
Root 100
Draw
66
50
50
50
34
34
34
34
34
34
