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Saar News

    Prediction markets for Saar

    OptionProbability

    Alina Chan

    Yuri Deigin

    Saar Wilf

    Joscha Bach

    Zeynep Tufecki

    Jesse Bloom

    Sam Harris

    Nate Silver

    Richard Hanania

    Ralph Baric

    Zvi Mowshowitz

    Matt Yglesias

    Scott Aaronson

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Scott Alexander

    Philipp Markolin

    Michael Worobey

    Kristian Andersen

    80

    72

    71

    66

    61

    50

    45

    40

    30

    16

    14

    13

    10

    8

    7

    7

    3

    1

    OptionProbability

    If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

    If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

    If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >50% but <90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

    If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <50% but >10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

    Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabalistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2027

    Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2025

    Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2026

    45

    17

    13

    13

    5

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Alex Saar

    Stephon Castle

    Donovan Clingan

    Matas Buzelis

    Rob Dillingham

    Reed Sheppard

    50

    50

    50

    50

    37

    37

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