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Prediction markets for Saied
Will Saikat Chakrabarti be elected to Congress in 2026?
Aug 27, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1.36%chance
2010611
OptionVotes
8525
117
OptionVotes
1177
598
OptionProbability
90
90
90
86
86
80
80
69
69
59
55
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37
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Will a public DNA verification, if conducted, prove that Ahmed Nur Said Elmi is Ilhan Omar's brother?
Oct 23, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
40.59%chance
13665
OptionVotes
1210
826
Will "Banning Said Achmiz (and broader thoughts on ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Aug 23, 1:44 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10.3%chance
2350
OptionVotes
1350
952
OptionProbability
98
1
1
0
0
Will "I said hello and greeted 1,000 people at 5am ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 9, 9:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.16%chance
2300
OptionVotes
1250
964
OptionProbability
235
95
NFL Week 9: Will New Orleans Saints beat Cleveland Browns by 3 or more points?
Nov 3, 11:33 PMNov 8, 5:57 PM
50.15%chance
3129
OptionVotes
1003
997
Will "Why Latter-day Saints Have Strong Communities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 12, 3:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.49%chance
3110
OptionVotes
1038
994
Will anyone successfully incorporate a light sail into the optical cavity of a laser before 2035?
Oct 10, 8:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
52.69%chance
482
OptionVotes
92
87
Will Kais Saied still be head of state of Tunisia in 2031?
May 31, 7:27 PMMay 28, 7:02 AM
54.75%chance
110
OptionVotes
111
92